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Something to Smile about

We’re told this year’s American election is “the most important in our lifetime” and the electorate is divided like never before. A literal plague stalks the land, ravaging the old, the ill, and the weak. Life’s little pleasures (whether a block party, a child’s birthday, a student’s graduation, or a football game) are cancelled. Unprecedented (ooooh, that word) fires burn out of control in the west, hurricanes hammer the Gulf, and derechos bear down upon the heartland. You aren’t safe at home, but going out means more risk, and no one wants you to visit, anyway. Jobs are uncertain, schools are uncertain, and no one know when certainty will be a thing again. *Sigh*

When you see someone on the corner with a sandwich board proclaiming “The End Is Near” it’s enough to make you say “welcome the the party, pal!”

There are glimmers of hope and moments of grace all around us, if we want to see them.

Organized religion found itself off the list of essential activities, and this most likely accelerated the trend toward fewer faithful in the future. Yet the pandemic presented numerous opportunities for the faithful to witness their vocations and tend to the sick or feed the hungry, even if they could not attend to worship. Churches may be more empty, but for those returning, there is a palpable relief at what was lost and now is found.

America’s endless racial discussion has returned with a vengeance, but at least the current round has focused attention on our police forces: the ridiculous tasks we give them, the cynicism of the courts, the corrosive effects of dealing with mindless violence every day, the inapplicability of military-style solutions. Perhaps when the race-baiting recedes, local leaders will spark the reforms desperately needed.

Everybody I knew in my working life agreed that we all spent too much time and effort at work and not enough at home. My oh my, how that chicken has come home to roost! It might make even a committed atheist wonder about the Lord’s “mysterious ways” when suddenly everybody is forced to “work” from home. And when all the distractions (sports, parties, shopping, etc.) are removed, what we have left are ourselves and our families. What matters most becomes pretty clear, no?

Those same parents are learning what a difficult job teachers have; perhaps they’ll also realize how much parental responsibilities have been shuffled off to schools. Teaching the difference between numerators and denominators is hard enough; make schools responsible for ethics and morals and you’ll get the least common denominator.

Random acts of kindness abound: kids raising money to feed the homeless, landlords telling renters not to worry, parents organizing drive-by birthday parties. There is a great story to be told about how everyday people took action to help each other in the face of a pandemic which stalled our globally-connected economy while politics paralyzed our governments.

Polls suggest political divisiveness will lead to a surge in voting: talk about a silver lining to a storm cloud! I would prefer a surge in voter education about the issues leading to a surge in voting, but let’s keep to the positive side of the equation.

Science and the medical arts have shined. Oh, not for those who forget why it’s called a medical “practice,” or for those who confuse science with scientism (the latter a term for those who believe–note that word–science can explain all things). In the end, the worst predictions will prove exaggerated, and the researchers, doctors and nurses on the front line will be exonerated and honored.

There seems to be a resurgence in interest in healthy lifestyles. Exercise equipment flies off the shelves and people seek ways to shed those few extra pounds that came with enforced inactivity. Perhaps the spectre of obesity as comorbidity can–like the ghost of Christmas future–spur us to change.

Speaking of change, pets are getting unforseen amounts of attention. More people are seeking them and spending time with time; what else is there to do? It is not all good news: my daughter’s dog had a bout of nervous hair-loss resulting from not being alone all day! And animal behaviorists (yes, there are such things) say pets will undergo more stress when schedules return to normal.

But who’s to say what’s normal? Why should we accept the sixty-hour work weeks, the hours-long daily commutes, the absences from home or games or family? As a God-fearing man, I’m always looking for signs of what God’s will for me is. All should consider the challenge: is this all there is? Like a bicycle racer churning up a steep hill, we pedal ever harder and faster, afraid of stalling and sliding back down. This pandemic, this election, these climate events, like all the other “important” things going on right now, are an invitation to just stop . . . and realize we aren’t on a steep hill. We’re on level ground, and it is only our endless list of wants and needs which makes it appear to be an ascent.

Politics will not make you happy. Change will not make you happy. Success will not make you happy. I had to learn long ago that I am not responsible for anyone else’s happiness: just my own. You can be happy. It’s a choice. Need proof? Happiness can be found among the poor, the deprived, even the suddenly afflicted by disease or catastrophe. You can tell those who have learned this lesson: they are the ones smiling.

Messy Elections

A group called the Transition Integrity Project just held a series of “serious games” simulating a variety of catastrophic outcomes for the impending US presidential election. You might have seen the headlines “What if Trump refuses to leave the White House?” or “The Dangers of the Red Mirage.” They also considered the delays inherent in large mail-in voting or what-if Joe Biden were to pass way shortly before or after the election. If you don’t have enough keeping you awake at night, I highly recommend you read the link!

Seriously, there are several factors combining a la “The Perfect Storm” to make this a particularly contentious election in terms of public confidence. But how unusual is that? Consider the history:

The standing record-holder for most contentious election is the 1824 John Quincy Adams’ victory. How bad was it? Well, for starters, there was only one political party at the time (The Democratic-Republicans), so the nominee was guaranteed the Presidency. Several states didn’t hold votes; they so distrusted democracy that the state government simply named electors (which was and still is constitutional!). However, the party leadership was fragmented, and ended up with four different nominees splitting the electoral college so that no one got a majority. This threw the Presidential election to the House of Representatives, where each state delegation casts a single vote. Adams, who had come in second in the electoral college, cut a deal with Henry Clay, who had come in fourth, to secure the state delegation votes of Ohio and Kentucky, thus defeating Andrew Jackson (who had the most electoral votes) thirteen states to seven. The deal became known as “the corrupt bargain” (Clay was named Adams’ Secretary of State) and set the stage for Jackson establishing the new Democratic Party and whipping Adams in 1828.

