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A different way to look at the pandemic

Back in the paleolithic era (circa 1995), I worked long-range analysis for the Chief of Staff, US Army. I wrote a think piece about the internet. The prevailing view was there would be a “digital divide” based on access. A second, less widely-held opinion was that internet access would become a public utility (like water): so essential, it would be ubiquitous. I held to the second view, and postulated that there would still be a “digital divide,” only that this divide would be between the people who could understand and act on the digital information firehose (call them digitals), and those that couldn’t (that is, digitally disabled). It might be too early to tell, but I think I got it right (even a blind squirrel finds a nut on occasion).

Fast forward to today and our coronavirus quarantine in a fully digital world. We’re bombarded with info about the pandemic: on TV, from social media, in online news feeds. What do we believe? What should we act on? How to process all this . . . stuff? In the next two posts, I’ll try to give you a frame of reference. Today, I will focus on figuring out what we know, don’t know, and can assume. Next post, I’ll pull out the crystal ball (I took it with me in retirement) and suggest what might happen after we’re all done with the coronavirus (whenever that is).

The digitally disabled are the ones sharing stories from friends of friends on social media, often with impressive credentials (CoVid Task Force Director, or Senior CDC researcher) full of “do this, don’t do that advice.” If you search, you can never find these original sources. If you fact-check the advice, you’ll find it is a mix of common sense and outright fabrication. What you can find are the authoritative websites of the CDC, WHO et al and what they really say. I find the Johns Hopkins site and the Financial Times graphs very helpful. Be a digital, and track the sources.

The same advice applies to the news. News reports, like early reports from the battlefield or eyewitness accounts of a crime, are invariably not quite right. Maybe not totally wrong, but still not right. I have run across several verifiable accounts from emergency room doctors that are very interesting, but I don’t share them widely, because although they are real, they are fragmentary: something perhaps true at a point in time, but not the whole story. And nobody has the whole story, yet. Even the data we have are very suspect: in some cases because the sources are bad, in others because we don’t know what to count.

What do I mean? Are mortality rates good data? Suppose someone with advanced Alzheimer’s disease catches CoVid19 and dies: from which did they die? If someone is not tested for CoVid19 and dies with flu-like symptoms, does it count as a seasonal flu or coronavirus fatality? What about data concerning confirmed cases of coronavirus? China just admitted it hasn’t been reporting asymptomatic cases. Imagine a hypothetical country which refuses to do any CoVid19 testing (like North Korea): they will have zero confirmed cases, just a very bad flu season! So we have to very, very careful about the data. And have a little sympathy for doctors and political leaders trying to make life-or-death policy decisions in a period of very sketchy data!

Here’s an example from the Financial Times website (a good source, just to show you how little even good sources can know):

I used this earlier version of the data because it includes the # days criteria lines. Their latest graphs do not.

This chart shows death rates as of Sunday, March 29th. You might infer that the US is doing worse, since our rate is accelerating (based on the slope). France and Spain were doing still worse, although their slopes indicate things are improving. China and Iran are doing ok; Japan is doing great. Except China is lying, Iran is clueless, and Japan has been accused of deflating its numbers (their numbers jumped immediately after they postponed the Olympics). Yes, all these data are provided by the national governments. The real story to this graph: most everybody is bunched between reported deaths doubling every two and three days. Those are the margins we’re working with, and much of the variability can be explained by demography, culture, health care resources, and population density, which are all long-term givens, as opposed to crisis policies.

Here’s another one from FT, this time with cumulative cases:

Here the US trend is better (see the curve bending?) although we have the most cases (look out, here comes Turkey!). But again, notice that the entire world is bunched between doubling-every-two-to four days.

The outlier in all this is South Korea, where the data are probably pretty good and the results outstanding. Many cite the early testing they did as key, but forget South Korea (1) is a compact country the size of Indiana with a density twenty times the US (2) has a population that is younger, healthier, and more compliant, and (3) instituted draconian control measures like mandatory locator services (using cell phones) with fines and jail time. Imagine that working in New York!

You probably have seen the R0 (called “R nought”, around two) for coronavirus mentioned: it is the rate of infectability, or how many people on average does an infected person infect. R0 is based on all kinds of solid assumptions, but as one medical researched commented, it is a variable: an infected person in a room all alone who never comes in contact with anyone has an R0 of zero. How does an R0 of two work out? Quarantine measures can slow the infection, and assuming those recovered are immune (not proven), eventually the pandemic subsides, but not before almost all of the planet has been exposed. See, it’s not about not getting CoVid19: many if not most will. It’s all about making sure not everybody gets sick at the same time in the same place, overwhelming emergency medical resources (which drives up the fatality rate). Oh, and if/when we get a vaccine, of course, the lucky few can be protected.

We need ventilators, right now. They are not difficult to build, but every machine has to be tested, so of course we also need to ramp up testing devices and people to run the tests. Unless we want to use untested machines, in which case we might want to change our liability laws (in the notably litigious States), because some device is going to malfunction, and there will be a class action lawsuit. Wonder why some firms are not so excited to be building a device in such high demand?

But then there is the little problem of the outcomes for ventilator patients. If you need a ventilator and can’t get one, you are probably going to die. However, data on ventilator use for ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome, which results from CoVid19 among other things) are that about forty-to-sixty percent of all patients on ventilators still die. Total numbers of ventilators is a meaningless statistic: what matter is the number available at a given hospital at a specific time. Over time, we can move the ventilators from place to place.

So be very careful about drawing conclusions from any of the data, especially national data. Countries are not uniform in size, density, government honesty or culture norms, nor in when their epidemic started. Let alone the various policy options they choose. When all is said and done, there should be enough good data to make comparisons. Those who try to do so now will look foolish, for a good reason.

