While sometimes tongue-in-cheek (better than sneezing-in-hand), here is a useful (I hope) compendium about the thing literally filling the air: CoVid19–with links to authoritative sites or solid opinions, as a figurative antidote to what I see and hear on social and mass media.
Should I even care about CoVid19? Are you old or infirm (or especially a smoking man), then yes. Much like the flu, the virus seems to prey on those already at the edge of health. CoVid19 seems to be uniquely sexist, attacking and felling men far more often than women. I hope someone brings the appropriate lawsuit in the US Ninth District Court. If the virus gets into the US court system, it will never get back out. If you’re young or healthy, you should have the same view of coronavirus as you do of the seasonal flu: you don’t want it, you’ll be unhappy if you get it, and you’ll be angry at the friend who gave it to you. End of story.
Isn’t CoVid19 more contagious and more deadly than the flu? No one knows yet. See, the problem here is any analysis you see about lethality or contagion rates is based upon data from China. Data from China is similar in accuracy and precision to news from the National Enquirer: it’s not that it can’t be correct, just that even they don’t know if it is correct. China has a long history of doctoring data to fit the government’s line. Furthermore, there is the so-called denominator problem (sorry, I never promised there would be no math!). CoVid19 is not like a disease in the pandemic movies where people just drop dead (and are therefore easy to count) but rather the kind where eighty percent have a cough, a fever, and perhaps shortness of breath. Some will even be asymptomatic: infected with nothing to show for it! So the number of people infected may be far higher than even the Chinese can count–and they count in billions, remember–because millions of Chinese just thought they were a little hungover, or the smog was really bad last week, or whatever, and they never went to the hospital or were tested. Thus the denominator (the number below, in the fraction) may be far larger, which means the infection rate may be higher, but the death rate is probably lower than we think!
Right now the virus already looks more contagious than the seasonal flu. As I write, officials in Washington State are investigating whether it has been in their area for more than six weeks without being detected (or was mistaken for the flu). China originally estimated the mortality rate to be almost seven percent, which is many times more lethal than the flu. But, that estimate focused on the very sick, elderly folks who showed up at hospitals in Wuhan: later estimates have dropped (and will probably continue to do so) to below one percent (but still higher than the seasonal flu).
Should I buy/wear a mask? If you have chronic halitosis, or want to avoid putting on makeup, yes. Also, if you are already confirmed with a case of CoVid19, the little paper masks will keep you from literally coughing mucus on the healthy people around you. Otherwise, they are useless, as the virus can pass through them. The exception is for medical staff, who are trying to cut down on sick patients coughing on them, so leave the paper masks to the professionals!
Now with respect to the N95 disposable masks: these run around US$30 each online and are good for eight hours. They can be reused if uncontaminated. They do filter out the coronavirus (and many other bad things). If you fall into the high risk groups and are really afraid, buy some and wear in public
What should I do to prepare if/when Covid19 becomes a pandemic? First, a technical definition: an epidemic is an increase in disease incidence beyond what is normally expected. A pandemic simply means a disease which has become epidemic in multiple countries/continents (hence global). It doesn’t mean the disease is especially deadly or even serious. When such a disease becomes part of the environment, in that it comes and goes all the time, it moves from epidemic/pandemic to endemic: you already know of one: the seasonal flu. So what do you do?
On the personal side, wash your hands frequently, cough into your elbow, and be alert for a fever. Stay away (literally, stand back) from anyone coughing/sneezing/etc. and minimize your exposure to crowds or public places. Do not follow information on social media, unless it links (like I do here) to sites like your State health agency, the CDC, or the WHO. A very good data site is available from Johns Hopkins. Others may simply be trying to get you upset!
On the societal side, sickness and quarantines can lead to a temporary breakdown in the global supply chain and/or services. Have a stockpile of one month’s supply of critical medicines (something you should probably always have as an expat!). Buy a week’s worth of non-perishable food items, a case or garrofon of bottled water, maybe an extra ration of eggs, rice or other things to fill out some meals. Don’t forget pet food! Any disruption is unlikely to last more than a few days to maybe two weeks, so there is no reason to go full “prepper.” You are just trying to make life a little less uncomfortable IF a supply problem arises.
As an expat, should I head back NOB? You should be wherever your most appropriate health care is. If you’re healthy and have confidence in your local doctor, stay. If you’re in one of the “at-risk” groups, you have to weigh the additional risk of public exposure in driving cross-country for days or flying (note: flying may not be as dangerous for infection as you may have been led to believe). Exposure is the key to infection, and when you are traveling, you are exposed (one way or another) to many more people.
What do I do if I get sick? Same as usual: check your symptoms, check with your doctor. The keys to CoVid19 are high fever, cough, and shortness of breath. If you have different symptoms, you probably have a different illness! If you get especially acute symptoms, or they persist, seek medical assistance immediately (sound familiar?).
Is my government prepared? In the US, Canada, and Mexico, yes. Contrary to some news reports, the US CDC budget was not cut (proposed cuts were not enacted). The sizable US federal bureaucracy which exists to identify and fight disease is just as robust and capable today as in the past. Some have made much of the elimination of the Ebola coordinator position on the US National Security Council staff: it was created to deal with Ebola and never intended to be permanent. This particular position was cut when John Bolton decided to reduce the NSC staff. This staff waxes and wanes in size under different administrations, and there is no right answer over how big it should be. People can have an honest disagreement about whether such a permanent position is needed, but it is hardly evidence of a lack of national preparedness.
Is there anything else to worry about? Coronaviruses don’t tend to mutate as much as flu viruses do. CoVid19 already seems to be good at spreading: viruses don’t necessarily become more lethal (except in the movies), because that means less spreading (if everybody dies, there is no one left to infect). As always, one major worry is people doing stupid things in overreacting: killing pets, attacking strangers, or not drinking Corona cerveza!
What is the most likely outcome? For healthy you, you might catch two (or more) bouts of flu-like illness this season. A disease blip which dominates the media and causes some minor disruptions (maybe the iPhone 12 comes out next January vice September: TEOTWAWKI!) and major hysteria for a time. Maybe your local supermarket will run out of some items, either due to hoarding or supply disruptions. Probably becomes endemic and joins the list of causes of the seasonal illnesses like the flu.
Oh, and don’t look at your 401(k) or stock portfolio. That may really make you sick.
Sanity from South of the border.
Very helpful write-up.