This didn’t have to happen

Within days, we’ll witness a string of atrocities across Afghanistan, as the Taliban consolidates power, takes revenge on those who opposed it, and reimposes its sordid, misogynistic rule. The US went into Afghanistan to evict the Taliban not because they were, and are, evil; we went there because they refused to turn over Al Qaeda to stand justice. For this reason, the US deployed the force necessary to evict the Taliban in a truly amazing display of military power.

In the twenty years since that happened, various American Presidents tried and failed to extricate the nation from the war. It was clear to all that the end of an active US military presence in the Hindu Kush (the ancient term for the area we know as the “nation” of Afghanistan) would mean a return of the Taliban. America tried increasing its presence and operations to destroy the Taliban, tried increasing its civil involvement (building schools, writing laws, fostering businesses), tried reducing its military footprint to reduce frictions, and finally tried negotiating directly with the hated Taliban.

In the last five years, the US engaged in a strategy of delay and stalemate. We provided the Afghan government with all the means to succeed while realizing it never could: in effect we propped it up. We built up the Afghan military so it could resist the Taliban, but only if it retained the continued training, air support, and logistics from the US Army. This strategy succeeded by not losing.

Some decried this strategy as defeatist. While the American way of war emphasizes victory, the American public (and its elected officials) no longer have the stomach for the carnage (both to our soldiers and the enemy) that entails. Waiting the Taliban out was always a long-shot, but it had worked so far. Why did we abandon it?

Some said that Afghanistan was America’s longest war. They are either wrong or simply lying. We have been at war with the People’s Democratic Republic of (North) Korea for seventy-plus years. The fact we currently have an armistice that makes people (even South Koreans) think the war is over is testament to how a strategy of waiting the enemy out can succeed. In the meantime, South Korea evolved into a vibrant economy, a manufacturing powerhouse, and even a nascent democracy.

That long “not peace” was not always as peaceful as it is today. At times after the 1951 armistice, the sides exchanged fire and postured. North Korea infiltrated forces across the DMZ to attack targets in the South, and even master-minded an attack on the Blue House and the terrorist bombing of a South Korean airliner in 1987. The US and the Republic of Korea forces suffered casualties, but full-scale combat was avoided. This was a long-term, successful strategy by any measure.

Could this strategy have worked in Afghanistan? It was. Over the past five years, the US drew-down forces and reduced its footprint and operational tempo. We gradually let the Afghan Army take the lead, but were always close at hand in case “things went south” (as we used to say in the Army).

But what of the casualties? I want to be crystal clear here. I was a soldier once; many of my classmates served in Afghanistan, and some died there. No soldier wants to die, and soldiers deserve to know they’re not being sacrificed for no reason. But they do know, from day one in basic training, that they may be sacrificed. Especially in an all-volunteer, professional military, this is a well-understood proposition. Our casualties during the last five years in Afghanistan ran under ten deaths per year. We lose a thousand service-members annually to training accidents. There was no countless-deaths-in-vain reason to withdraw.

From the Federation of American Scientists. OCO is war-on-terror combat, non-OCO is training

But what of the cost? Even with the monumental (and well-documented) corruption, Afghanistan represented a minimal financial burden to the US. In the last few years, we were spending around $50 billion US dollars annually on all activities in Afghanistan; that’s what the entire US government spends in two days. The people who say the cost was too high are the exact same people who said we couldn’t just destroy Al Qaeda and leave the Taliban in charge, we had to create a democracy and build Afghanistan’s civil infrastructure. We tried; it didn’t take, or at least it didn’t take well-enough that Afghani soldiers felt compelled to fight and die to defend it. Maybe it just needed more time, but the clock ran out.

President Trump was wrong to direct a withdrawal from Afghanistan. Like most of his decisions, it went against his own hand-picked advisors, and seemed to be based on his gut instincts or his dislike for the Bush family. He thought he was being decisive in “ending an endless war,” when he simply misunderstood that in combat, only the loser can end a war. He has that decision on his record forever.

Even more execrable is President Biden’s decision to not only withdraw, but to accelerate the timetable. President Biden has seen fit to completely rescind almost every policy President Trump put into place, but here he doubled-down on it. I recall the quote of the Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who said Mr. Biden had the unique position of being ‘the only person wrong on every major foreign policy issue in the past forty years.’ Looks like the string remains unbroken. His administration set arbitrary (and inane) deadlines, like withdrawing by September 11th. Then they advanced them further, apparently realizing all hell was breaking loose but not that such a move would be reminiscent of Saigon, 1975.

