What changes and what doesn’t?

I’m starting to see interesting articles talking about how life might change after the coronavirus pandemic wanes. It may seem weird–when countries are still experiencing exponential case growth–to be discussing what happens next. But the virus will wane, and whether it’s this Fall or next year, life will return to normal. But what kind of normal?

We have historical examples: the Black Death and the Spanish Flu, two of the worst contagions in history. The Black Death ravaged the world in the 14th century, killing upwards of 200 million people in four years and recurring for centuries. The Spanish Flu hit in three waves between 1918-1920, killed between fifty and one hundred million, while infecting one-quarter of the world’s population. Nothing about CoVid19 approaches either of these cases, but there are interesting lessons from each.

Historians credit the Black Death with hastening the end of feudalism in Europe, undermining the authority of the Roman Catholic Church, and fostering the Renaissance. Dead serfs raise no crops, and surviving commoners found more lands, cheaper food, and more opportunities. The death of perhaps half the population in a region wrought great change.

The Spanish flu coincided with the First World War, and came on the heels of several other contagions (e.g., cholera, yellow fever, typhoid). Thus the world’s population was both more accustomed to disease outbreaks, and had a coincidental catastrophe (WWI) which put the tragedy in perspective. Historians point out that there were no great changes from the Spanish Flu, other than the end of the practice of using common cups (which was heretofore common in schools, churches, pubs, etc.), and the nation-state’s assumption of some responsibility for health.

Let’s start with what won’t change. Some predict a flowering of good-neighborliness and caring, based on our shared national tragedy. It saddens me to disagree. Trauma, especially national trauma, rarely causes such change. For every individual who suffers a heart attack and changes his diet for the better, there are far more who resume a bacon-and-beer diet (not that there’s anything wrong with that!). Cities that are massively disrupted–like New Orleans in Katrina–may look a little different, but quickly revert to character. How long did the bipartisan national spirit last after 9/11? After trauma, people seek normalcy, which they define as what it was like before. So I doubt the Age of Aquarius is around the corner.

Some things I expect:

• The forced march to telework should prove to skeptical bosses that workers can indeed work outside their direct view, sparking increased adoption (Voluntary, part-time, but an increasingly available option).
• Ditto for telemedicine. It works even better for routine stuff and it keeps you and everyone else from exposure.
• Government will get larger, at least temporarily. The Economist suggests this is normal in the modern era and likely this time. I agree in the near-term, but I question whether it will hold in the long term, or for all nations.
• In addition to testing and early action to quarantine, one of the keys of South Korea’s (and Singapore’s) apparently successful response to CoVid19 was extensive use of electronic tracking and surveillance. While I don’t see this becoming widespread under normal circumstances, I think it will be a standard epidemic response among capable governments in the future.
• Businesses will reassess “just-in-time” delivery of supplies, perhaps increasing the number/diversity of suppliers and/or capability to stockpile essential items. Nations likewise will reevaluate the strategic implications of allowing so much production to be centered in a single nation (China) and perhaps re-shore (i.e., bring home) production of things like pharmaceuticals. Cheaper is cheaper, not always better.
• The contagion will “thin the herd” economically. Small businesses working on weak margins or large ones with underlying cash-flow or business process conditions will go bankrupt (especially true for restaurants). So there will still be plenty of planes and cruise ships, but fewer companies. I don’t foresee the end of the cruise industry, though. Those cheap vacations will look pretty good when they are safe again, and the surviving cruise lines will offer extreme deals to restart the business.
• Streaming services are winners; cinemas were already in trouble, this might kill them. There will always be some movie theaters for special viewings, opening nights, etc. But their monopoly on content was eroding and is now gone, and with that, ten-dollar popcorn.
• I would bet that US federal government will enact mandatory paid sick leave, as the challenge of workers who have to go to work sick was highlighted in the early stages of the pandemic.
• Most countries will review medical stockpiles, policies, and preparations for testing. Taiwan was hard hit by SARS and did the same, and it fared much better (apparently) this time. Why the US stockpile wasn’t refilled after the 2009 H1N1 outbreak (through two administrations and multiple Congresses) will be an interesting review.
• Doctors, nurses, and other medical professionals will be heroes to a new generation of Americans, deservedly so. Look to increased interest in and pay for the field. Also, the medical profession will play a decisive role in any future discussions about nationalizing health. I’ll let you guess how that will play out.
• Celebrities, social influencers, and athletes will be relative losers. They will always play a role in public opinion and entertainment, but we all learned to live without them, and their attempts to gain attention or empathize with the rest of the world have fallen flat.
• Going out on a limb here, but maybe, just maybe, we’ll see a reckoning for those people and media who sensationalize everything. People who take a political view of every situation, those who ascribe to conspiracy theories, those who share bogus health guidance, media who exaggerate for effect: all need to be rightly shunned. Partisan sites have not done as well during the crisis. I hope the fact-checkers have a field day when this is all over. Re-reading what I just wrote, I would put this more in the “wished for” than likely category.

The biggest single change? A loss in fervor for the dominant faith. The Black death was a blow to medieval Catholicism. The Spanish Flu undermined the social-Darwinist and eugenics movements, while also undercutting the health professionals who had no answer (bacteria were well understood, while viruses were only beginning to be understood). But what is our dominant faith today?

If you’re talking about the United States, I would describe the faith as combination of rugged individualism and laissez-faire capitalism. How does that faith get shaken? This gets very tricky. The default condition would be to return (as per my earlier comment) to the status quo ante virus. But fear spread alongside the coronavirus, and it will leave a residue. That fear, in breathless headlines and apocalyptic videos, was existential. Look at what we spent our time arguing or caring about and ask yourself: was it worth it? Transgender bathrooms? NYSE 30,0000? Ukraine quid pro quo? Supreme Court positions? The Oscars?

I could certainly see a political realignment coming out of this pandemic. Changed parties? More parties? Demographic moves within parties? I can’t tell what form it will take. If you think you know how it plays out, I bet you thought you knew who would win in 2016.

Does society engage in more frivolous and nihilistic behavior like the roaring 20’s? Do we gain a new political movement aimed at the center and eschewing the extremes?

It is too early to tell about this one, and I welcome your thoughts. Remember, whatever we say here, it’s on record! I’ll revisit this post in one year to see how things turned out.