Enough of the complications: what do we know, and can we assume? The following data points and conclusions have been consistent over time:

Social distancing can flatten the curve and delay the number of cases in a given location at a given time, which is all important.
Eighty percent of people infected with CoVid19 are either asymptomatic (perhaps twenty-five percent!) or have flu-like symptoms. This is why the CDC is considering having everybody wear masks: there may be a sizable group of infected people walking around without symptoms. Some of us may have already recovered from CoVid19 and not know it! Most people who are infected will feel sick; a much smaller group will feel really, really sick. Only about five percent require hospitalization.
The issue of intensive care and ventilators is primarily for those with pre-existing conditions such as diabetes, obesity, high blood pressure. From another direction, seventy-eight percent of those infected who ended up in intensive care had a pre-existing condition. Even the preliminary data on deaths among the young point to pre-existing conditions (especially obesity).
Widespread viral testing (whether you have the virus) is necessary but not sufficient; we also need antibody or serum testing to confirm who already has had the virus (assuming it provides immunity, which is likely). The combination of these two types of tests provides a path back to normal life. As my son-in-law surmised, we might soon (and for a year or two) be walking around with disease passports which certify why we’re allowed out and about.

That would be quite a change, but who would rather stay in quarantine while the economy grinds to a complete halt? Would such a change be permanent? I’ll explore that with my next post!

The Deep State vs Anonymous

This is a nonpartisan post, believe it or not.

Most of the country is divided into two camps. The first camp sees an outsider President trying to “drain the swamp” and being thwarted by a conspiracy of bureaucrats dubbed “the Deep State.” The second camp sees a proto-fascist “Stable Genius” held in check by the likes of courageous, patriotic bureaucrats like the character Anonymous (insider author of articles and books about thwarting the President).

Looking at those two statements, you might conclude that if one side is correct, the other must be wrong. This is normally the case with two apparently exclusive theses. I would like to suggest a third possibility: both are wrong, at least about the bureaucracy.

Before I do, let me state my bona fides. I worked within that federal bureaucracy for thirty-eight years. I attended nearly every available type of training for bureaucrats, from the typing course offered by the Department of Transportation (it never took!) to the Federal Executive Institute, the Harvard Seminar, and the National War College. I worked in three different Departments and an independent office. I attended countless interagency meetings from windowless rooms in Langley to the marble halls of the Old Executive Office building to the White House SitRoom. I served under every President from Jimmy Carter to Barack Obama. Over half my career was in positions of executive authority, where I got to meet with leaders (political appointees and career civil service) across the government bureaucracy and help make decisions about “the sausage.”

New administrations often distrust the career bureaucrats who welcome them to power. I participated in the transition team from Bush ’43 to Obama, and I guarantee you it happened then. It is hard for some incoming political appointees and staffers to grasp the concept of a nonpartisan group of technocratic experts there to “help you.” If you come from the political world, there are two sides: the “good guys” and the opponent to be defeated. There is no room for neutrals on the sideline. It is equally difficult for political types to understand when the bureaucrats tell them “we will do every (legal) thing in our power to make your policies succeed, including telling you when they are misguided or likely to fail. But we will do so privately–to you–and not in a manner supporting any particular political perspective.” (The word “legal” in that last sentence is very important, but there are oodles of lawyers and ombuds ((I was one for thousands of analysts)) there to assist any bureaucrat who wonders where the line is–it is not a decision anyone needs to make by themselves!)

The politicos may be distrusting, yet this is exactly how the bureaucracy works. It isn’t that the bureaucrats don’t have political beliefs, and don’t bring some bias to the table. Rather, they subsume those personal views in order to support the legal–there that word is again–policies of the duly-elected or appointed officials. That is the way the federal government is supposed to work, and the way that it does work, even today . . . mostly.

So there is no Deep State. Nothing that has happened so far in the Trump administration requires a Deep State in order to be explained. What about the “Russia hoax?” I have spent hours reading every document about that story: the Steele dossier, the Mueller report, the Horowitz IG report, various FOIA releases from the DOJ, FBI, etc., the dueling reports from all the relevant House and Senate committees. What happened, if not a conspiracy to ensure Mr. Trump was never elected or impeached if he was?

Simple. A small group of FBI counterintelligence analysts and the senior executives who supervised them saw what they are always looking for: a “Tom Clancy” style Manchurian candidacy that they were going to expose and become heroes. They went after it with a passion, even skewing the FISA process and swallowing whole the dossier which is so rife with error as to be laughable. In hindsight, they got caught up in the very real Russian attempts to divide the electorate and thought they had found the super-secret pièce de résistance: a Putin mole named Donald Trump. No conspiracy, just overzealous analysts with poor leadership. There is a reason one outcome from this entire affair was the Attorney General’s decision to limit the ability of his agents to begin such an investigation of a Presidential candidacy: previously, it required nothing more than a single executive to initiate!

I have friends who share “Q” or Q Anon” material on social media, and I have yet to see a single thing which (1) makes any sense and (2) isn’t easily explainable by means other than a Deep State. I invite anyone unfamiliar with Occam’s Razor to click on the link: vast, intricate conspiracies make great novels or Netflix dramas, real life is far more mundane and explicable. Most administrations have a cadre of former government officials who can help facilitate the relationship with the bureaucracy; this one has few. Thus this administration is uniquely suited to seeing any disagreement or discussion of countervailing issues as disloyal or political. That doesn’t make it so.

By now my MAGA buddies are considering unfriending me while my Progressive amigos are high-fiving: not so fast, my friends!

