Mexico is open for . . .

well, anything you like. Business? yes. Tourism? Yes. Just because you can’t stand to be locked down in your house another day? Yes.

Wait, you say, isn’t the US-Mexican border closed to non-essential travel? Yes. The United States, Canada, and Mexico initiated this lockdown back in March, and extended it as recently as late August (text at the link). You can close the US-Mexican border for a few days, you can even close a specific border crossing for weeks. But, one can’t simply shut down the the US- Mexican border.

Why? It’s the most crossed border in the world. Europeans make much of the freedom of travel within the EU under the Schengen agreement, and yes, it’s great. But a million people a day cross the US-Mexico international border, not to mention world record amounts of commercial products. And it has stayed open. The announced restrictions exempted workers crossing the border and business/goods. And US citizens have always been allowed “to return home.” There have been verified problems for Canadians trying to drive home from Mexico, but otherwise the border still hums.

And, the restrictions mentioned above only applied to the land border. US tourists remain welcome in Mexico’s many resorts. So if you wish to fly or cruise (are any ships cruising?) to Mexico, it’s still there waiting. And it is one of the few places welcoming Americans these days!

Green is go for American travel: “pickens is mighty slim”

But should you travel now? That is a complicated question which involves your personal willingness to accept risk. How healthy are you? How vulnerable are you to the coronavirus? What comorbidities do you have? Can you effectively quarantine before/after travel and how vulnerable are your family/friends? Do you know what to do if you get sick while travelling? Only you can answer these questions. Personal and tourist travel is continuing today–even picking back up–along with travel-shaming (“how dare you endanger . . . “).

On the plus side, travel deals are pretty good. Mexico is friendly, welcoming, and familiar for the American tourist. Your dollars will greatly help workers in the tourism sector, who generally work for tips and have little savings and little help from the federal government. They will also assist Mexico’s ailing tourism industry, which is an essential part of the nation’s economy.

On the negative side, there is that whole Covid19 thingy. Resorts are going to great lengths to ensure sanitary conditions. Some attractions are closed, or less enjoyable. Your favorite buffet is probably not going to be there. You may get a tan line around a face mask. Is the pandemic better or worse in Mexico? Yes. Here is the most current data on new cases. Mexico has plateaued, but its case count is suspect due to limited testing. My best guess is it is about the same as the US.

I don’t make this recommendation lightly. I canceled a college reunion I was going to host in August here at Lake Chapala because at that time, it was unclear where the pandemic was headed and how the government in Mexico City would respond. That is no longer the case. I have travelled back and forth to the US recently and it was simple and safe; we will do so again soon. Given everything else going on, just realize getting away to Mexico remains an option, if you so choose. And no, I don’t get a cut from anybody!

“Watch your mouth, . . . “

I’ll wash it out with soap!”

I don’t recall ever hearing this threat from my parents (correct me if I’m wrong, Dad). But it was commonplace back when, what you’d call a meme today. And I think it’s a good self-admonition, due to the growth and increasing acceptance of polemic language. Polemic language degrades communication, demeans both the speaker and recipient, and generally poisons the atmosphere. You may infer that I don’t like it.

What, you say, is polemic language? Let’s consider a hypothetical example rather than a cold definition. Imagine you’re sitting in a bar and strike up a conversation with the person on the next stool. After a few (too many) drinks, you’re debating religion, and your drinking buddy says “God? Oh, I don’t believe in God.”

As a Christian, this is an opportunity to spread the Good News; there are so many ways the conversation could go! You might ask whether your friend EVER believed, or what do they believe now, or even were they familiar with the thinking of Friedrich Nietzsche (an atheist who hasn’t read Nietzsche is like a Christian who hasn’t read the Bible). But imagine the same situation, only this time your drinking buddy says “religion is just the opiate of the masses.” This phrase, which doubtless rings some bells, is a bit of Marxist drivel, and is polemic language. It marks the speaker as someone not interested in discourse, only domination. You can argue religion with an atheist influenced by Nietzsche, but not a Marxist.

What does polemic language do? It replaces thought with slogans, and not only slogans, but slogans designed to enforce an orthodoxy of belief. George Orwell’s 1984 captured the nature of polemic language in slogans like “War is Peace, freedom is slavery, and ignorance is strength.”

In today’s America, polemic language exists all along the political spectrum. On the right it is superficial and less well-developed, mostly revolving around invoking the terms “deep-state” and “swamp.” Even the latter term is borrowed, as it long predates the Trump administration, and was earlier invoked by Ronald Reagan to identify the cozy relationship between publicly antagonistic Washington politicians, who (along with their families and friends) seemed to thrive despite animosity or even the economic conditions of the country writ large. Progressives originated the term decades earlier as “drain the swamp of capitalism.” Since I previously remonstrated on the deep-state, let’s look at the other side.

Polemic language on the left is far more well-developed, primarily due to decades of work in academia. Theories of race, power, and sex developed into academic studies which generated an alternate language. And as any linguist will tell you, language in turn constrains thought. All this goes back to post-World War II academic debates over post-modernism: the notion that there are no moral certainties — or even truth–and that what we believe to be modern morals or systems are just the remnants of past power struggles. These debates matured into current theories of patriarchy, intersectionality, heteronormativity, anti-racism and the like. Click on the links if you’re unfamiliar, but be warned: like Alice, you may find yourself “through the looking glass.”

So what’s the problem with using such language? Don’t you (I) respect academic theory? Of course, I am a big fan of the theory of gravity, for example, because it has proven itself a useful way to look at how objects behave everywhere and always (except at the quantum level!). But these other theories are not proven, and in some cases are unprovable. Their polemic language blurs the discussion, and that is never good. Let’s take a recent example.

Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) opined on the statue of Father Damien in the Capitol building, tweeting this is “what patriarchy and white supremacist culture looks [sic] like.” The statue is one of two representing the state of Hawaii (the other is King Kamehameha). Now it is true Father Damien was a Belgian, a man, and a white one to boot. By the theories of patriarchy, colonization, and white supremacy, he is guilty as AOC charged.

Father Damien seems unconcerned about the controversy

Unfortunately for the theories, the Hawaiian people chose to put his statue there, because this white, Belgian, Catholic priest chose to come to minister to the Hawaiian lepers in their colony on Molokai. He lived among them, cared for them, caught their (then) incurable disease and died among them. To Hawaiians, he was more Hawaiian than Haole.

AOC later amended her complaint to say she objected to the fact that Hawaii has no female memorialized in Capitol statuary. Assuming this is what she originally meant, she is correct. But that is not what she said. She used polemic language that was inaccurate and unfortunate. Had she tweeted, rather, “why doesn’t Hawaii have Queen Lili’uokalani as one of its statues in DC?” she might have initiated an interesting debate.

Now, if I were a Hawaiian, I might thank the Representative for her interest in Hawaiian affairs, and point out her own great state of New York has two dead white males (Robert Livingston and George Clinton) as its statuary representatives, and suggest she should perhaps turn her attention to getting her own house in order, so to speak.

But I am not Hawaiian. And this is not about statues.

If you see famous people using polemic language, beware. Don’t use it. If you think there are not enough statues of women, say so. Or that police stop too many African-americans. Or that television doesn’t show enough same-sex relationships. Those are arguments to be made. Slipping into polemic language doesn’t help. It marks the speaker as uninterested in the truth. Or maybe just as uninteresting.

And it gives credence to academic theories of little weight.

The American Virus

I haven’t been writing much about the coronavirus or Covid19 lately, as there is not much new to say.

  • What about the upsurge in cases in the US? Predictable, and in fact predicted by all the relevant authorities. Remember that the lockdown was designed to flatten the curve, meaning everybody is eventually exposed, just not at the same time. It worked, but that didn’t mean there would not be a continuing series of local outbreaks as the virus continued its unrelenting spread.
  • No breakthrough on a treatment or vaccine? Plasma is the latest hope, but it is likely not a miracle treatment. And a vaccine will come in due time, if at all. Yes, a nation like Russia can rush to announce a vaccine, but that doesn’t make it so. The world record time for vaccine development (for mumps) was four years; we’ll break that if (big if) we find one for the coronavirus.
  • Immunity remains unproven but real. A recent report from Hong Kong apparently confirmed the first case of re-infection. So while we don’t understand the virus very well, the millions of infected and recovered and the highly infectious nature of the virus point to only one conclusion: there is sustained immunity.
  • Media continue to play the “which nation is doing better or worse” game. Partisan media only grab select stories and feed them like red meat to the gullible. The EU is currently trending worse, the US better, and their lines will probably soon cross. South Korea has another outbreak, as does New Zealand. Germany restarted schools and is stopping them as each new outbreak occurs. France is on the edge, again. It’s a pandemic people, without significant treatment or a vaccine. It will continue to spread, until everyone has had it or is vaccinated. Those are the only two outcomes.
The latest from the Financial Times

So really not much new here, despite all the breathless news coverage. After my recent visit to the States, I will go out on a limb and make one prediction. When the history of this event is written, historians will point out how uniquely suited this virus was to attack the United States. Now put down your tinfoil hats; I am making no conspiracy argument here, just an observation. Based on . . .

  • This virus leaves most healthy people unscathed, but ravages vulnerable populations. According to the best data, eighty percent of Americans who contract Covid19 will suffer no symptoms (forty percent) or flu-like (another forty percent) symptoms. The elderly and overweight and otherwise sickly are endangered; the healthy and young not so much. This strikes directly at America’s libertarian streak, meaning we were never going to keep people locked down or under quarantine or even wearing masks for very long. With predictable results.
  • America is a world leader in the comorbidities which lead to death from the coronavirus. Not to mention, our fragmented healthcare system meant those with the worst or no care–and no paid sick leave–were most likely to have to work, either to put food on the table, avoid being fired, or because they were essential to the rest.
  • As a nation, we are more likely to place our elderly or infirm in institutional settings (whether old-age homes, nursing homes, or continuing-care facilities). Yet the staff work at multiple locations for profit-seeking firms unwilling to spend on personal protective gear, meaning we built giant petri dishes of infection for the most vulnerable.
  • Our politics were already so poisoned that simple health matters became political red lines. Some people take pride in not wearing a mask, others try to excuse participation in large protests. Expert medical opinion is solicited or rejected based on how it comports with previous political positions. Early on, the virus hit blue states on both coasts, and you didn’t need to search hard to find people blaming it on their politics. When the virus moved to the red state heartland, it was just as easy to find the reverse. AND . . .
  • Our constitutional republic meant persuading states to behave in a coordinated fashion, which wasn’t going to happen as long as political leaders treated this as another red/blue state issue. Democratic nominee Joe Biden just said if he is President and the virus breaks out again, he will “shut the country down.” Amazingly, the press didn’t ask how he would do that or with what authority. Were that it was so easy. BUT . . .
  • President Trump bears special responsibility for the debacle that is national messaging during this crisis. One role for the President in such events is to be reassuring, calm, consistent, and authoritative. He was 0 for 4 in that regard.

Despite good messaging, a quick response, and bipartisan support, the US experienced the greatest number of deaths (worldwide) during the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic. We didn’t do very well during the 1918 Spanish flu, either. Maybe some things never change. We appear to be somewhat more vulnerable-as a society and polity–than other nations. And the coronavirus hit the sweet spot.

An Analytic Test

Back when I was a supervisor of analysts (last millennium, when dinosaurs roamed the National Mall), I had a weathered, paper copy of a Washington Post article in my desk drawer. The article was a summary of data developed about income percentiles in America (who makes how much, from the 1990s). There was little dispute about the data itself, and the article appeared with little fanfare and quickly passed into oblivion except for my faded copy. Sometimes when I wanted to test a potential (or aspiring) analyst, I would pass them the chart and ask them what were the strongest analytic judgments they could draw from it. I made it clear “just use this data, don’t try to add to it or fight it.”

