Much of the recent focus on the possibility of another American Civil War stems from the coverage of the anniversary of the January 6th attack on the US Capitol. I made the case in the last post that this focus on a potential spark misses the point: we aren’t ready for a spark. But what might push the red and blue extremes to make the psychic break that violence is necessary, and therefor create the conditions for a future spark and conflagration?
The key question is how much respect there is–on either side–for the system of government.
During the first civil war, Lincoln famously made the conflict all about the Union, that is, the system which bound the states together.
If I could save the Union without freeing any slave I would do it, and if I could save it by freeing all the slaves I would do it; and if I could save it by freeing some and leaving others alone I would also do that.
Abraham Lincoln in a letter to Horace Greeley
While Lincoln later ennobled the effort to save the Union by including emancipation, his initial impulse was telling: the American system was worth saving at any cost.
The Confederacy also paid mock tribute from their side, borrowing much language from the US Constitution and making the argument that the issue was state’s rights, not slavery (a red herring, but the attempt shows how important was the need to justify the conflict in terms of the existing governmental system.).
Today there is ample evidence for conern that both sides show fundamental distrust for the American system.
How are our norms holding up? It is easy to point out Team Trump’s “deep state” conspiracy, and Trump himself was to political decorum what Genghis Khan was to the law of war. Now President Biden has called the other side traitors favoring a return to Jim Crow. Senator McConnell famously fiddled with US Supreme Court vacancies, making up new traditions as he went. Majority Leader Schumer is calling to ease the filibuster (he might want to whisper in the ear of the late Harry Reid as he lies in state in the US Capitol, and ask how that might work out the next time Republicans are in control of the Senate). For forty years Republican Presidents found their Supreme Court Justices never quite worked out the way they intended; now Democrats insist the court must be term-limited, expanded, or otherwise neutered to the left’s taste. Don’t even mention the electoral college: I don’t blame the average American for not knowing why we have one, or what purpose it serves. And the constant refrain of “American Democracy” has had the predictable effect of leading people to wonder why the popular vote is irrelevant. All of which is to say, yes, our norms are up for debate by both sides, with neither side seeming to understand that if the rules of the games are gone, we are about to engage in political Calvin Ball.
Well, at least we have legitimate elections, right?
Again, Trump’s nascent 2024 campaign seems to be predicated on discredited theories about voter fraud in the 2020 result. And various GOP state parties are trying to amend state election rules to permit political officials to overrule vote counts. But then don’t forget all those who claim the Supreme Court “stole” the 2000 election (they didn’t, according to the NY Times AND the Washington Post), or that the Russians engineered Trump’s 2016 victory because he was their Manchurian Candidate (he wasn’t, and the Steele dossier was garbage). Stacey Abrams claims she lost the 2018 Georgia Governor’s race due to voter suppression in an election where Georgia registered the greatest increase in average voter participation of any state in thirty years. And now Republicans are banking on rolling back more liberal voting rules introduced for the pandemic, and Democrats are calling it Jim Crow 2.0. Except for one small point. There is no evidence greater turnout favors Democrats or hurts Republicans. There is also very little evidence easy registration, drop boxes, early voting rules, absentee ballots or voter identification laws affect voter turnout. Both sides are posturing about this, and calling into question every election at every level of government. If elections are only legitimate when your sides wins, you have a problem.
What about the ability of the American system to force compromise? That too hangs in the balance. Both sides agree the Electoral Act of 1887 needs to be updated to rule out the type of shenanigans Trump’s lawyers peddled about the electoral count. Yet the Democrats haven’t moved on it. Republicans won’t support any form of lifting the debt limit. The Congress passed the infrastructure bill with bipartisan support, but the Democrats insist on stuffing the Build Back Better bill with items even all the Democrats can’t agree on. Both sides and both Houses are set to pass a budget resolution, but mostly because it will reinstate earmarks (designated pork for one’s constituents). I guess that is some hope: Congress can still agree on bacon.
If you’ve read this far, you may be wondering how I come to the conclusion that we’re not ready for a spark. Our norms are under attack, elections results are questioned, our legislature gridlocked. That’s not a pretty picture, but both sides are still fighting within the system. I don’t think the system is healthy right now; I do think that if either side continues to over-react by challenging the system itself, we will set the stage for eventual violence.
What that may look like I’ll consider in part III.
That was the longest chapeau I’ve ever read in an analytic assessment. I got to the last paragraph for the great reveal–that never came. In treating marketing strategy: Read this NIE, but you’ll have to wait for the Memorandum to Holders to get the assessment. 😀
Interesting marketing strategy . . .