A pro-Jackson political cartoon from the 1824 election that attacks Republicans, the press, blacks, Indians, the US Treasury, you name it.

The runner-up for messiest election has to be 1876. Samuel Tilden, a Democrat from New York, easily beat the Republican Rutherford B. Hayes from Ohio, winning an actual majority (not just plurality) of the popular vote. Tilden also held an electoral college victory of 184-165, but twenty uncounted electors from four states were in dispute. Congress created an Electoral Commission to resolve the controversial twenty votes. This body developed a compromise whereby all twenty votes and the Presidency went to Hayes (!) in exchange for (1) his commitment to serve only one term, (2) the withdrawal of federal troops from the South, and (3) the end of Reconstruction. This might be the most consequential messy-election, but for:

Third place, one with which you might be more familiar: 1860. Jackson’s dominant Democratic Party broke in half over the issue of slavery, and the new Republican Party ran a little known Illinois legislator: Abraham Lincoln. Southern states left Lincoln off the ballot, but he still got an electoral college majority. The possibility of a President who would prohibit the extension of slavery (the Republicans were not then against the continuation of slavery in the South) was enough for seven states to secede before Lincoln took office: the ultimate denial of legitimacy is open warfare.

Fourth place in my rankings goes to the little known vote tabulations after the 1960 Kennedy-Nixon contest. Everyone knows who won, and that Kennedy did so with a sizeable electoral college advantage: 303 to 219. You may have heard Kennedy’s electoral advantage belied the popular vote, which historians originally thought Kennedy won by just .17%! But subsequent review of contested Alabama votes shows that Nixon probably won the popular vote by 50,000 even though he still lost the election. Nixon’s resentment at pro-Kennedy political shenanigans and favorable press treatment led to his early retirement from politics (He famously said, “You won’t have Dick Nixon to kick around any more!”). This was of course short-lived, but the lessons he learned in 1960 (i.e., do whatever it takes to win, and take nothing for granted) would tarnish his later landslide victories.

Finally there is the disputed 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore. Gore won the popular vote 48% to 47% for Bush, but Bush won the electoral college 271-266. Most everyone here remembers the drama of the “hanging chads” and lawsuits contesting the results of one key state: Florida. Bush originally won Florida by only 537 votes out of six million cast. The popular story is the Democrats pushed for a Florida recount, which would have given Gore the state’s electoral votes and the Presidency. This effort was halted by the US Supreme Court, in effect giving the victory to Bush. There is one small problem with this story. Long after the election, the Florida Ballots Project, a consortium of the New York Times, Washington Post, Wall Street Journal and the National Opinion Research Center from the University of Chicago did a deep dive into Florida’s ballots. Over ten months, they had 153 specialists examine 175,000 disputed ballots at a cost of one million dollars. All the results, with one exception, show Bush won Florida. The exception? If one counts the overvotes (ballots where more than one candidate is indicated) and assumes all were actually Gore votes, then Gore wins. Of course, candidate Gore never requested a recount of overvotes–nor does anyone–as assuming which of two (or more!) candidates marked was the final choice is impossible. Most people only know the popular story, since the results of the Florida Ballots Project weren’t released until two months after the 9/11 attacks, and were thus immediately forgotten.

Hope you enjoyed (?) this rundown. Here’s hoping this year’s outcome doesn’t merit inclusion in this list! It is (a little) reassuring to see what the country has been through before. I would note that in most cases short of violence, the biggest effect of a messy election has been to cause change in the parties or processes of the election, showing a system capable of changing to correct past errors.

Mexico is open for . . .

well, anything you like. Business? yes. Tourism? Yes. Just because you can’t stand to be locked down in your house another day? Yes.

Wait, you say, isn’t the US-Mexican border closed to non-essential travel? Yes. The United States, Canada, and Mexico initiated this lockdown back in March, and extended it as recently as late August (text at the link). You can close the US-Mexican border for a few days, you can even close a specific border crossing for weeks. But, one can’t simply shut down the the US- Mexican border.

Why? It’s the most crossed border in the world. Europeans make much of the freedom of travel within the EU under the Schengen agreement, and yes, it’s great. But a million people a day cross the US-Mexico international border, not to mention world record amounts of commercial products. And it has stayed open. The announced restrictions exempted workers crossing the border and business/goods. And US citizens have always been allowed “to return home.” There have been verified problems for Canadians trying to drive home from Mexico, but otherwise the border still hums.

And, the restrictions mentioned above only applied to the land border. US tourists remain welcome in Mexico’s many resorts. So if you wish to fly or cruise (are any ships cruising?) to Mexico, it’s still there waiting. And it is one of the few places welcoming Americans these days!

Green is go for American travel: “pickens is mighty slim”

But should you travel now? That is a complicated question which involves your personal willingness to accept risk. How healthy are you? How vulnerable are you to the coronavirus? What comorbidities do you have? Can you effectively quarantine before/after travel and how vulnerable are your family/friends? Do you know what to do if you get sick while travelling? Only you can answer these questions. Personal and tourist travel is continuing today–even picking back up–along with travel-shaming (“how dare you endanger . . . “).

On the plus side, travel deals are pretty good. Mexico is friendly, welcoming, and familiar for the American tourist. Your dollars will greatly help workers in the tourism sector, who generally work for tips and have little savings and little help from the federal government. They will also assist Mexico’s ailing tourism industry, which is an essential part of the nation’s economy.