Before anyone gets too excited, no one should celebrate the actions of Anonymous (the writer detailing a resistance to the administration within the bureaucracy). This is not principled action or even peaceful noncompliance. If someone in the bureaucracy disagrees with a policy, they can (1) go to the IG or ombuds and file a complaint, (2) resign, or (3) swallow it and do their job. Actively trying to undermine the policy is NOT a morally acceptable option.

For one thing, I have heard so many times that ‘what Trump just did is unconstitutional’ only to have the issue adjudicated by the courts as . . . constitutional. You may disagree with it, but you (as a bureaucrat) don’t get a say on it; the courts do. Second, I hear ‘Trump’s action is unprecedented so (I get to do something unprecedented too).’ I think we all learned how wrong this logic is in kindergarten, not to mention I often find precedents for the actions which negate the premise. Notice nothing I said suggests the policies are good or that you (as a bureaucrat) have to like them. Just they are legal and you cannot undermine them.

Furthermore, the public disclosures suggesting an active effort to thwart the administration in fact undermine the nonpartisan character of the career civil service. As I said, in the best of times, we had to convince new administrations we were there “to help.” That will be infinitely more difficult in the future. This goes double for the many former senior leaders who are so active now in media. I understand they feel the times are perilous and demand action. I ask only that they consider the long-term ramifications for the career civil service, and limit their very public criticism to when it is absolutely necessary. Which would not be every night on the round of talking-head shows.

Or publicly endorsing candidates. Think it’s not a growing problem? Check out this WaPo article. I know (and respect) many of these people. It is not that past leaders of the civil service didn’t face serious challenges. Just to keep it within living memory, Watergate anyone? Grouping together and endorsing a candidate–nay, more so explicitly opposing the sitting President–is the type of partisan activity poisonous to the standing of the bureaucracy.

It is true these individuals retain a first amendment right to offer political opinions. But not everything we HAVE the right to do IS right to do. It is one thing to imagine a hypothetical situation where only members of the civil service were privy to something, and therefore believed they had an obligation to make it public. That’s what happened with the whistleblower and subsequent impeachment. I disagreed with how serious that issue was, but not with the whistleblower making a complaint. But what we see now is political complaints coming from the bureaucracy (past or present), and it is not like there isn’t plenty of criticism already.

Some career civil servants have chosen to resign and explain their decisions publicly. This is appropriate and honorable, whether one agrees with their reasoning or not. In the end, their choices to act within the system (and leave it) support the nonpartisan nature of the civil service, even if they are publically critical.

On the other hand, there is leaking classified information. Now there’s a story citing government officials stating the intelligence community provided warning of the nature of the coronavirus and the inadequacy of China’s response back in January. Assuming this is true, kudos to the community; job well done. However, the fact that this information has now been leaked to the press? For what purpose? There is no value in this information in responding to the virus today. When we are safely past this crisis, we need an in-depth investigation of who-knew-what-when and what-did-they-do/not do. This is a leak of sensitive intelligence information solely for the purpose of criticizing the administration’s response. And some wonder why others see a conspiracy.

One side claims the public disclosures of Anonymous prove there is a Deep State, while the other side suggests it is patriotic and shows the need for active resistance by the bureaucracy. Such reasoning evinces the greater danger: the politicization of the career civil service bureaucracy, much to our collective regret.

The nonpartisan career civil service is a treasure. If you scoff at that comment, read a history of the federal government in the 19th century before civil service reform: a stinking mass of corruption and nepotism likely to ruin everything it touched. Today’s civil service is full of dedicated experts trying their best to work in the public’s interest. A real tragedy would ensue if we let our political differences lead to politicizing the federal bureaucracy: that would truly be a national disaster.

Things to do in Quarantine

The Governor of Jalisco asked everyone in the state to observe a 5 day stay-at-home quarantine, with the exception of going out to get food or medicine. It is a pretty mild measure compared to what’s being introduced in the States and Canada, and certainly a taste of the future, given the arrival of CoVid19 here on a plane from Vail, Colorado. I thought I would start posting some of the interesting ways you can fill the time, with an emphasis on how the internet and online resources can help, since this is the first global quarantine to occur with those resources available. Feel free to add in any interesting resources you know/use in the comments!

In terms of news, the New York Times and Washington Post are providing all CoVid19 coverage free, so you can access them to keep up to date. If you choose to read their political commentary, that’s up to you! For data on the outbreak, I still find the best tracker to be this one from Johns Hopkins. Another amazing source for data hounds is the free coverage from the Financial Times; they have country data arrayed on a series of graphs, and they use logarithmic scales, as is appropriate for exponential rates (but of course, you knew that!). Of course, the CDC homepage is the place to go for any talk of tests, treatments, and cures. Please don’t rely on FaceBook friends of friends for your medical advice!

Looking for something to read? If you have a library card, your local library probably already offers you a download option, but there’s also Overdrive, Project Gutenberg (which has many classics), and the US Library of Congress. These are the times that try men’s souls, so pick up Paine’s pamphlets or perhaps War & Peace, since all you have is time!

Had enough surfing and reading, now you need to DO something? The International Space Station comes round every hour and a half or so. Use this site to track it, then pour yourself a nice glass of wine and go watch it on its next nighttime pass overhead (no telescope needed). Ponder for a moment those brave men and women who willingly go up there to a quarantine of sorts all the time.

Need to be even more active? Here’s a link to the Wall Street Journal’s list of workouts (with more links in it). Wait, you can’t get past the paywall? Anytime you run into that problem, go to this website and input the URL from the blocked page; most times they have an archived copy! And here is Good Housekeeping’s list of free livestream workout classes.

Getting back to your computer, you can become the family historian pretty quickly using Ancestry and checking out Genealogy.com or FamilySearch. Even if all you have is a few names, you’ll quickly be amazed at the data available now online, and better yet, you may be one of the lucky ones whose family has already been researched by some distant relative!