The Brookings Institute has kindly updated that data (here), and the Washington Post covered it again. Here’s the key chart:

If you want to go back to the commentary or data, please do so, but go ahead and take this test (mentally): what judgments can you draw from this data? Again, don’t fight it; the answer is staring at you!

Middling analysts would focus on the point that the middle class is disappearing. Well, the median segment did drop from 47% down to 36%. Yet all three “middle class” segments went from 84% to 85%. Some analysts wanted to argue inequality was growing since the rich segment rose from 0% to 2%; while inequality may be growing (Brookings suggests it is), it is not evident from just this chart. The lowest two segments fell from 47% down to 29%. The bottom three fell from 94% to 65%. The best analysts honed in on the most dramatic change in any single group: the 450% rise in the upper middle class, from 6% up to 33%. So the most telling analytic line is: more Americans moved from the poor, lower, or middle class into the upper middle class.

The data can tell no other story. Why? Simply put, for every person who fell from a higher category, more than one person had to rise, in order for the numbers to hold up.

Three additional points. First, this data is longitudinal, that is, it covers the same people over an extended period of time. This eliminates the possibility the changes in outcome resulted from different people in the study at different times. Second, it does not include government transfers such as welfare, family assistance, etc., so it underreports the actual level of income for the poorest segment. Also, other charts displaying the data in the same study point out that the number of people moving from one income group to another increased (both up and down), meaning these groups are not static. While movement down the income chart grew more, movement up by more than one level also increased. Which is a long-winded way of saying there is still considerable movement between the income groups, and more variability with smaller numbers of big winners.

This does not mean there are not people who have suffered economically over this same time period: by sex, race, ethnicity, undereducation, technology change, and a myriad other reasons. But for every such case, the overall data still improved, which is quite remarkable. Brookings made much of the loss of the middle/middle class, the growth (as they see it) in inequality, and the increased number of people moving “down” the spectrum. But the overall movement into the upper middle class is just as telling. And that’s a little good news.

Mailing it in

There is one thing that MAGA-hat wearers, Never Trumpers, and the Progressive resistance agree upon: everything–and I mean EVERYTHING– revolves around President Trump. Nothing better represents this delusional state of affairs than the debate over mail-in voting. To wit:

Supporters of the President are sounding the alarm that rampant fraud will accompany mail-in voting. President Trump himself has stated he opposes liberalizing mail-in voting because he believes it will only favor the Democratic Party; some Progressives apparently agree and have seized upon the pandemic quarantine as a reason to support only mail-in voting. For the record, there is no data that mail-in voting favors either party, and little evidence of widespread mail-in voting fraud. Perhaps your own view about mail-in voting is driven by these same factors. Please permit me to explain why it’s wrong to do so.

First, mail-in voting is a necessity: not everyone can make it to a polling place on election day. As an expat, mail-in voting is the only way I can participate. However, mail-in voting is an exception, not the norm. Why? While all voting methods are vulnerable to fraud, mail-in voting is more vulnerable (I’ll explain why below). Thus when the number of mail-in voters is small (as an exception), the risk of fraud changing the election results is also small, so mail-in voting poses an acceptable risk.

Second, mail-in voting poses a vulnerability even if there is no evidence of fraud. Several states use only mail-in voting, and cite their success as proof there is no issue here. However, who is interested in interfering in the state elections of Washington, Oregon, or Colorado (places relying on mail-in voting)? There are several nations (e.g., Russia and China) capable of and interested in influencing, undermining, or corrupting US federal elections. Moving to large-scale, mail-in voting changes the calculus for such nations and thus the vulnerability becomes a real threat.

Third, while the 2020 election is a federal one, everyone should know that it is run as fifty distinct state elections, with different rules in each case. Asking states to make sudden changes within months of an election, while their employees are furloughed or working from home, is a recipe for disaster, especially when both political parties are primed to cry “foul” at any suspicious instance. Wisconsin conducted an in-person election in the teeth of the pandemic and had outrageous, unfounded claims of vote tampering by both sides. States would find it difficult to make big changes now, and errors they make would only compound the confusion.

Fourth, massive mail-in voting results in a much greater time lag between election day and when the results are announced. In some cases in the past, mail-in votes weren’t even counted if their total was less than the difference between candidates established by in-person voting (i.e., the outcome could not change). If the mail-in vote total is large, all must be counted, and each mail-in vote requires additional scrutiny and verification.

Fifth, that verification process is also a point of dispute. Anyone old enough to remember the “hanging-chads” debacle in Florida in 2000 knows that the authentication of votes is subjective. Imagine the public debates, protests and the like as days lead into weeks after the election without a final result (and with constant leaks and charges of corruption)!

Sixth, current security for mail-in voting is adequate for optional, small-scale use, but not for widespread use. Every state is different, but let me use my voting experience in Ohio as a example. I am currently registered to vote there, a process that required only a government ID and a banking document with an Ohio address. I mailed in my federal postcard application for a ballot: it contained nothing more than part of my social security number and signature. I opted for an e-mail ballot, which I will fill out and e-mail back to Ohio with my signature. So the security involved is (1) my social security number, (2) my signature, (3) any government issued ID, and (4) some paper documents with my Ohio address. Let’s look at those in turn:

  • Throw out number four (documents with an address), as any nitwit could have forged and printed those out.
  • Social security numbers were commonly (and wrongly) used for identification, so the many data breaches out there mean it is likely your SSN has been compromised.
  • Signatures? More difficult to find, but easy to copy/forge once found.
  • Government ID? An American passport is incredibly secure, but your state driver’s license not so much. Yet both count.