On the negative side, there is that whole Covid19 thingy. Resorts are going to great lengths to ensure sanitary conditions. Some attractions are closed, or less enjoyable. Your favorite buffet is probably not going to be there. You may get a tan line around a face mask. Is the pandemic better or worse in Mexico? Yes. Here is the most current data on new cases. Mexico has plateaued, but its case count is suspect due to limited testing. My best guess is it is about the same as the US.

I don’t make this recommendation lightly. I canceled a college reunion I was going to host in August here at Lake Chapala because at that time, it was unclear where the pandemic was headed and how the government in Mexico City would respond. That is no longer the case. I have travelled back and forth to the US recently and it was simple and safe; we will do so again soon. Given everything else going on, just realize getting away to Mexico remains an option, if you so choose. And no, I don’t get a cut from anybody!

“Watch your mouth, . . . “

I’ll wash it out with soap!”

I don’t recall ever hearing this threat from my parents (correct me if I’m wrong, Dad). But it was commonplace back when, what you’d call a meme today. And I think it’s a good self-admonition, due to the growth and increasing acceptance of polemic language. Polemic language degrades communication, demeans both the speaker and recipient, and generally poisons the atmosphere. You may infer that I don’t like it.

What, you say, is polemic language? Let’s consider a hypothetical example rather than a cold definition. Imagine you’re sitting in a bar and strike up a conversation with the person on the next stool. After a few (too many) drinks, you’re debating religion, and your drinking buddy says “God? Oh, I don’t believe in God.”

As a Christian, this is an opportunity to spread the Good News; there are so many ways the conversation could go! You might ask whether your friend EVER believed, or what do they believe now, or even were they familiar with the thinking of Friedrich Nietzsche (an atheist who hasn’t read Nietzsche is like a Christian who hasn’t read the Bible). But imagine the same situation, only this time your drinking buddy says “religion is just the opiate of the masses.” This phrase, which doubtless rings some bells, is a bit of Marxist drivel, and is polemic language. It marks the speaker as someone not interested in discourse, only domination. You can argue religion with an atheist influenced by Nietzsche, but not a Marxist.

What does polemic language do? It replaces thought with slogans, and not only slogans, but slogans designed to enforce an orthodoxy of belief. George Orwell’s 1984 captured the nature of polemic language in slogans like “War is Peace, freedom is slavery, and ignorance is strength.”

In today’s America, polemic language exists all along the political spectrum. On the right it is superficial and less well-developed, mostly revolving around invoking the terms “deep-state” and “swamp.” Even the latter term is borrowed, as it long predates the Trump administration, and was earlier invoked by Ronald Reagan to identify the cozy relationship between publicly antagonistic Washington politicians, who (along with their families and friends) seemed to thrive despite animosity or even the economic conditions of the country writ large. Progressives originated the term decades earlier as “drain the swamp of capitalism.” Since I previously remonstrated on the deep-state, let’s look at the other side.

Polemic language on the left is far more well-developed, primarily due to decades of work in academia. Theories of race, power, and sex developed into academic studies which generated an alternate language. And as any linguist will tell you, language in turn constrains thought. All this goes back to post-World War II academic debates over post-modernism: the notion that there are no moral certainties — or even truth–and that what we believe to be modern morals or systems are just the remnants of past power struggles. These debates matured into current theories of patriarchy, intersectionality, heteronormativity, anti-racism and the like. Click on the links if you’re unfamiliar, but be warned: like Alice, you may find yourself “through the looking glass.”

So what’s the problem with using such language? Don’t you (I) respect academic theory? Of course, I am a big fan of the theory of gravity, for example, because it has proven itself a useful way to look at how objects behave everywhere and always (except at the quantum level!). But these other theories are not proven, and in some cases are unprovable. Their polemic language blurs the discussion, and that is never good. Let’s take a recent example.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) opined on the statue of Father Damien in the Capitol building, tweeting this is “what patriarchy and white supremacist culture looks [sic] like.” The statue is one of two representing the state of Hawaii (the other is King Kamehameha). Now it is true Father Damien was a Belgian, a man, and a white one to boot. By the theories of patriarchy, colonization, and white supremacy, he is guilty as AOC charged.

Father Damien seems unconcerned about the controversy

Unfortunately for the theories, the Hawaiian people chose to put his statue there, because this white, Belgian, Catholic priest chose to come to minister to the Hawaiian lepers in their colony on Molokai. He lived among them, cared for them, caught their (then) incurable disease and died among them. To Hawaiians, he was more Hawaiian than Haole.

AOC later amended her complaint to say she objected to the fact that Hawaii has no female memorialized in Capitol statuary. Assuming this is what she originally meant, she is correct. But that is not what she said. She used polemic language that was inaccurate and unfortunate. Had she tweeted, rather, “why doesn’t Hawaii have Queen Lili’uokalani as one of its statues in DC?” she might have initiated an interesting debate.

Now, if I were a Hawaiian, I might thank the Representative for her interest in Hawaiian affairs, and point out her own great state of New York has two dead white males (Robert Livingston and George Clinton) as its statuary representatives, and suggest she should perhaps turn her attention to getting her own house in order, so to speak.

But I am not Hawaiian. And this is not about statues.

If you see famous people using polemic language, beware. Don’t use it. If you think there are not enough statues of women, say so. Or that police stop too many African-americans. Or that television doesn’t show enough same-sex relationships. Those are arguments to be made. Slipping into polemic language doesn’t help. It marks the speaker as uninterested in the truth. Or maybe just as uninteresting.

And it gives credence to academic theories of little weight.

The American Virus

I haven’t been writing much about the coronavirus or Covid19 lately, as there is not much new to say.