Maybe try out some new/old games? There is a website called Old-games which has thousands of what’s called “abandonware” programs. These are old computer games from as far back as the 1980s that have been updated to run on modern computers and available for download (free if you pick a slow download option, a minimal fee otherwise). Excellent time-killers, and maybe a little nostalgia: I found a game I played on my Commodore 64!

Of course I would be remiss if I didn’t mention all of the religious resources. I am sure every major faith is online in a big way, but for Catholics, there is a site with links to live broadcasts of the Mass in English, as well as the Holy Rosary, and the breviary. Your diocese probably subscribes to Formed, an online network full of movies, documentaries and the like; check with your parish!The Magnificat, an online resource for daily prayers and more, is offering free access during the crisis. Even if you’re spiritual but not religious, just watching these events can help bring your blood pressure down. Try this YouTube selection of Gregorian chant: can’t fail to relax!

Got a gap in your edge-ah-ma-cation? There is probably something you don’t know, or want to learn, at The Great Courses. These cost money, but they are on sale right now! Free courses are available from many sources, such as Harvard, MIT, Coursera, and OpenLearn. No need to certify or stress about the test, but perhaps a way to structure some of your time to a meaningful end.

If you insist on checking out social media, perhaps spend a few minutes first at the home of the media bias chart. This respected resource shows where common media sources lie on a scale of fact vs. propaganda and left vs. right ideology. You may not agree with exactly where they place everything, but rest assured, if you’re reading things way to the left or right–or anything on the bottom of the chart–you’re probably wasting your time.

That’s all for now. Again, please add your ideas/suggestions in the comments!

New colors

Sea Glass with a darker green accent for the fireplace. You can make out the yellow of the courtyard, too.

Judy and I just spent the last three weeks hosting a group of between six and eight Mexican workers who completed several projects, most notably, painting our entire house, inside and out. They were with us from 8:30 in the morning until 5:30-6:00 in the evening, Monday through Friday, with a half day on Saturday. They did great work, including painting behind several climbing plants, even two rose bushes. Every night, they cleaned up and moved things so we could resume using rooms as they finished.

With all the strangers coming and going, our dog thought we had lost our collective minds, although after all this time, he has decided está bien. The workers really were quite considerate, but I have to say that three weeks of people wandering around our house was enough. Not to mention we’re out of Coca Cola. And Mexico is just starting to enforce social distancing and closures and the like, so the timing actually worked well.

Another accent wall down the hallway. The sunlight makes the walls seem mottled with yellow, but they are sea glass.

Our house was still the original beige we chose eight years ago, so it was time for some accent painting and a little color. And we had some salitre to fix. For those unfamiliar, salitre (literally saltpeter) is a peculiar problem here in Mexico. It’s a condition where moisture works its way up from the soil through the foundation and into the concrete and brick walls, leading to paint peeling and cracking. I’ve heard several unconvincing explanations for why it happens, and even more unconventional–if not nonsensical–treatments. In the end, you scrape, treat, seal and repaint when it bothers you enough.

Our pallete is a combination of sea glass with a darker green for accents. We added a red accent wall in one bathroom. The bedrooms are from the same general pallete, but are deep blue, purple and gray. For the outside we kept the same bright yellow (it also shows up inside on our terraza and the atrium), except we used a better quality of paint with a full primer base that should last longer. The tropical sun is murder on your exteriors here; we just repainted after only three years!

So we’ll begin social distancing in our freshly re-painted house. At least the colors are soothing!

A short history of Mexico, for Gringos

Back in the day, when I worked for the US federal government, I considered myself pretty well-read on matters of politics and history. Yet I had a glaring gap in knowledge when it came to Mexico: it was the forgotten next-door neighbor, a bit player that popped up once in the middle of the nineteenth century, again at the beginning of the twentieth, but mostly resided in the background. This was how Mexico was portrayed in my childhood education, and still was the way it played out during the Cold War histories north of the border (NOB).

In case my gringo friends suffer from a similar lack, here’s a short recapitulation of Mexican history.

Most everyone knows the region called Mexico today was once the land of several ancient Mesoamerican civilizations: Olmecs and Toltecs, Mayans and Mexica (or Aztecs). All were large, well-organized, purpose-driven (and bloody) societies: Tenochtitlan (now Mexico City) was the largest city in the world in the 14th century. By the time Cortés and his men arrived two hundred years later, they were awed by the huge city constructed on man-made islands!

Everyone knows the Conquistadores arrived, the locals died, and the colony of Nueva España resulted. The ensuing colonial system enriched a ruling class of Peninsulares (Spaniards born in Spain)) and Criollos (Spaniards born in Mexico) and exploited the indigenous peoples and the Mestizos, people of mixed ancestry. All this leads up to the Mexican War of Independence in 1810.

Padre Miguel Hidalgo y Costilla issued his famous call (el grito de dolores) for independence. Even many Mexicans today don’t realize that this call was not against the Spanish crown; Hidalgo defended King Carlos IV, who had recently been deposed by Napoleon (yes, that Napoleon). Hidalgo launched his revolution against the colonial system, believing that if the Spanish king only knew how bad things were in Nueva España, he would fix it. Mexican Independence Day, September 16th, is a huge fiesta when leaders in every town perform a variation on el grito.

While no one knows exactly what “¡Vivas!” Hidalgo called, it worked, and Mexico gained its independence. But only after a bloody war where several armies fought against each other, changed sides, and most of the leaders were captured, tortured, and killed. Peace only came when all sides were exhausted, and the outside power (Spain) became a Republic and lost interest. All-against-all violence to exhaustion becomes one recurring theme of Mexican history.

