Epilogue (IV/IV)

In part I, I explained why I don’t feel the outrage so many others do. I made it clear that there are many things the Trump administration is doing that I disagree with either in intent or manner, but I don’t share the feeling that the end is near, as so many liberals, progressives, and the media preach. In part II, I covered what the big challenges are facing America today, and in part III, I suggested what those challenges require. It was a daunting list, yet I ended up sounding somewhat optimistic. In this conclusion, I’ll try to explain “why?”

The first cause for optimism is that it’s always better to correctly understand the world you’re in (and the problems thereof). That may seem obvious, but it bears repeating. Back during the Cold War, there were people who insisted the Soviet Union was just misunderstood, they weren’t as evil or ambitious as they seemed. Sometimes, these people were in power in various Western governments. It wasn’t a disaster, but it never went well. Anyway, people who think all will be well when we get to post-Trump are in for a rude awakening. They have missed the point.

That said, many people on both the right and the left are correctly describing how the world has changed. And that means they will be proposing solutions. Take for instance the economy. From the right, Oren Cass and the folks at American Compass have proposals to support families, unions, middle-class workers, and small businesses! On the left, Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson have a fascinating analysis in their new book, Abundance, which highlights how government regulations strangle both productivity and progress. Our leaders should welcome such ideas. I would love to hear that President Trump has invited Klein and Thompson to lead a federal study on which federal regulations to amend/eliminate.

On international relations, foreign leaders are admitting they have neglected military spending for decades, and have to adjust. I had a fascinating exchange on social media with someone defending Belgium as a loyal American ally who simply chose to invest in a better life for its citizens. I asked why that same idea didn’t apply to Americans, and of course got no response. Germany recently signaled a major investment in its military; I’ll withhold judgment until I see the spending turn into real capabilities.The notion of a “global policeman” is an historical oddity, and we need to return to reality. Freedom isn’t free, for anybody.

On international trade, no one can argue Trump hasn’t upended the system. That part is done. It’s very unclear if his administration has the acumen to create a new one. I guarantee if they don’t, they won’t get a second chance in 2028. There will be economic dislocations along the way, whoever eventually develops the new trading system. But the jury is still out, as we don’t even have a full quarter of economic data under Trump’s second term yet. What we can’t do is continue along the path of free-trade-no-matter-what that we were on.

Technology remains an unknown. America has the technological genius to win the AI war, but do we have the political genius to enable, enforce, and exploit it? I don’t see that in either party right now. And the people developing the systems can’t do it alone; remember, FaceBook was going to be a global commons of love and happiness–how did that turn out?

Education reform is a mixed bag, in my opinion. Things like growth in home-schooling and charter schools are only good in that having options is always better; they are not sure things, by any stretch of the imagination. But I hear of school systems resuming testing and standards, banning cell phones, and re-creating challenging placement programs. We’ll need a return of non-college track options, too. At the same time, some schools remain tied to things like the 1619 Project and DEI initiatives, which are educational dead ends. At least the general direction in education is toward more competition, which will expose the fads and frauds.

Government spending is where the outlook is most grim. DOGE has been mainly a stunt, notwithstanding saving $100+ billion. Trimming the federal workforce helps, but the way it’s being done is neither healthy nor precise. Everybody continues to swear all entitlements are off the table, which makes reducing the deficit almost impossible. Meanwhile, the MAGA party swears by Republican tax cuts for all and the Democrats profess “wealth taxes” and “ending corporate welfare,” bogus phrases which have no meaning. The silver lining here is that the threatening storm clouds will not blow away, so we have to face up to cuts eventually. I’ll go so far as to say that the party/leader who commits to addressing the deficit/debt issue with real solutions will win the next Presidential election.

One other reason for optimism is how fast the Trump administration is working when it knows what it wants to do. Look at immigration, which I don’t consider one of the great remaining challenges. Trump was always clear about how he felt on immigration; no one can debate that. We were assured by immigration experts that nothing could be done to stop the masses of people heading up through Central America, and that no one could identify all the undocumented/illegal aliens already in the country, that removing them would destroy the home-building and agricultural sectors, and that most of the people here were vetted and therefore not a threat. We have since learned that none of those “truths” were correct.

Border crossings are down somewhere around ninety percent (the exact numbers are in dispute, not the size of the change). The pipeline of migrants in Central America has reversed and is heading back home. The federal government is (for the first time) using all data at its disposal (including tax data) to identify those illegally in the country. Imagine that. Trump’s audacious (or illegal, the Supreme Court has not ruled) deportations have sent a clear signal that illegal immigration is as dangerous once you reach the United States as it was getting there. And people are realizing that no one could vet these migrants, as their home countries either didn’t share data with the US, or didn’t care.

But like many of the bigger challenges, all of this is being done quickly but impermanently. A future progressive Presidency could undo much of it just as quickly. The administration will need to work with Congress in a bipartisan fashion to enact laws that bring stability to the results already achieved. We need better border security, streamlined immigration proceedings, a new merit-based immigration policy, solutions for “the Dreamers,” elimination of birthright citizenship, reform of temporary refugee rules, and leadership to change international asylum law. That’s quite a menu! I have serious doubts about Trump’s ability to do this, even in immigration, which should be his strong suit. And the same goes for all the challenges above.

When you look at my list of challenges, you can see progress or promise in nearly every item. So the challenges are daunting, but I remain optimistic. One final note, about that Trump guy. I have friends who live-and-die on a steady diet of Trump outrage, and it only outrages them more when anyone else doesn’t join them. I don’t, because he’s just not that important. He is at best a transitional figure, and he seems to instinctively understand some of the issues, even if his solutions are often not well-conceived. If you focus on Trump, you have my sympathy. There are thousands of influencers, media types, and “friends” feeding the obsession. He doesn’t merit all the attention, and you’re missing out on profound things happening in the larger world. One day we will be beyond Trump, that much is certain. In the meantime, we all have choices to make: identify problems and solutions, or resist Trump. I choose the former. If you choose the latter, we’ll meet up again in the post-Trump world.