I haven’t been writing much about the coronavirus or Covid19 lately, as there is not much new to say.
- What about the upsurge in cases in the US? Predictable, and in fact predicted by all the relevant authorities. Remember that the lockdown was designed to flatten the curve, meaning everybody is eventually exposed, just not at the same time. It worked, but that didn’t mean there would not be a continuing series of local outbreaks as the virus continued its unrelenting spread.
- No breakthrough on a treatment or vaccine? Plasma is the latest hope, but it is likely not a miracle treatment. And a vaccine will come in due time, if at all. Yes, a nation like Russia can rush to announce a vaccine, but that doesn’t make it so. The world record time for vaccine development (for mumps) was four years; we’ll break that if (big if) we find one for the coronavirus.
- Immunity remains unproven but real. A recent report from Hong Kong apparently confirmed the first case of re-infection. So while we don’t understand the virus very well, the millions of infected and recovered and the highly infectious nature of the virus point to only one conclusion: there is sustained immunity.
- Media continue to play the “which nation is doing better or worse” game. Partisan media only grab select stories and feed them like red meat to the gullible. The EU is currently trending worse, the US better, and their lines will probably soon cross. South Korea has another outbreak, as does New Zealand. Germany restarted schools and is stopping them as each new outbreak occurs. France is on the edge, again. It’s a pandemic people, without significant treatment or a vaccine. It will continue to spread, until everyone has had it or is vaccinated. Those are the only two outcomes.
So really not much new here, despite all the breathless news coverage. After my recent visit to the States, I will go out on a limb and make one prediction. When the history of this event is written, historians will point out how uniquely suited this virus was to attack the United States. Now put down your tinfoil hats; I am making no conspiracy argument here, just an observation. Based on . . .
- This virus leaves most healthy people unscathed, but ravages vulnerable populations. According to the best data, eighty percent of Americans who contract Covid19 will suffer no symptoms (forty percent) or flu-like (another forty percent) symptoms. The elderly and overweight and otherwise sickly are endangered; the healthy and young not so much. This strikes directly at America’s libertarian streak, meaning we were never going to keep people locked down or under quarantine or even wearing masks for very long. With predictable results.
- America is a world leader in the comorbidities which lead to death from the coronavirus. Not to mention, our fragmented healthcare system meant those with the worst or no care–and no paid sick leave–were most likely to have to work, either to put food on the table, avoid being fired, or because they were essential to the rest.
- As a nation, we are more likely to place our elderly or infirm in institutional settings (whether old-age homes, nursing homes, or continuing-care facilities). Yet the staff work at multiple locations for profit-seeking firms unwilling to spend on personal protective gear, meaning we built giant petri dishes of infection for the most vulnerable.
- Our politics were already so poisoned that simple health matters became political red lines. Some people take pride in not wearing a mask, others try to excuse participation in large protests. Expert medical opinion is solicited or rejected based on how it comports with previous political positions. Early on, the virus hit blue states on both coasts, and you didn’t need to search hard to find people blaming it on their politics. When the virus moved to the red state heartland, it was just as easy to find the reverse. AND . . .
- Our constitutional republic meant persuading states to behave in a coordinated fashion, which wasn’t going to happen as long as political leaders treated this as another red/blue state issue. Democratic nominee Joe Biden just said if he is President and the virus breaks out again, he will “shut the country down.” Amazingly, the press didn’t ask how he would do that or with what authority. Were that it was so easy. BUT . . .
- President Trump bears special responsibility for the debacle that is national messaging during this crisis. One role for the President in such events is to be reassuring, calm, consistent, and authoritative. He was 0 for 4 in that regard.
Despite good messaging, a quick response, and bipartisan support, the US experienced the greatest number of deaths (worldwide) during the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic. We didn’t do very well during the 1918 Spanish flu, either. Maybe some things never change. We appear to be somewhat more vulnerable-as a society and polity–than other nations. And the coronavirus hit the sweet spot.