The general who led the final battle to control Mexico City, Augustín de Iturbide, became Mexico’s first Presidente, although within a year he was emperor! The wartime divisions between Republicans who wanted to liberalize or overthrow the system and Traditionalists who wanted a benign but powerful leader continued unabated, and became the second theme of Mexican history. Within a year, Antonio López de Santa Anna (yes, that Santa Anna) led a Republican force that deposed Iturbide, who fled abroad. Upon returning to Mexico, he was betrayed and executed. Death upon defeat is a third Mexican history theme.

A series of Presidentes followed, while General Santa Anna became famous for defeating a Spanish attempt to regain Mexico. Santa Anna, calling himself “the Napoleon of the West,” served as Presidente twelve times over twenty-two years. Among his misadventures were political moves which instigated the Texas uprising, and the atrocities that forces under his command committed in San Antonio and Goliad, resulting in the permanent loss of Texas. Later he was exiled, only to be welcomed back when the government needed his military skills (a French invasion in 1838) or when he schemed with the US government to sell some Mexican territory (in 1846). The latter became a pretext for the US invasion of Mexico, wherein he unsuccessfully defended Mexico City, lost all of Mexico’s northern lands, and was again exiled. He would survive to return to be Presidentebefore being exiled yet again. Santa Anna was the first of Mexico’s caudillos, military strongmen who became de facto rulers, and another recurring meme of Mexican history.

After a desultory series of battles between Republicans and Traditionalists, Benito Juárez assumed the Presidency in 1858. Juarez was an accomplished lawyer who came from humble indigenous beginnings, mirroring the story of his contemporary Abraham Lincoln up north. He instituted a series of Republican reforms, survived an insurrection against the same (The War of Reform), and resumed his Presidency after a 5 year interlude when France invaded, established a Latin Empire under Maximilian, then was forced to withdraw (you guessed it: Maximilian was executed). Americans already know the most famous battle of that war: an early Mexican army victory over the invading French at Puebla on May 5th, 1862 (hence Cinqo de Mayo).

Juárez’s success in establishing central government authority, separating church and state, and expelling a foreign invader make him a unique hero in Mexican history, and the only individual honored with a national holiday in Mexico (March 21st, his birthday).

In 1876, Porfirio Díaz, a successful general during the War of Reform and the French intervention, overthrew the Presidency upon the principle of no re-election. Ironically, Díaz did step aside after a term, but then returned to rule Mexico for thirty-five years, an era known as the Porfiriato. This period featured autocratic rule by a group of technocrats (called los científicos, or the men of science) who emphasized stability and progress, while doing little to improve the lot of the majority of the people living in poverty.

Such neglect led to the Mexican revolution in 1910, initiated by Francisco Madero and other liberals. The revolution devolved into a bloody civil war, with constitutional armies under Pancho Villa (yes, that Pancho Villa), Álvaro Obregón and Venustiano Carranza, traditionalist forces under General Victoriano Huerta, a peasant army under Emiliano Zapata, and various guerilla groups all fighting one another. After seven bloody years and the death of ten percent of the population, Carranza came out on top and promulgated a new constitution in 1917.

Carranza was succeeded by a series of fellow generals (Obregón and Plutarco Calles), but intrigue, revolt and assassination remained a serious challenge to stability. The new liberal ascendancy continued the tradition of central government control, but in the name of socialist principles on behalf of the people. Strict anti-clerical provisions stripped the Catholic Church of all property and prohibited any religious influences in politics. This led to the brief (1926-29) but violent Cristero rebellion, which left anti-clerical laws on the books but relaxed any enforcement.

To avoid the succession crises which had bedeviled past Mexican administrations, Presidentes were limited to a single term, and the Partido Revolucionario Institucional or PRI became the de facto ruling body of Mexico. The PRI hand-selected leaders for seventy-five years, during a period that included such important events as nationalization of the oil industry and creation of enormous government entities such as CeMex and PeMex, rapid industrialization and population growth, emigration to the United States, and the economic integration brought on by NAFTA.

Starting in 2000, Mexico entered into a true multi-party system, where first the PAN (Partido Acción Nacional) and now Morena (Movimiento Regeneración Nacional) have won elections, as well as the PRI.

In completing this post, I was struck by the parallels with American history, although in most cases the comparison is one of “roads not taken.” T.R. Fehrenbach titles his Mexican history (in inglés) Fire and Blood, for good reason. MesoAmerican prehistory was dependent upon blood-letting. The various Mexican wars of revolution, independence or invasion usually featured betrayals and treachery, leading to postwar reprisals against the losing side. There is a constant tension between a ruling elite based on ethnicity or religion or party and a larger mass of the poor just trying to make ends meet. At times a strong leader emerges who often makes dramatic changes, but sometimes overstays his welcome.

When you see all that Mexico has been through, it seems amazing they have come so far.

Views from the Lake

Friends kindly donated tickets to us for a cruise on Lake Chapala. The event was a fundraiser for a local dog ranch, but for us it was a unique opportunity to see lakeside from a different perspective.

Now with fewer words, more pictures!

The Batur, a three level floating fiesta

Storm clouds threatened as we departed the dock . . .

but cleared as we got further from shore. This shot looks toward the Racquet club.

The mountains are very brown here in the middle of the dry season.

By this point, we knew there would be no storm, but what about sunset?

Right on schedule; Anther picture perfect day lakeside!

Need to Know: The Coronavirus, or CoVid19

While sometimes tongue-in-cheek (better than sneezing-in-hand), here is a useful (I hope) compendium about the thing literally filling the air: CoVid19–with links to authoritative sites or solid opinions, as a figurative antidote to what I see and hear on social and mass media.