What about the upsurge in cases in the US? Predictable, and in fact predicted by all the relevant authorities. Remember that the lockdown was designed to flatten the curve, meaning everybody is eventually exposed, just not at the same time. It worked, but that didn’t mean there would not be a continuing series of local outbreaks as the virus continued its unrelenting spread.
No breakthrough on a treatment or vaccine? Plasma is the latest hope, but it is likely not a miracle treatment. And a vaccine will come in due time, if at all. Yes, a nation like Russia can rush to announce a vaccine, but that doesn’t make it so. The world record time for vaccine development (for mumps) was four years; we’ll break that if (big if) we find one for the coronavirus.
Immunity remains unproven but real. A recent report from Hong Kong apparently confirmed the first case of re-infection. So while we don’t understand the virus very well, the millions of infected and recovered and the highly infectious nature of the virus point to only one conclusion: there is sustained immunity.
Media continue to play the “which nation is doing better or worse” game. Partisan media only grab select stories and feed them like red meat to the gullible. The EU is currently trending worse, the US better, and their lines will probably soon cross. South Korea has another outbreak, as does New Zealand. Germany restarted schools and is stopping them as each new outbreak occurs. France is on the edge, again. It’s a pandemic people, without significant treatment or a vaccine. It will continue to spread, until everyone has had it or is vaccinated. Those are the only two outcomes.

So really not much new here, despite all the breathless news coverage. After my recent visit to the States, I will go out on a limb and make one prediction. When the history of this event is written, historians will point out how uniquely suited this virus was to attack the United States. Now put down your tinfoil hats; I am making no conspiracy argument here, just an observation. Based on . . .

This virus leaves most healthy people unscathed, but ravages vulnerable populations. According to the best data, eighty percent of Americans who contract Covid19 will suffer no symptoms (forty percent) or flu-like (another forty percent) symptoms. The elderly and overweight and otherwise sickly are endangered; the healthy and young not so much. This strikes directly at America’s libertarian streak, meaning we were never going to keep people locked down or under quarantine or even wearing masks for very long. With predictable results.
America is a world leader in the comorbidities which lead to death from the coronavirus. Not to mention, our fragmented healthcare system meant those with the worst or no care–and no paid sick leave–were most likely to have to work, either to put food on the table, avoid being fired, or because they were essential to the rest.
As a nation, we are more likely to place our elderly or infirm in institutional settings (whether old-age homes, nursing homes, or continuing-care facilities). Yet the staff work at multiple locations for profit-seeking firms unwilling to spend on personal protective gear, meaning we built giant petri dishes of infection for the most vulnerable.
Our politics were already so poisoned that simple health matters became political red lines. Some people take pride in not wearing a mask, others try to excuse participation in large protests. Expert medical opinion is solicited or rejected based on how it comports with previous political positions. Early on, the virus hit blue states on both coasts, and you didn’t need to search hard to find people blaming it on their politics. When the virus moved to the red state heartland, it was just as easy to find the reverse. AND . . .
Our constitutional republic meant persuading states to behave in a coordinated fashion, which wasn’t going to happen as long as political leaders treated this as another red/blue state issue. Democratic nominee Joe Biden just said if he is President and the virus breaks out again, he will “shut the country down.” Amazingly, the press didn’t ask how he would do that or with what authority. Were that it was so easy. BUT . . .
President Trump bears special responsibility for the debacle that is national messaging during this crisis. One role for the President in such events is to be reassuring, calm, consistent, and authoritative. He was 0 for 4 in that regard.

Despite good messaging, a quick response, and bipartisan support, the US experienced the greatest number of deaths (worldwide) during the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic. We didn’t do very well during the 1918 Spanish flu, either. Maybe some things never change. We appear to be somewhat more vulnerable-as a society and polity–than other nations. And the coronavirus hit the sweet spot.

An Analytic Test

Back when I was a supervisor of analysts (last millennium, when dinosaurs roamed the National Mall), I had a weathered, paper copy of a Washington Post article in my desk drawer. The article was a summary of data developed about income percentiles in America (who makes how much, from the 1990s). There was little dispute about the data itself, and the article appeared with little fanfare and quickly passed into oblivion except for my faded copy. Sometimes when I wanted to test a potential (or aspiring) analyst, I would pass them the chart and ask them what were the strongest analytic judgments they could draw from it. I made it clear “just use this data, don’t try to add to it or fight it.”

The Brookings Institute has kindly updated that data (here), and the Washington Post covered it again. Here’s the key chart:

If you want to go back to the commentary or data, please do so, but go ahead and take this test (mentally): what judgments can you draw from this data? Again, don’t fight it; the answer is staring at you!

Middling analysts would focus on the point that the middle class is disappearing. Well, the median segment did drop from 47% down to 36%. Yet all three “middle class” segments went from 84% to 85%. Some analysts wanted to argue inequality was growing since the rich segment rose from 0% to 2%; while inequality may be growing (Brookings suggests it is), it is not evident from just this chart. The lowest two segments fell from 47% down to 29%. The bottom three fell from 94% to 65%. The best analysts honed in on the most dramatic change in any single group: the 450% rise in the upper middle class, from 6% up to 33%. So the most telling analytic line is: more Americans moved from the poor, lower, or middle class into the upper middle class.

The data can tell no other story. Why? Simply put, for every person who fell from a higher category, more than one person had to rise, in order for the numbers to hold up.

Three additional points. First, this data is longitudinal, that is, it covers the same people over an extended period of time. This eliminates the possibility the changes in outcome resulted from different people in the study at different times. Second, it does not include government transfers such as welfare, family assistance, etc., so it underreports the actual level of income for the poorest segment. Also, other charts displaying the data in the same study point out that the number of people moving from one income group to another increased (both up and down), meaning these groups are not static. While movement down the income chart grew more, movement up by more than one level also increased. Which is a long-winded way of saying there is still considerable movement between the income groups, and more variability with smaller numbers of big winners.