The bottom line here is it’s not easy for you to pretend to be me and vote in Ohio, but it’s also not impossible. The real problem is not you or me, but . . .

Russia. Seventh, what may be difficult for you is easy for Russia. Or China. Or even North Korea. Remember when the Chinese hacked the US Office of Personnel Management database and made off with the Personal Identifying Information of hundreds of thousands of federal employees? What about the routine credit card data breaches; all that data is available on the dark web for pennies. When Russia was hacking into state voting systems before the 2016 election, they often accessed voter registration rolls. Those could not change votes, but they would provide the Russians with the means to affect future elections. All a foreign actor needs to do is submit the same federal postcard I used and have the absentee ballot sent to a different e-mail or physical address. Whether they may or may not have the ability to forge a signature, they could submit a vote, meaning some voters showing up at the polls would be told they had already voted, and some mail-in voters would have two ballots submitted. All this could be sorted out in time, but at what cost to the credibility of the election process?

Finally, remember that the motivation for a foreign actor need not be changing votes. As the Intelligence Community pointed out in the 2016 report on Russian interference, Russia sought to “undermine public faith in the US democratic process.” The partisan divide in the United States has made this Russian operation one of the highest pay-off influence operations in history. Intelligence officers will be studying that one for decades. And the last straw would be a drawn out, contested, post-election series of public political and legal battles as states deal with a backlog of mail-in votes.

And I won’t even go into the challenge to the US Postal Service. I know you will breathlessly await my review of the USPS in a future blog post (if you’re still in quarantine and desperately bored).

What about the risk of contracting the coronavirus while voting in-person? This is indeed a quandry. I support allowing those who are at risk (e.g., aged, suffering comorbidities, immunocompromised) to get a doctor’s note and vote by mail. But for the vast majority of voters, there is nothing especially dangerous about in-person voting, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci. People gather and stand in lines for all kinds of reasons during the quarantine. And we make some people (grocery store employees, truck drivers) work despite the dangers because what they do is essential. So is voting.

I continue to support mail-in voting, as an exception, not the norm. I contend it could be expanded and secured, but not quickly or painlessly. Voting is so important, and in-person voting has many advantages in terms of preventing fraud. Please consider this issue with the seriousness it deserves, not as yet another simple Trump-driven dynamic.

Scenes from America

Travelling between visits to my ninety-one year old Dad, brother and sister, and daughters/sons-in-law/grandchildren. Some things I have noticed along the way, which was Chicago to South Bend to Cincinnati to Baltimore and return:

  • Pandemic restrictions and compliance are everywhere different and distinct. In South Bend, it seems like everyone was wearing masks, except for one family we saw in the Mall. Let’s set the stage. When you enter through the (limited) entrances, you see a sign indicating masks are mandatory, as is disinfecting your hands at a dispensary station. Signs direct you to keep six feet social distancing, and instructions on the floor tell you that foot traffic inside the mall is “walk to the right” (like driving) to avoid contact. We’re coming out of a store, and directly in front of us is a family: slightly chubby, middle-aged father and mother with likewise adolescent, all sans masks and with big grins on their faces. They are walking the “wrong way” and moving directly toward other shoppers, who are scattering away from and around them. I realize I’m making huge assumptions here, but the look on the Dad’s face was “go ahead, say something.” We walked past and ignored them. What’s the point?
  • At a roadside Wendy’s in southern Ohio, the travellers were all wearing masks, while the locals were all walking in without them. Everyone had to eat out in the parking lot, though.
  • All of this comes as a result of the combination of American individualism and federalism We all grew up in States. Taxes were different, health care was different, schooling was different, age of consent was different, age to consume alcohol was different. Granted, the federal response to Covid19 has been disjointed, but no one should be surprised about the differences between states, if they understand the term “United States of America.” Within those parameters, Americans remain contrarians, oftentimes doing the opposite of what they are asked or required by even local government. That said, we all wore masks and maintained social distance. Doing as you please is license; liberty is freely choosing to do the right thing.
  • Places which are under federal control, like airports, have uniform rules: everyone has masks on all the time. This tells me the non-compliance is symbolic: people flaunt their views where they can, but yield whenever or wherever they know the consequences are serious. Anybody feels tough enough to bully the WalMart greeter, but TSA, not so much.
  • The political environment really is as bad as I imagined. In my family, we argue (loudly and openly) about everything. I found family members quietly and delicately engaging me about issues before determining what views they could/could not express. Most had stories of friends lost, jobs endangered, or public encounters which border on discomfort. Seems like everybody is walking around on eggshells, with a vocal minority (at both ends of the spectrum) waiting to scream at any infraction. Land of the free home of the reticent.
  • Nothing will be normal in the States until in-person school resumes. With all the two working-parent (or single-parent) families, work can’t resume until in-person school resumes. In the jurisdictions I visited, the local teachers’ unions were vigorously and publicly lobbying against in-person school and for online curricula, which has been perfunctory at best. Parents with means are arranging private education for their children. Teachers’ unions were calling out parents (and teachers!) for making private agreements for tutoring. Many parents will be stuck “homeschooling,” an oxymoron in this case. Homeschooling is a choice which requires great preparation and sacrifice; parents are now forced to do it with neither the vocation nor the support. This, not a vaccine, may prove to be the long pole in the tent to recovery.
  • Touchless delivery has gone to a new level. We ordered in Chinese food one night. About forty minutes later, I asked Judy where the order was. She paused to check her smartphone and said “at the door.” Seems they dropped the order at the door (no knock, no doorbell), texted her, and left.
  • Speaking of ethnic food, “authentic Mexican” food in America still isn’t. This was not a surprise. Perhaps somewhere near the border, or in some ethnic enclave in a bg city, one can find authentic Mexican cuisine. Tried it twice, in different areas. The workers were Mexican, and we enjoyed practicing our Spanish, but the food was still the high carb, meat- and sauce-heavy Tex-Mex version of Mexican cuisine available anywhere in the States.
  • We got to attend in-person Mass twice, which was a treat. In South Bend, the pews were roped off, no singing, no sign-of-peace, masks on except for the Eucharist. Near Baltimore, Mass was in the parking lot in tailgate chairs, under a hot, humid sun. Made me grateful for whoever invented the kneeler, as warm asphalt is tough on new jeans and old knees!
  • I noticed non-grocery stores had stocking issues. A sporting goods chain we visited had several aisles with little or no merchandise, normally a no-no in retail. I talked to a store employee who was loading home weight sets into cars. He told me they sold all they had, including the floor models, and people keep calling for more. Remember when everyone seemed to have a weight set which never got used and went for bargain prices at a garage sale? Times have changed.
  • Traffic on interstate highways was down, but not gone. Somehow Washington DC still managed to have traffic jams. Perhaps they were left over from before the pandemic?
  • On the way back to Mexico, we had to traverse BWI Marshall and Chicago O’Hare airports. Neither was impressive. At BWI, they had no TSA pre-Check lines open during the morning flight rush. But, we were in luck, as the long lines prompted TSA to open new lanes for the security search. But, the scanner announced that each and every electronic device had to be put into a separate bin. And we had eight of them, some of which were packed because we had pre-Check. Grrrrr. At O’Hare, there was also no pre-Check, but the first TSA checkpoint gave us a card which stated we were pre-Check. But we still had to go through the same security screen. But this time devices were allowed altogether. And we were approached by a homeless man begging in the security area. What? It’s no wonder why people think airport security is just theater.
  • Our literal last step in America was a doozy. Awaiting our AeroMexico flight to Guadalajara from Chicago, we listened to all the announcements, first in Spanish and then English. It was good to get back into practice. As we went down the jetway to board, we both said “buenas tardes” to the woman operating the console for the jetway. “I speak English.” she replied coldly. “We speak Spanish”, we responded with smiles. Guess we were guilty of microaggression. Or was it cultural appropriation? Anyway, as we stepped aboard, the flight attendant gave us a hearty “ยกBienvenidos!”