Should I even care about CoVid19? Are you old or infirm (or especially a smoking man), then yes. Much like the flu, the virus seems to prey on those already at the edge of health. CoVid19 seems to be uniquely sexist, attacking and felling men far more often than women. I hope someone brings the appropriate lawsuit in the US Ninth District Court. If the virus gets into the US court system, it will never get back out. If you’re young or healthy, you should have the same view of coronavirus as you do of the seasonal flu: you don’t want it, you’ll be unhappy if you get it, and you’ll be angry at the friend who gave it to you. End of story.

Isn’t CoVid19 more contagious and more deadly than the flu? No one knows yet. See, the problem here is any analysis you see about lethality or contagion rates is based upon data from China. Data from China is similar in accuracy and precision to news from the National Enquirer: it’s not that it can’t be correct, just that even they don’t know if it is correct. China has a long history of doctoring data to fit the government’s line. Furthermore, there is the so-called denominator problem (sorry, I never promised there would be no math!). CoVid19 is not like a disease in the pandemic movies where people just drop dead (and are therefore easy to count) but rather the kind where eighty percent have a cough, a fever, and perhaps shortness of breath. Some will even be asymptomatic: infected with nothing to show for it! So the number of people infected may be far higher than even the Chinese can count–and they count in billions, remember–because millions of Chinese just thought they were a little hungover, or the smog was really bad last week, or whatever, and they never went to the hospital or were tested. Thus the denominator (the number below, in the fraction) may be far larger, which means the infection rate may be higher, but the death rate is probably lower than we think!

Right now the virus already looks more contagious than the seasonal flu. As I write, officials in Washington State are investigating whether it has been in their area for more than six weeks without being detected (or was mistaken for the flu). China originally estimated the mortality rate to be almost seven percent, which is many times more lethal than the flu. But, that estimate focused on the very sick, elderly folks who showed up at hospitals in Wuhan: later estimates have dropped (and will probably continue to do so) to below one percent (but still higher than the seasonal flu).

Should I buy/wear a mask? If you have chronic halitosis, or want to avoid putting on makeup, yes. Also, if you are already confirmed with a case of CoVid19, the little paper masks will keep you from literally coughing mucus on the healthy people around you. Otherwise, they are useless, as the virus can pass through them. The exception is for medical staff, who are trying to cut down on sick patients coughing on them, so leave the paper masks to the professionals!

Now with respect to the N95 disposable masks: these run around US$30 each online and are good for eight hours. They can be reused if uncontaminated. They do filter out the coronavirus (and many other bad things). If you fall into the high risk groups and are really afraid, buy some and wear in public

What should I do to prepare if/when Covid19 becomes a pandemic? First, a technical definition: an epidemic is an increase in disease incidence beyond what is normally expected. A pandemic simply means a disease which has become epidemic in multiple countries/continents (hence global). It doesn’t mean the disease is especially deadly or even serious. When such a disease becomes part of the environment, in that it comes and goes all the time, it moves from epidemic/pandemic to endemic: you already know of one: the seasonal flu. So what do you do?

On the personal side, wash your hands frequently, cough into your elbow, and be alert for a fever. Stay away (literally, stand back) from anyone coughing/sneezing/etc. and minimize your exposure to crowds or public places. Do not follow information on social media, unless it links (like I do here) to sites like your State health agency, the CDC, or the WHO. A very good data site is available from Johns Hopkins. Others may simply be trying to get you upset!

On the societal side, sickness and quarantines can lead to a temporary breakdown in the global supply chain and/or services. Have a stockpile of one month’s supply of critical medicines (something you should probably always have as an expat!). Buy a week’s worth of non-perishable food items, a case or garrofon of bottled water, maybe an extra ration of eggs, rice or other things to fill out some meals. Don’t forget pet food! Any disruption is unlikely to last more than a few days to maybe two weeks, so there is no reason to go full “prepper.” You are just trying to make life a little less uncomfortable IF a supply problem arises.

As an expat, should I head back NOB? You should be wherever your most appropriate health care is. If you’re healthy and have confidence in your local doctor, stay. If you’re in one of the “at-risk” groups, you have to weigh the additional risk of public exposure in driving cross-country for days or flying (note: flying may not be as dangerous for infection as you may have been led to believe). Exposure is the key to infection, and when you are traveling, you are exposed (one way or another) to many more people.

What do I do if I get sick? Same as usual: check your symptoms, check with your doctor. The keys to CoVid19 are high fever, cough, and shortness of breath. If you have different symptoms, you probably have a different illness! If you get especially acute symptoms, or they persist, seek medical assistance immediately (sound familiar?).

Is my government prepared? In the US, Canada, and Mexico, yes. Contrary to some news reports, the US CDC budget was not cut (proposed cuts were not enacted). The sizable US federal bureaucracy which exists to identify and fight disease is just as robust and capable today as in the past. Some have made much of the elimination of the Ebola coordinator position on the US National Security Council staff: it was created to deal with Ebola and never intended to be permanent. This particular position was cut when John Bolton decided to reduce the NSC staff. This staff waxes and wanes in size under different administrations, and there is no right answer over how big it should be. People can have an honest disagreement about whether such a permanent position is needed, but it is hardly evidence of a lack of national preparedness.

Is there anything else to worry about? Coronaviruses don’t tend to mutate as much as flu viruses do. CoVid19 already seems to be good at spreading: viruses don’t necessarily become more lethal (except in the movies), because that means less spreading (if everybody dies, there is no one left to infect). As always, one major worry is people doing stupid things in overreacting: killing pets, attacking strangers, or not drinking Corona cerveza!