This does not mean there are not people who have suffered economically over this same time period: by sex, race, ethnicity, undereducation, technology change, and a myriad other reasons. But for every such case, the overall data still improved, which is quite remarkable. Brookings made much of the loss of the middle/middle class, the growth (as they see it) in inequality, and the increased number of people moving “down” the spectrum. But the overall movement into the upper middle class is just as telling. And that’s a little good news.

Goin’ Postal

The United States Postal Service (USPS): where to begin? A national treasure founded by the legendary Benjamin Franklin. A lifeline which literally delivered life-changing news: college acceptance (or denial), love letters between spouses separated by work or travel, family updates and sweetheart encouragements from home to distant soldiers. Calls to mind dedicated civil servants, deterred by “neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night.” A path to the middle class and the American dream for millions of employees, many veterans, all over the country.

And dead on its feet. A veritable “dead (post)man walking.” Or in the dry language of the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office (GAO), “unsustainable.”

The sad truth is the USPS as it is today can not long survive. Some seek to kill it and privatize its work. Others want to solve the problem by simply giving it more money. I favor neither. But before we jump to solutions, let’s understand the problem.

Everybody “knows” the Postal Service, but what do you really know about it? It has 600,000 employees (100,000 veterans) and 600,000 retirees and is an independent agency of the executive branch. As a civilian, it looks like a government outfit; as a federal retiree, I can say it looks that way to me, too. But it is very different. It receives no annual federal funding (some say “no tax dollars” but that is a mistake). Both Congress and the Executive Branch influence its day-to-day operations in numerous ways (just try to close a post office building and see how). Its employees have the same job security and nonpartisan rules (Hatch Act) as other federal employees, and get the same generous retirement and health benefits. They run a retail network larger than McDonalds/Starbucks/WalMart combined, own and operate over 200,000 vehicles and deliver almost half of the world’s mail (more on this curious fact later).

USPS was helped by its status as a government monopoly, but technology has proven to be a grave danger. Once upon a time, it was the only reliable way to get something from here to there. Over time, the mandate to provide daily delivery to every home and business in America changed from blessing to curse. New, more nimble rivals (UPS, FedEx, DHL) could run the numbers and start winning the more lucrative routes, and leave the less desirable ones to the Post Office. And then along came e-mail, e-commerce, e-business.

The USPS has run a deficit every year since 2007. Wait, if USPS does not receive annual federal appropriations, but they run short of money, who pays the bill? They can’t borrow from a bank, nor do they have investors like a private business. Sometimes they use funds they should set aside to fund pensions. Also, the Federal government gives USPS a line of credit to spend on things like new infrastructure or life-cycle replacement of vehicles/computers. And USPS has been dipping into it to do all that, and to cover operating expenses. Well, someone has to pay the postman, too. And you do.

But wait, some say, isn’t the cause of the annual USPS operating deficit the fact that the government makes it ‘prepay 75 years of retiree benefits in advance, a rule no other government agency of private business has to comply with (sic)‘? What this Tweet refers to is the 2006 Postal Accountability and Enhancement Act, passed without objection by both Houses of Congress and signed by President Bush (43). Prior to this law, USPS made its own rules on how it pre-funded pensions, and set aside no funding for retiree health benefits. Private companies can always cut benefits or simply go bankrupt and default on pension and health benefits. The federal government recognized if the Post Office ever failed, someone would have to keep paying its retirees’ pensions and health plans, and that would be (again): you.

This was not unusual, since the federal government was likewise concerned about generous federal pensions and health benefits and started trying to raise contributions and reduce benefits at the same time. But now the USPS suddenly had to account for its large funding shortfall; they tried for three years, then decided to stop paying the pre-funding requirement for health benefits. So since 2010, they have defaulted on this obligation every year, and since they paid no money, it can not have affected their annual deficits. The USPS unfunded liabilities are now double their annual revenues. If they were a business, they would be defunct.

The real reason for the USPS deficit is one you already know: who mails a letter anymore? The USPS infrastructure was built for a time when they were the main way to get goods and info to the last mile (your mailbox). That is no longer the case. USPS total mail volumes started declining in 2007 (due to competition, technology, and the Great Recession) and haven’t stopped, generating losses every year. Marketing (aka junk) mail has grown to one-half of Post Office deliveries, even though its cheap rates mean it generates only one-quarter of revenues. Yes, the USPS delivers half of the world’s mail because it delivers the tons (literal) of trash you (like I once did) throw directly into the trashcan next to your mailbox.

The Post Office tries to reduce operating expenses, but as I pointed out earlier, there are both political and labor (union) issues with doing so. USPS has improved productivity almost every year, but improving a failing business model will not succeed. Somewhere the world’s best buggy whip maker can explain why that is so.

However, unsustainable is not the same thing as hopeless. If the USPS keeps operating as is, or simply relies on an infusion of federal dollars (or a relaxation of its unfunded liabilities, which must eventually be paid), it will ultimately fail. What needs to be done? I do have ideas about this.

End six days a week delivery. Who needs daily mail delivery? Only one percent of Social Security recipients get checks by mail, and that’s once a month. Even those vulnerable, at-home seniors don’t get drugs delivered every day. Splitting delivery into three-days-a-week zones (Mon/Wed/Fri, Tue/Thu/Sat) would halve the delivery burden.