What Matters? Part II

One might assume (based on my criticism of BLM, “defund the police,” “the talk,” and arguing whether data proves racial disparities in policing) that I don’t think race matters in the States. One would be wrong. I have always stated racism is evil and evident across the globe yesterday, today, and sadly tomorrow. Which does not counsel passivity, but cold realism in approaching solutions. Solutions will never be total, only partial, and we must focus on continuous progress to avoid backsliding. But soldier on, we must.

If you have ever met a real racist–not someone just #hashtagged as one–you know that there is little one can do to change his mind. The repentant racist is a rare breed: not exactly extinct, but always on the endangered list. One can, however, conform a racist’s behavior. Even a committed racist gets tired of constantly having to defend himself from public scorn. Thus society made public use of the n-word so offensive it changed from acceptable (among many) to unacceptable (excepting rappers). What a racist mutters under his breath in his own home? Another story.

This is a work everyone can undertake: identifying the small acts of racism that occur everyday (ask any person of color) and stand against them. No need to be boorish: simply pointing them out as unacceptable will do. This is solidarity in action, and we all need to spend time thinking about how we enact it. Whom security guards follow in stores, when people assume skin-color automatically denotes wealth, why some people seem suspicious in some neighborhoods: examples where we need to check our personal biases and those around us. But this is no small thing. We can never ask people of color to stop thinking constantly about race if they are constantly reminded of it!

So much for atmospherics; what about policies?

You’re probably unsurprised I oppose reparations. If the sums were small and symbolic, I could probably be convinced, but then why bother? If you are in favor of the larger amounts being considered, I ask you to also consider the data on what happens when average people receive a financial windfall. It rarely turns out well. Not to mention, reparations involve all kinds of messy moral questions. Who is black, and how black does one need to be? This is the kind of racist genotyping the Confederacy engaged in! Why should the sons of Vietnamese refugees, the granddaughters of Irish indentured servants, or the great-grandchildren of Union soldiers killed at Gettysburg pay?

Racially-tinged policies are always a double-edged sword. Where there is a clear and proven case of racial discrimination, it may be just (and constitutional) overtly to consider race in the solution. Thus if a college or institution has a track-record of excluding a race, they may make a conscious choice to hire or promote people of that race for a time. But there is always a cost. As people of color so chosen will tell you, they suffer a stigma that they did not merit selection, but for the color of their skin.

Thus I strongly adhere to the words of Chief Justice John Roberts, who said “The way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.” I mention this to note that the policies I propose are never tied to race directly, and thus avoid the stigma of racialist policies. Still, these policies would directly affect black Americans, the subject of our recent strife. I propose two policies. The local policy could be implemented immediately and make an immediate difference. The national one is long-term, designed to address historic imbalances.

At the local level:

It is amusing that big city mayors (almost always Democrats and often Progressives, to boot) rail on about segregation while maintaining the racist zoning policies that created that condition. There is a reason there are no affordable housing options in Georgetown, DC: zoning regulations. Before you finish reading this paragraph, Mayor Muriel Bowser could propose and the DC Council could approve the construction of small, tasteful, affordable family-housing in Georgetown. Mutatis mutandis, Chicago, New York and hipster Seattle.

You don’t need a legend to see what’s wrong with this picture.

Rather than trying to remake DC Ward 8 (the poorest, most crime-ridden section of the District), the local government could start integrating wealthy neighborhoods by (1) allowing affordable housing to be built there, (2) subsidizing the development and the movement of people to those areas, and (3) where necessary, using the powers of eminent domain (at fair market price, naturally) to obtain land. Why don’t they do it? Politically powerful and wealthy benefactors oppose it: NIMBYism at its racially-tinged finest. Despite decades of Democratic governance, most of America’s largest cities are more segregated than they were in the 1960s!