What is the most likely outcome? For healthy you, you might catch two (or more) bouts of flu-like illness this season. A disease blip which dominates the media and causes some minor disruptions (maybe the iPhone 12 comes out next January vice September: TEOTWAWKI!) and major hysteria for a time. Maybe your local supermarket will run out of some items, either due to hoarding or supply disruptions. Probably becomes endemic and joins the list of causes of the seasonal illnesses like the flu.

Oh, and don’t look at your 401(k) or stock portfolio. That may really make you sick.

The Ciclopista: A story of Mexico

The ciclopista, with different colors, green poles, and cars parked on it in Ajijic.

Lakeside is a world unto itself: a string of small Mexican towns with an equally large expat population. The villages lie along the north shore of Lake Chapala, and they are connected by a single road: the carretera or “main street” to those from NOB. This carretera is emblematic of small town Mexico: it is only two lanes wide with some parking as it runs through the village of Ajijic. Alongside most of the carretera there is also a paved strip called the ciclopista, or bike path. Except where it isn’t there.

West of Ajijic, where the ciclopista is either just an extension of the road or divided old-school by temporary concrete barriers

Locals use the path to bike to/from work, or to walk to catch the busses which run along the carretera. Expats walk their dogs on it, jog or stroll on it, and sometimes drive golf carts down it. Motorcyclists use it to pass on the right, when they aren’t just passing on the right six inches from your car door. People park their cars on it in front of businesses in town. Where it is wider, as in the shaded area in La Floresta, people in a hurry drive down it, passing the slow crawl of cars stuck in the single (legal) driving lane.

In their defense, before it WAS a parking lane

The local government got a grant from the State to refurbish and improve the ciclopista. Previously, there was a variety of things delineating the ciclopista: concrete barriers, simple poles with reflectors, some trash cans with signs, some speed-bumps to let you know you were crossing the lane divide. Yet these were mostly permissive, in that they told you not to–but didn’t actually stop you from–driving there (as confirmed by the legendary tapatios who got tired of waiting in line and zoomed down it!).

Of course, before the work began, there was little civic engagement: suddenly, work teams started tearing up the road under banners proclaiming a State-funded refurbishment. Workers broke up asphalt, laid pipes, dug trenches and generally made a hash out of the one road which connects the communities Rumors abounded: they were laying fibre-optic cable (no) or widening the carretera to four lanes (no).

Soon the refurbishment began to take shape: the pipes were electric lines for new streetlights (a welcome addition, if true). The lights would be positioned among large concrete barriers which vaguely resemble World War II anti-tank obstacles. Oh, and amidst the concrete, small indentations for (wait for it) . . . planters!

Nice barriers! and notice the small planters in the middle!

With predictable results:

A Monster truck, which the crew was able to free!

Here we are, months into ciclopista reconstruction.

Maybe this will be a ramp someday. Maybe not. ¡Es México!

Traffic remains stalled, although quite manageable if considered in NOB terms. Barriers have been erected, removed, and replaced. The government decide to have a meeting with local businesses. The first session was postponed due to overly large attendance and much yelling. At the second session, the government decided to let people vent for awhile, then displayed a master plan which is still unreleased. At least there was a plan!

I have to imagine that someone is getting paid by the yard for concrete, as there is way more being poured than is needed. Sometime they pour it, set it, and tear it back out, all in the same week. In the end, we’ll have a brand-new reserved lane for bicycles, pedestrians, and the occasional gringo who will try to drive down it.

When the local government first extended the ciclopista through Ajijic by removing a parking lane, locals predicted doom and destruction. But as you see by the photos, people still parked on it, and businesses still survived. While a concrete barrier will cut down on that, there will be delivery spaces according to the government. And I have yet to see a concrete barrier at the ends of the cross streets, meaning drivers could still drive down the ciclopista and park on it, which in Mexico, means they will.

How will it all turn out? ¿Quien sabe? In Mexico, nothing seems to happen for ages, then suddenly everything changes. People adapt, normalcy returns, and the cycle resumes.

Going back to Ojo de Agua

You may recall my local rotary club, Chapala Sunrise Rotary, has an ongoing relationship with the village of Ojo de Agua to address their many needs. Much has happened over the past year, and the Rotary club went back out to Ojo de Agua to meet with the local government and people and take stock.

Affirming our past work with the locals in the village plaza

Over the past year, local and visiting (from NOB) Rotarians have regularly visited Ojo de Agua: to meet with the people and assess their needs, to plant fruit trees in yards, to tour and better understand the area, and to repaint the town plaza and refinish the roof of the gazebo. We did all these things with the active participation of the 300 or so people of Ojo de Agua, as well as our partners in Aipromades, a local multi-city health and environmental group.

Yet the big enchilada here is the need to replace the town’s water supply. Ojo de Agua means “spring” in español, and the town is unique in that while it lies on the shores of Lake Chapala, it has a natural spring which provides clean fresh water for the town. Or at least it did provide. Over the past five years, the spring has been producing less water over fewer months per year, leaving the townsfolk high and dry, dependent upon water trucks from the local government, buying garrafons from visiting vendors, or drinking coca cola. Coca cola, or coca as the locals call it, is the bane of Mexico, the drink of choice and a major contributor to obesity and childhood diabetes.

First the Chapala Sunrise Rotary Club helped the locals build a retention water tank near the village, hoping that storing water could help alleviate the occasional outages. Which it did, but it was clear the situation was deteriorating. At about the same time (a little over a year ago–yesterday in Mexico), the local government changed party control, and the new presidente (mayor) offered to work with the Rotarians for a more comprehensive solution.

That solution evolved into a full partnership: the Poncitlán government would drill a new well for the town, near the spring. Rotary would fund another retention tank and replace/extend the distribution pipe system. Aipromades coordinated with the villagers and provided clean water & health training. And the people of Ojo de Agua would agree to change habits and drink water.