Return to postal boxes where appropriate. Way back when, USPS only delivered mail to local post offices in cities, then people walked to the post office to get mail when they wanted it. Add in mandatory electronic notification (they already have this as an option) when you have mail (and what it is).

Consolidate postal offices. Like military bases, start a commision which decides what stays and what goes. Sometimes it is more cost effective to keep a remote site, sometimes not. Let a nonpartisan, business-oriented commission make the call. Perhaps the USPS could generate one-time revenue by the sales of some choice locations.

Encourage retirement. USPS does this occasionally, and it’s time again. Offering early retirement and retirement bonuses can help. In the end, a retiree costs less than an employee, and if you reduce service, you need fewer employees.

Double the price of junk mail. By the rules of price elasticity, this might decrease the volume by half, which would be a good thing. If the volume reduction is less, it would actually increase net revenue!

Publish data on package delivery costs. Post Office public data cites how much package volume they deliver and the revenue, but not the associated costs. It’s true they are often the lowest cost option for packages, but if they are losing money on every package, well then, the punchline to the old joke is “they’ll make up for it in volume.”

Invest pension/health funds in other instruments. Currently these USPS funds can only invest in ultra-safe Treasury funds. Like the Federal Thrift Savings Program (TSP), let USPS invest in other safe, but far more lucrative funds.

All of the above are in the category of putting out the fire, pumping out the water, and keeping the USPS afloat. But the most important issue is: What is the purpose of the United States Postal Service? If it’s to deliver what those younger than forty sneeringly call “snail-mail” to everybody’s home, it will go away. They don’t write letters, they expect Amazon or WalMart to deliver packages, they do all their business and meet all important deadlines online.

I wish I knew what the answer to this is, but I don’t. Japan’s Post Office is a monster in banking and insurance, and was once the world’s largest financial institution. Germany’s BundesPost was heavy into telecommunications before it divested into separate organizations. Perhaps there is a business model for lots of small locations and vehicles and delivery personnel that will work in today’s environment (and the future). I hope for the Post Office’s sake (and all their employees and retirees) they figure it out.

Mailing it in

There is one thing that MAGA-hat wearers, Never Trumpers, and the Progressive resistance agree upon: everything–and I mean EVERYTHING– revolves around President Trump. Nothing better represents this delusional state of affairs than the debate over mail-in voting. To wit:

Supporters of the President are sounding the alarm that rampant fraud will accompany mail-in voting. President Trump himself has stated he opposes liberalizing mail-in voting because he believes it will only favor the Democratic Party; some Progressives apparently agree and have seized upon the pandemic quarantine as a reason to support only mail-in voting. For the record, there is no data that mail-in voting favors either party, and little evidence of widespread mail-in voting fraud. Perhaps your own view about mail-in voting is driven by these same factors. Please permit me to explain why it’s wrong to do so.

First, mail-in voting is a necessity: not everyone can make it to a polling place on election day. As an expat, mail-in voting is the only way I can participate. However, mail-in voting is an exception, not the norm. Why? While all voting methods are vulnerable to fraud, mail-in voting is more vulnerable (I’ll explain why below). Thus when the number of mail-in voters is small (as an exception), the risk of fraud changing the election results is also small, so mail-in voting poses an acceptable risk.

Second, mail-in voting poses a vulnerability even if there is no evidence of fraud. Several states use only mail-in voting, and cite their success as proof there is no issue here. However, who is interested in interfering in the state elections of Washington, Oregon, or Colorado (places relying on mail-in voting)? There are several nations (e.g., Russia and China) capable of and interested in influencing, undermining, or corrupting US federal elections. Moving to large-scale, mail-in voting changes the calculus for such nations and thus the vulnerability becomes a real threat.

Third, while the 2020 election is a federal one, everyone should know that it is run as fifty distinct state elections, with different rules in each case. Asking states to make sudden changes within months of an election, while their employees are furloughed or working from home, is a recipe for disaster, especially when both political parties are primed to cry “foul” at any suspicious instance. Wisconsin conducted an in-person election in the teeth of the pandemic and had outrageous, unfounded claims of vote tampering by both sides. States would find it difficult to make big changes now, and errors they make would only compound the confusion.

Fourth, massive mail-in voting results in a much greater time lag between election day and when the results are announced. In some cases in the past, mail-in votes weren’t even counted if their total was less than the difference between candidates established by in-person voting (i.e., the outcome could not change). If the mail-in vote total is large, all must be counted, and each mail-in vote requires additional scrutiny and verification.

Fifth, that verification process is also a point of dispute. Anyone old enough to remember the “hanging-chads” debacle in Florida in 2000 knows that the authentication of votes is subjective. Imagine the public debates, protests and the like as days lead into weeks after the election without a final result (and with constant leaks and charges of corruption)!

Sixth, current security for mail-in voting is adequate for optional, small-scale use, but not for widespread use. Every state is different, but let me use my voting experience in Ohio as a example. I am currently registered to vote there, a process that required only a government ID and a banking document with an Ohio address. I mailed in my federal postcard application for a ballot: it contained nothing more than part of my social security number and signature. I opted for an e-mail ballot, which I will fill out and e-mail back to Ohio with my signature. So the security involved is (1) my social security number, (2) my signature, (3) any government issued ID, and (4) some paper documents with my Ohio address. Let’s look at those in turn:

Throw out number four (documents with an address), as any nitwit could have forged and printed those out.
Social security numbers were commonly (and wrongly) used for identification, so the many data breaches out there mean it is likely your SSN has been compromised.
Signatures? More difficult to find, but easy to copy/forge once found.
Government ID? An American passport is incredibly secure, but your state driver’s license not so much. Yet both count.