Is this important? Growing data sources show that one’s zip code at birth/childhood is a better predictor of health, wealth, and success than any other factor! We’ve tried for several generations a weird experiment in separate-but-equal: keeping poor people–mostly minorities–segregated but pouring money into schools, policing, and social services, with little to show for it (according to the protestors in the streets). Good neighborhoods already have less crime, better schools, more grocery stores and parks and enrichment activities. Integrating appropriate numbers of the poorer into such locations would involve little overall change to the neighborhood while reaping huge rewards. But don’t hold your breath.

At the national level:

Much is made of the relative distribution of wealth in America, including the racial imbalances. While some of the more exaggerated claims have been called into question, America has greater wealth imbalance than most advanced industrialized nations (and thus has it ever been, by the way). Furthermore, the net worth of a white family ($170,000) was almost ten times that of black family. Even accounting for the fact that the median white family was two parents with some college, while the median black family was a single mother with a high school education, this is astounding.

While I believe the breakdown in the family–specifically the two parent, nuclear family of yore–is the culprit, I would suggest the federal government focus its efforts on the children. Politicians who propose “baby bonds” are on the right track. Paid by the federal government to children when they reach adulthood, these transfer payments would help reduce the wealth imbalance at the critical juncture when youth either go to college or join the workforce (i.e., the exact time when some capital makes a huge difference).

The bonds should not be based on race but the financial status of the parent/s at birth: if below a certain cut-off, the federal government starts investing US savings bonds in a numbered account for that child, accessible somewhere between their eighteenth and twenty-first birthdays, payable only to the child (not his parents, nor his beneficiaries). The amount is open to debate, but should certainly cover a degree at community college. The money should be paid against receipts for things like tuition, vocational training, new job expenses or starting a business: not simply disbursed to be spent on tattoos or avocado toast (or a tattoo of avocado toast, even). Such a program has predictable costs (not all immediate) and could even be prorated to cover (grandfather, so to speak) some children already born.

Both of these programs are expensive, but we’ve spent trillions getting nowhere, apparently. Neither program guarantees success: for example, there is some evidence that racial segregation in housing is also a result of conscious choices by racial minorities. Both policies tackle root causes (lack of opportunity) while avoiding racially-associated pitfalls. These programs benefit from the fact they acknowledge the federal-state structure inherent to our system of government. They are eminently “do-able.”

Let me end where I began. Policies are all well and good, but remember, despite equal opportunity there will always be unequal outcomes. What we should strive for is the day when–even at first glance–we judge the other ‘by the content of his character, not by the color of his skin.’ This is an unending task (in this world), but one which requires no political leadership or legal change, just personal commitment. Let us begin.

What matters? Part I

Black lives? Blue lives? All lives? So many slogans, so little effort to understand and address issues. When the shouting starts, the thinking usually stops. Such is the level of discourse in modern day America, or at least in the social media-driven, twitterized version of America.

“All lives matter” is a truism not worth repeating: water remains wet; sorry, but no film at eleven. “Blue lives matter” is a riposte: if you didn’t say it before you heard the original, you’re just being provocative now. But “Black Lives Matter” is all about, um, well . . . now, visit their website and tell me. Ending “state sanctioned violence”? “Disrupting the Western-prescribed nuclear family”? “Dismantling cisgender privilege”? If you wish to chant it, there’s quite a chorus of beliefs associated with it!

Words used to matter, but not so much anymore. Like Humpty-Dumpty, people have taken to insisting “words mean exactly what I say they mean!” So we now have the slogan “Defund the Police” which is instantly followed by the comment that is doesn’t really mean “defund the police.” If only words were the problem; actions speak louder.

There is a reasonable case to be made that symbols of white racial dominance (e.g., Confederate statues) help create an environment propagating racial discrimination. This is a nuanced argument that doesn’t suggest eliminating these symbols fixes everything, but it helps. Such an argument requires–nay demands–a deep understanding of the history involved and a willingness to confront that history as it was, alongside the humble realization that the past happened under different standards.

For example, many Confederate monuments were erected in support of the “Lost Cause” mythology as a reminder of continued white dominance of Southern blacks. Yet the naming of US Army bases after Confederate military leaders happened as a result of a Congressional compromise to encourage southern states to support the US Army. The military reintegration of the former Confederate States into the Union is an amazing case study in success. It began with Lincoln’s commitment, to wit

With malice toward none; with charity for all; with firmness in the right, as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in; to bind up the nation’s wounds; to care for him who shall have borne the battle, and for his widow, and his orphan

Abraham Lincoln’s Second Inaugural Address

The healing continued with General US Grant’s order for his soldiers to refrain from cheering as General Robert E. Lee left Appomattox Court House in defeat: “The Confederates were now our countrymen, and we did not want to exult over their downfall.” When Confederate General John Brown Gordon led his men to surrender their arms in a formal ceremony days later, Union General Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain called the Grand Army of the Potomac to attention and rendered a salute, to which Gordon responded: honor facing honor. Slightly more than thirty years after the nation’s bloodiest war, a healed United States Army was ready for combat once again.

And yet, and yet, all this honor and healing came at the cost of the Jim Crow South. History is messy that way.

That is a nuanced, historically-informed conversation. We are not having that discussion. We have mobs tearing things down, burning things, and attacking those who disagree with them. How many Americans of any color knew who Braxton Bragg was? I did, but I’m a civil war geek; but seriously, when so little history is taught, how can such a name retain power?

Argument swirls around the symbolic meaning of the Emancipation Statue in Washington, DC, funded by freed slaves, especially the symbolism of a slave kneeling before Abraham Lincoln.