The children preparing to demonstrate a lesson learned about clean hands; you can see the gazebo and freshly painted buildings in the background

Like any such effort, it all takes time. Poncitlan drilled a well and hit clean water, but the well hole didn’t hold up — it collapsed. So they are digging another well, better prepared to prevent another collapse. Rotary clubs from across the United States and Canada visited and sent monetary support: but we still haven’t secured the final approval and matching funds from Rotary International. As a federal bureaucrat of almost forty years, I have to say that the US federal bureaucracy has nothing on the Rotarians! Aipromades is completing the training for the vilagers, and the villagers are being patient (God bless ’em).

The architect, town delegado, and past rotary President (standing L to R) addressing the people

The locals were enthusiastic for the support. They are a marginalized community, geographically isolated from their local government and traditionally ignored. At the meeting, they implored the architect to have the only access, a dirt road, re-graded and a playground built: no sense holding back when el Hefe sends his rep to town! He made some phone calls, and promised to have the equipment on site soon, with the new well drilling to begin mañana (or next week).

All said, the kids had a great time demonstrating their knowledge of hand -washing and how germs spread, and the adults were satisfied our partnership continues to mature and progress. Patience is always a virtue; it’s also a necessity in Mexico and bureaucracy!

Doctors & Dentists

My wife and I bid a fond farewell to January, which saw us cooped up in the casa most of the month, not due to weather, but due to a variety of maladies. It started January 2nd, when I caught a very fast-spreading cold (sore throat, fever, lethargy) which put me down in bed for a week. Just a few days after I recovered, Judy encountered an ensalada contaminada–she literally “et something bad” as we used to say. Food poisoning lasted a good ten days and necessitated a few visits to the doctor/lab, some testing, and verged on a trip to the emergency room for treatment before she got better. And when she got better, I went in for a routine teeth cleaning. I mentioned some dental pain, and that led to two root canals and crowns. Here we sit in February, now returned to health. So what was it like, being sick and out in expat land?

For all the experiences, the costs were much less expensive, as I have noted before. For my over-the-counter (OTC) cold meds, we bought the same things we did in the States: Nyquil and Robitussin and the like, except generally at much less cost. If you’ve ever wondered why the same product is cheaper elsewhere, here’s the the secret. Most of the cost in any medicine is in the research: you need to recoup the cost of creating the medicine, and the cost of all the other medicines your company TRIED to make but didn’t work out. When you get to an approved, functioning medicine, generally the cost of production is low. So while you can set a profit margin of (let’s say) $5 USD on a medicine in the States, no one in a poorer nation will buy it at that markup. BUT, you can set a mark-up of 5 cents on it and sell it and still make money elsewhere. So that’s what they do. It works for all kinds of things beside medicine. As long as you cover your costs, you still make a profit.

Doctors are very approachable and easy to reach. Judy texted (WhatsApp) our doctor on Sunday evening when she had already been sick for three days without improvement. Our doctor responded quickly with a Monday noon appointment. She gave Judy a mild antibiotic and something to address the bowel symptoms (more on that later), but also a sample kit if we needed it later and promised a quick reaction if that didn’t do the trick. When it didn’t, she arranged (again, by text) another, stronger antibiotic. The doctor texted Judy daily to check on her improvement over the following days.

As I already knew, treatments really vary by nation. Here they try to go very light on the antibiotics (as our doctor did with Judy), but when it didn’t get quick improvement, the doctor went straight to ciprofloxacin, the nuclear option of antibiotics. While we use imodium in the States to battle diarrhea, our doctor suggested it was “too strong” and recommended Treda. Seems like Mexicans swear by it, and keep it handy when travelling. I had never heard of it. Turns out Treda is the brand name for a neomycin sulfate compound not used in the US (as far as I can tell). It’s an internal antiseptic used for bowel surgery, with a load of possible side effects. Yet it’s in every Mexican medicine cabinet. It worked for Judy, and was far less extreme than imodium.

In my limited experience, medical professionals here aren’t quite as used to explaining the why and how of what’s going on. I am used to a running dialogue about what they’re doing to me, what they expect to find, what they do find, and what it means. When I went for my teeth cleaning, the dentist told me my teeth looked excellent and she thought my mild tooth pain was probably due to a change in my bite causing two teeth to impact. She filed one down a touch and sent me on way way, with a reminder to come back if I felt any more pain. Two days later, the same teeth were more painful still, so I went back. A different dentist did a quick dental x-ray and told me that both teeth had serious decay under existing fillings. This tracked with what my American dentist had warned me, that someday those teeth, which he filled, would crack or decay and need more treatment, so I was prepared for it.

After some anesthetic, the dentist started drilling out the old fillings to see what she would find. As expected, one tooth probably needed a root canal, the other maybe just a crown. I scheduled a follow up for a day later with the endodontist, who worked on the better tooth but decided to do a root canal on it. He scheduled the other root canal for a week later. So I thought I would have two root canals and be done. But when I arrived in the morning the next week, I learned the endodontist had scheduled two afternoon sessions for crowns, too.

So three appointments in one day. But, at the end of the day, I had no tooth pain and two new crowned, root-canaled teeth. I wish they had been a little more communicative as they went along (all spoke perfect English), but the care and quality were still very good. Total cost for a cleaning, another visit to drill away the old fillings, then the two root canals and two crowns? $14000 MXP, or about $700 USD.

The technology still appears to me to be very advanced. The laboratory clinic sent us a detailed readout by e-mail within six hours. The dental x-rays were all the small hand-held kind with results on a display beside the chair, and saved to my records. The crown was 3D printed on site and installed the same day.

All things considered, pretty routine stuff, especially since we were out in expat land.