The bottom line here is it’s not easy for you to pretend to be me and vote in Ohio, but it’s also not impossible. The real problem is not you or me, but . . .

Russia. Seventh, what may be difficult for you is easy for Russia. Or China. Or even North Korea. Remember when the Chinese hacked the US Office of Personnel Management database and made off with the Personal Identifying Information of hundreds of thousands of federal employees? What about the routine credit card data breaches; all that data is available on the dark web for pennies. When Russia was hacking into state voting systems before the 2016 election, they often accessed voter registration rolls. Those could not change votes, but they would provide the Russians with the means to affect future elections. All a foreign actor needs to do is submit the same federal postcard I used and have the absentee ballot sent to a different e-mail or physical address. Whether they may or may not have the ability to forge a signature, they could submit a vote, meaning some voters showing up at the polls would be told they had already voted, and some mail-in voters would have two ballots submitted. All this could be sorted out in time, but at what cost to the credibility of the election process?

Finally, remember that the motivation for a foreign actor need not be changing votes. As the Intelligence Community pointed out in the 2016 report on Russian interference, Russia sought to “undermine public faith in the US democratic process.” The partisan divide in the United States has made this Russian operation one of the highest pay-off influence operations in history. Intelligence officers will be studying that one for decades. And the last straw would be a drawn out, contested, post-election series of public political and legal battles as states deal with a backlog of mail-in votes.

And I won’t even go into the challenge to the US Postal Service. I know you will breathlessly await my review of the USPS in a future blog post (if you’re still in quarantine and desperately bored).

What about the risk of contracting the coronavirus while voting in-person? This is indeed a quandry. I support allowing those who are at risk (e.g., aged, suffering comorbidities, immunocompromised) to get a doctor’s note and vote by mail. But for the vast majority of voters, there is nothing especially dangerous about in-person voting, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci. People gather and stand in lines for all kinds of reasons during the quarantine. And we make some people (grocery store employees, truck drivers) work despite the dangers because what they do is essential. So is voting.

I continue to support mail-in voting, as an exception, not the norm. I contend it could be expanded and secured, but not quickly or painlessly. Voting is so important, and in-person voting has many advantages in terms of preventing fraud. Please consider this issue with the seriousness it deserves, not as yet another simple Trump-driven dynamic.

Scenes from America

Travelling between visits to my ninety-one year old Dad, brother and sister, and daughters/sons-in-law/grandchildren. Some things I have noticed along the way, which was Chicago to South Bend to Cincinnati to Baltimore and return:

Pandemic restrictions and compliance are everywhere different and distinct. In South Bend, it seems like everyone was wearing masks, except for one family we saw in the Mall. Let’s set the stage. When you enter through the (limited) entrances, you see a sign indicating masks are mandatory, as is disinfecting your hands at a dispensary station. Signs direct you to keep six feet social distancing, and instructions on the floor tell you that foot traffic inside the mall is “walk to the right” (like driving) to avoid contact. We’re coming out of a store, and directly in front of us is a family: slightly chubby, middle-aged father and mother with likewise adolescent, all sans masks and with big grins on their faces. They are walking the “wrong way” and moving directly toward other shoppers, who are scattering away from and around them. I realize I’m making huge assumptions here, but the look on the Dad’s face was “go ahead, say something.” We walked past and ignored them. What’s the point?
At a roadside Wendy’s in southern Ohio, the travellers were all wearing masks, while the locals were all walking in without them. Everyone had to eat out in the parking lot, though.
All of this comes as a result of the combination of American individualism and federalism We all grew up in States. Taxes were different, health care was different, schooling was different, age of consent was different, age to consume alcohol was different. Granted, the federal response to Covid19 has been disjointed, but no one should be surprised about the differences between states, if they understand the term “United States of America.” Within those parameters, Americans remain contrarians, oftentimes doing the opposite of what they are asked or required by even local government. That said, we all wore masks and maintained social distance. Doing as you please is license; liberty is freely choosing to do the right thing.
Places which are under federal control, like airports, have uniform rules: everyone has masks on all the time. This tells me the non-compliance is symbolic: people flaunt their views where they can, but yield whenever or wherever they know the consequences are serious. Anybody feels tough enough to bully the WalMart greeter, but TSA, not so much.
The political environment really is as bad as I imagined. In my family, we argue (loudly and openly) about everything. I found family members quietly and delicately engaging me about issues before determining what views they could/could not express. Most had stories of friends lost, jobs endangered, or public encounters which border on discomfort. Seems like everybody is walking around on eggshells, with a vocal minority (at both ends of the spectrum) waiting to scream at any infraction. Land of the free home of the reticent.
Nothing will be normal in the States until in-person school resumes. With all the two working-parent (or single-parent) families, work can’t resume until in-person school resumes. In the jurisdictions I visited, the local teachers’ unions were vigorously and publicly lobbying against in-person school and for online curricula, which has been perfunctory at best. Parents with means are arranging private education for their children. Teachers’ unions were calling out parents (and teachers!) for making private agreements for tutoring. Many parents will be stuck “homeschooling,” an oxymoron in this case. Homeschooling is a choice which requires great preparation and sacrifice; parents are now forced to do it with neither the vocation nor the support. This, not a vaccine, may prove to be the long pole in the tent to recovery.
Touchless delivery has gone to a new level. We ordered in Chinese food one night. About forty minutes later, I asked Judy where the order was. She paused to check her smartphone and said “at the door.” Seems they dropped the order at the door (no knock, no doorbell), texted her, and left.
Speaking of ethnic food, “authentic Mexican” food in America still isn’t. This was not a surprise. Perhaps somewhere near the border, or in some ethnic enclave in a bg city, one can find authentic Mexican cuisine. Tried it twice, in different areas. The workers were Mexican, and we enjoyed practicing our Spanish, but the food was still the high carb, meat- and sauce-heavy Tex-Mex version of Mexican cuisine available anywhere in the States.
We got to attend in-person Mass twice, which was a treat. In South Bend, the pews were roped off, no singing, no sign-of-peace, masks on except for the Eucharist. Near Baltimore, Mass was in the parking lot in tailgate chairs, under a hot, humid sun. Made me grateful for whoever invented the kneeler, as warm asphalt is tough on new jeans and old knees!
I noticed non-grocery stores had stocking issues. A sporting goods chain we visited had several aisles with little or no merchandise, normally a no-no in retail. I talked to a store employee who was loading home weight sets into cars. He told me they sold all they had, including the floor models, and people keep calling for more. Remember when everyone seemed to have a weight set which never got used and went for bargain prices at a garage sale? Times have changed.
Traffic on interstate highways was down, but not gone. Somehow Washington DC still managed to have traffic jams. Perhaps they were left over from before the pandemic?
On the way back to Mexico, we had to traverse BWI Marshall and Chicago O’Hare airports. Neither was impressive. At BWI, they had no TSA pre-Check lines open during the morning flight rush. But, we were in luck, as the long lines prompted TSA to open new lanes for the security search. But, the scanner announced that each and every electronic device had to be put into a separate bin. And we had eight of them, some of which were packed because we had pre-Check. Grrrrr. At O’Hare, there was also no pre-Check, but the first TSA checkpoint gave us a card which stated we were pre-Check. But we still had to go through the same security screen. But this time devices were allowed altogether. And we were approached by a homeless man begging in the security area. What? It’s no wonder why people think airport security is just theater.
Our literal last step in America was a doozy. Awaiting our AeroMexico flight to Guadalajara from Chicago, we listened to all the announcements, first in Spanish and then English. It was good to get back into practice. As we went down the jetway to board, we both said “buenas tardes” to the woman operating the console for the jetway. “I speak English.” she replied coldly. “We speak Spanish”, we responded with smiles. Guess we were guilty of microaggression. Or was it cultural appropriation? Anyway, as we stepped aboard, the flight attendant gave us a hearty “¡Bienvenidos!”