It happened . . . deal with it

Most of those debating the statue don’t even know that when Lincoln secretly visited the just-captured Confederate Capital of Richmond, Virgina, (days before his assassination), word spread of the Great Emancipator’s arrival, and real slaves really knelt before him, calling him “Father Abraham” and “the messiah” and trying to touch his shoes! Today we have poorly-schooled protestors arguing about the symbolism of a statue of something . . . that . . . really . . . happened. Apparently, wokesters today know better than the freed slaves who paid for the monument.

Surely the nation could do without Confederate “Lost Cause” memorabilia; if that is important to you, make the case (I’ll probably agree with you). But make sure you know the history first. And if we are going to decide Washington or Lincoln isn’t sufficiently “woke,” we better be prepared to go where the history leads. Off the top of my head? Elihu Yale was a slave-trader; Leland Stanford exploited Chinese laborers for his railroad while calling them an “inferior race.” Only yesterday (in historical terms) FDR herded Japanese-Americans into camps. I await the universities renaming, and of course the removal of the FDR memorial. Bye-Bye Rhodes Scholars!

Better for all concerned if our youth learn some history before deciding to judge it. Reminds me of a great Indiana Jones’ movie quote:

“Chanting mobs should try learning history before tearing it down.”

Names change and statues go up and come down. Real problems remain. In Part II, I invite you to consider what America needs to do when it stops shouting and starts thinking again.

The Talk

I started writing this piece a while back, then put it on the shelf “to cool.” As I suspected, the media would give me another chance to engage, and they just did. There’s a New York Times article entitled “Black Behind the Wheel” (link). Here’s an excerpt that interested me, dealing with when the driver, a black man, was pulled over many years ago in rural Arkansas:

I heard the shrill siren of a patrol car, and saw flashing lights in my rearview mirror. I cut off my music, and pulled to the side of the highway. A white patrolman, hands on his holster, moved toward my vehicle. . . . I was petrified. When the patrolman asked for my license and registration, and where I was going, I channeled my elders. I kept my hands visible and was performatively polite, even reverential. This routine always fills me with self-contempt, but here, on this lonely highway, it seemed to be working. The policeman disappeared into his patrol car, and left me waiting and waiting. Eventually, he returned and without a word, handed me my I.D. and walked off. I sat there for a few moments, shaken. I lived. But a part of me died that day.

Ron Stodghill, “Black Behind the Wheel”

The writer’s reference that he “channeled his elders” calls to mind “The talk.” Perhaps you’re already familiar: “The talk” is a discussion black parents have with their children, explaining how to behave when the police inevitably confront them, just for being black in America. The talk may be prefaced with a lengthy discussion of violence perpetrated against innocent victims, or the inherent racism of American society in general or police forces in particular, but it always ends in a series of rules: here’s how to behave to avoid becoming the next statistic.

The premise of the talk is that very bad things can happen to you for almost no reason, if you’re black. The point of the talk is to provide some rules for how to behave with cops; if you follow these rules, you may avoid providing any reason for police misbehavior. To that point, it all makes sense to me. What confounds me is: I had it. Not just any talk, not a vague discussion, but “the talk.”

My Dad gave me the talk when I was a teenager, and we were the whitest of white-bread families living in a quintessential small town in the middle of middle America. My Dad was a career State Police Officer: more than thirty years as a patrolman, detective and senior leader. He wanted to pass on to me exactly what the police were thinking, what they are trained to do, and how to respond. It went something like this:

For the patrol officer, there is no such thing as a routine stop. When a police officer pulls a vehicle over or stops someone on the street, they do so for a reason, and it is not to complement them on their sartorial style. Since it almost always involves some negative outcome (a fine, an arrest, or just an ass-chewing), there is always the possibility of the recipient reacting badly. If the police officer forgets this, his next stop may be his last.

The officer is not on a hair trigger. He just realizes he is ruining your day, your week, or maybe even your whole life. He takes no joy in this, but it is his job. He is used to hearing excuses, threats, crying, pleading, swearing; he doesn’t like it, but it is nothing new. Your stop or interaction is unique and important to you; to him, it’s one of ten he will have during the shift, and they all go down mostly the same. Every day. For a career.

The officer must quickly make a judgment about you as the person being apprehended. In the officer’s world, there are two types: “regular people” who are generally remorseful and compliant, and “jerks” who want to confront, resist, fight, or flee. If there was ever a time when first impressions are important, this is it. How the interaction goes down generally depends on in which of these categories the officer places you.

Because of the inherent uncertainty of the interaction, the first rule of police interactions is to establish and maintain control of the situation. This means the officer is in charge, and the other person is under the officer’s control, responding to the officer’s commands. Nothing else happens until the officer establishes control, and if he loses control, nothing else happens until he re-establishes control. Notice that there is no accounting for the views of the individual: no debate, no discussion, no protest. Control must be established and maintained. The officer will give you a series of commands based on his training, view of the situation, and what he suspects has happened. He expects you to comply, even if the commands make no sense to you.

I listened to my dad’s talk and took it to heart. As a practical example, back in college days, a buddy and I went out joy-riding on the interstate in upstate New York. He gunned his muscle car up to almost one hundred miles-per-hour as we flew down the open road, until we heard the telltale wail of a siren catching up from behind us. As we pulled over, we both had a good laugh until the officer used his loudspeaker to order the driver to turn off the engine, drop the keys out of the window, exit the car with his hands behind his head, and kneel next the car door. I was still laughing until the officer ordered the passenger–me–to do the same. Excessive, no? When it was all said and done, the officer explained that a similar car had been used as a getaway vehicle in an armed robbery that morning, so we were initially given the full “fleeing felon” treatment . . . but only a fat speeding ticket in the end.

When I have been stopped for speeding, I turn off the radio (I never access a phone in a car), and wait with the window down, my hands at ten-and-two on the steering wheel. I only respond to the officer, never initiate or extend my remarks. End with “sir” or “officer.” Make no excuses. Answer only what is asked. Be completely honest. I make no move without first explaining what I intend to do, and then asking the officer for permission. I make it clear to the officer by my words and actions that he or she is in complete control.

How has that worked for me? Pretty damn well. I have a penchant for exceeding the posted speed, at least on highways (not where pedestrians are present). In over forty years of driving, I have received exactly one ticket from an officer (I don’t count a couple speed camera tickets, as they are just a tax for driving fast). I got that one for doing twenty-five in a fifteen mph zone of desert highway at the entrance to Fort Huachuca, Arizona in 1983.

Oh, I’ve been pulled over many, many times for speeding. The worst case? Seventy-five in a forty mph stretch of I-395 in downtown DC about twenty years ago, during morning rush hour. That officer was leaving morning PT at his station and couldn’t believe how I blew past him as he entered the highway on-ramp. He was sweaty, angry, and ready to chew me out. When he asked for license and registration, I explained the former was in the inside pocket in my suit coat, the latter in the visor above my head, and could I please reach for each in order? When he asked how fast I was going, I said “at least seventy” and he corrected me to “seventy-five.” He asked if I knew what he could do because of my excessive speed and I replied he could have me incarcerated overnight for going more than twenty-five mph over the limit (it pays to know local laws if you intend to break them). He asked, with several colorful adjectives and adverbs, whether I was late for work (“no, sir”) and what could possibly justify going that speed (“nothing, sir”). So why was I speeding, he demanded? I explained that I had been stuck in traffic on the 14th Street bridge, and when the traffic cleared I just gunned it on the briefly open road. No good reason, just an explanation. Our calm exchange helped him regain his composure, and after giving me a good butt-chewing, he left me with a verbal warning and the admonition that if he ever caught me speeding again, it would include a visit to a station.

This was not a one time thing. Every time I have been pulled over (save the Military Policeman in the desert), I have received nothing more than warning. As a teenager, I even talked my way out of a “failure to stop” at a stop sign by calmly explaining that I had stopped, but the officer could only see my vehicle after I proceeded through the intersection. It helped that there were huge snow piles on either side of the street, and that I had completely stopped.

Now I am not advocating using these rules to avoid due punishment. I am simply arguing that the rules embodied in the talk work. Many police interactions today are filmed by bystanders or body-cams. And in so many of the cases, the suspect flees, or argues, or resists, or swears, or spits, or refuses to comply. Apparently the message from “the talk” about the rules is not getting through. Check out this Washington Post story, which makes much of a traffic stop for running a stop sign. The embedded video is seven and a half minutes long, but it includes nearly everything someone can do wrong. Luckily, it ends with a simple arrest, not a homicide-by-cop. But if you google so many of the more famous incidents which are heralded as exemplars of police brutality or racism, they inevitably begin with the individual not behaving according to the rules of “the talk.” Mr. Garner. Ms. Bland. Mr. Brown. Apparently even Mr. Floyd. And the list goes on.

Let’s be clear: nothing excuses kneeling on a man’s neck for almost nine minutes. I’m not arguing here about the justice or injustice of these cases: I’m arguing about “the talk.” I hear that so many people are giving “the talk,” but I wonder about that because I am not seeing much evidence anyone is listening. I doubt folks are listening because their actions don’t correspond to the rules of “the talk.”

I remain perplexed why the writer in the Times article felt self-contempt for behaving the same way I was taught to behave. More confounding, why he wrote “a part of me died that day” when his behaving according to the rules of “the talk” worked? I want to suggest “the talk” is important, and that behaving by its rules is neither contemptible nor demeaning: it just works. for everyone.

That’s a talk worth having, and one to which more people need to listen.

Payin’ bills

Way back in January, we decided to let our property manager go and take responsibility for our casa on our own. It’s gone pretty well, as we’ve made arrangements for all the usual things (handyman, water softener and filter maintenance, plumber, gardener, house cleaning, etc.) without too much effort. Yes, we had to learn which bills could be paid online, which had to be paid in person, and where to pay them. Some can be paid with a US credit card online, others only with a Mexican credit card. As I mentioned before here, some have discounts if paid early, others have a penalty for late payment. Most allow you some grace period, and as far as I can tell, few are exacting about the amount. If you pay a little more or less than the bill, it just gets rolled over to the next payment (government bills and the phone service being exceptions).

We were pretty much set for the year by March, when the quarantine and shut down hit. The only exception was our car registration. I was going to go the last week in March, but I had a stomach ache and decided to wait, and then: boom goes the coronavirus. And I totally forgot about the car.

Until last week, when I saw a notice in the local English language paper that the Jalisco government was extending (through July) the grace period before fines went into effect for auto registration renewal. So I got after it.

I had been warned about the long lines at this office. My first trip to it was in the early afternoon, and sure enough, I drove past to see lines out in the street and just kept going. That was last week, the beginning of the month, so perhaps more people were going to get it out of the way. I decided to get up early (when I say early, I mean expat retiree/Mexico time early) and hit the office when it opens at 8:30 am, when the lines should be more manageable.

Degollado 306. The only person you see is cleaning the glass doors!

That is, if there were lines. I arrived at 8:35 with not a soul in sight. Made my way in to the counters, where two clerks were handling two customers. Just as I sat down in the waiting chairs (thoughtfully socially distanced), the clerk beckoned. I walked up, performed in flawless (and rehearsed) subjunctive Spanish my desire to pay my auto registration renewal and handled over the expired registration card. The clerk said gracias and started typing my info into his machine, hit “enter” and the printer spat out my documentation. I paid my 702 MXP bill (a little less than $35 USD, including a small mandatory-voluntary donation to the Mexican Red Cross) and was on my way in under one minute.

Boring, yes? But a little piece of normalcy, too. It was nice to avoid the lines, better still to do something routine in a routine manner . . . perhaps with the exception I was masked. It made me think: when people sometime in the future see pictures of people wearing masks, they’ll (probably) immediately associate it with 2020, a tell of from what era the picture was taken. Just an odd thought at the end of oddly routine day!