Fear of Flying

As the coronavirus rages, we’ve been cancelling all our vacations and plans to visit family in the States. As time passed, we came to two conclusions: first, there would be no end in sight to the spread of the virus; and second, since we have status as American citizens and permanent residents of Mexico, we can still travel back and forth between the two (if nowhere else). So we’re flying back to the States for a few weeks of family visits. I’ll capture my insights on what’s different flying under the coronavirus radar.

First off, planning a trip is very different: more like flying back in the 1990s, if you can remember it. There are fewer flights, fewer destinations, and connections are more necessary but less convenient. We couldn’t go nonstop from Guadalajara to Atlanta; the closest we could get nonstop to our destination (Cincinnati) was Chicago. Connections in Houston (United) and Dallas/Ft. Worth (American) had long layovers. Delta wanted to connect us through Mexico City to Atlanta to Cincy. There was nothing as simple as the short layover, one connection flights to which we were accustomed.

Prices were all over the map. We could get super-cheap fares with a overnight layover via such locations as Salt Lake City, but many of the other fares were still comparable to pre-pandemic pricing. Business class was not that much more expensive, although there is a raging online debate about spending extra for it. The extra service associated with business class is mostly gone (no drinks, no meals) but the seats are still more comfortable and it’s easier for us to social distance in a row for two. The plane did load a row at a time from the back, which was unusual.

For holders of the Mexican Permanente, there is a new immigration form to fill out when departing (still retaining the stub for returning). It looks a lot like the old one, but the section on purpose of travel (where you once had to check “other” and ensure not to check “tourist”) has been moved to the OFFICIAL USE part of the form and is filled out by the immigration official.

One surprise: there is a health form you need to fill out before going to security. I saw one person with a paper copy, but no extras anywhere. There was an empty table near security with people standing around it, but no instructions; after getting sent back from security (no lines, by the way), we went to that table and found a small notice. Here’s what you have to do: Have your smart phone read the QR code on the notice, which will send your phone’s browser to a webpage. You fill out the questionnaire (very easy) and then go through security and show it on your phone, just like your passport or boarding pass. But we had no advance notice of this. We were asked the same questions again while awaiting boarding, along with the usual security questions.

Many of the airport services were closed, but some food/accessory stores were open, so no need to starve. But remember, onboard service is very limited, so you either need to buy something and take it aboard or bring something from home. Our flight (AeroMexico) was about 80% filled, but everybody did their “social distancing” thing, most of the time.

For the first time in my life, I saw people actually waiting for their row to be called to board. I would love that to be a change which endures from this unfortunate pandemic.

The flight was no different, with the exception of everybody wearing masks and the much more limited services. Upon landing, Global Entry was working in O’Hare, so we skipped through Customs/Immigration quickly. We were given a US health questionnaire to fill out while in flight, but no one asked us for it. So much for strict measures.

All things considered, not an unpleasant set of changes for the privilege of international air travel. You still get there, and everyone seems concerned that you do so without getting sick. Key points to remember:

Are you allowed to travel to the country you’re entering, and why?
If it is the US, are there any State rules that apply AFTER you leave the airport?
How do you address the need for food/drink given all the time in the airport/in the airplane?
Can you download/find the health form online before you fly?

And as always, during these unusual times, have patience. Everyone is trying to figure how things work now, and it’s not always obvious what works, and what doesn’t. The fact that we can still travel (even in a limited way) is amazing in itself!