The Last Helicopter: Evacuating Saigon
Nothing to see here, move along!

Proving that this was a policy decision not fully coordinated with the military, the administration conveniently ignored the fact that thousands of Afghanis (and their families) who worked with the US military had to be evacuated or they would be massacred; the haphazard evacuation continues today. Administration spokesmen blithely bat away the helicopters-on-the-rooftops comparison, while the President orders three-thousand US Marines back into Kabul to evacuate the US Embassy. Guess we’ll use Humvees this time.

Yes, this war dragged on. Yes, the US engaged in mission creep, and was never willing to destroy the Taliban. Yes, the US military was going to keep sending soldiers home draped in coffins as long as this war continued. No, there was no compelling need for President Trump’s rash decision, nor President Biden’s inexcusable continuation of it. No, we were not bleeding ourselves dry outside Kandahar, nor were we bankrupting the nation’s treasure bankrolling corrupt Afghan officials. No, this loss was not inevitable. It was a choice.

As I said before–and as it has always been–the losers determine when a war ends. There is no dignity in this withdrawal, whether or not we see people clinging to helicopter skids. Our military did exactly what it was asked to do. This “L” is on our Leaders, who lost hope, lacked fortitude, and thought they could finesse it. There will be no finesse in Kabul soon, only peace, the peace that comes with the grave.

Our leaders always knew, from Day One, what would happen if the Taliban returned. They now share this legacy.

On Patriotism

As we close on another American Independence day, I’ve been thinking about the nature of patriotism. It seems to me we Americans have lost the concept of the word. People talk about “love of country” and “American exceptionalism” leading to arguments that miss the point. Patriotism is not uncritical support; it is also not unsupported criticism. It is not the extremism of the fan who thinks only his team should ever win, and every referee’s decision or sport ruling to the contrary is unfair and biased. Yet it is also not detached neutrality, a keeping-your-distance and not-being-emotionally-committed attitude common in academia.

When I worked for the government, I used to remind my employees they were not neutral observers of American foreign policy: they wanted that policy to succeed, whether they personally supported it or not. (Note: we weren’t talking about policies they morally opposed; of course one is required to quit if asked to support a policy you could not in good conscience support). You didn’t need to chant “U…S…A, U…S…A!” all the time, but neither should you act like it made no difference to you.

Enough about what patriotism isn’t; what is it? Try this concept on for size: patriotism is an appreciation for the unique advantages your nationality bestows on you, unmerited on your part. Thus it does not mean your country is better than any other, nor does it mean everything your country does it right or best. This appreciative version of patriotism requires an objective view of your nation’s history, other nation’s histories, and the state of the world today. But it avoids silly chest-thumping on one hand, or ridiculous a-historical criticism on the other.

There is nothing particularly patriotic about believing your country is the greatest ever, nor in thinking solely about its many shortcomings. Both approaches lead to dead ends. There can be little doubt nations and nationalities demonstrate differing areas of excellence, and acknowledging this fact is not unpatriotic, just realistic. Brazil plays beautiful football. Nobody does cheese like France. Taiwan and computer chips. Sometimes patriotic fervor isn’t about absolute excellence, but simply relative excellence or good fit. I wouldn’t prefer the United Kingdom’s National Health Service, but the British cherish it as a national accomplishment nonetheless. It just works for them.

Heaven is where

the police are English,

the chefs are French,

the mechanics are German,

the lovers are Italian,

and the Swiss organize everything.

Hell is where

the Germans are the police,

the English are the cooks,

the French are the mechanics,

the Swiss are the lovers

and the Italians organize everything.

An old joke about Heaven, Hell and Europe

I didn’t storm the beaches at Normandy, but I benefited from the those who put an end to the Nazis. I never enslaved anyone, nor did my Irish forebears, but I was born into a society that had far more opportunity in South Bend than Sligo, just as an African American descended from slaves but born beside me in South Bend had so much more opportunity than a distant cousin still in Soweto. That we both had different (and unequal) opportunities is both a global statement of fact and a call for continued hard work. It is simply amazing to me that some people today think it is a remarkably American failing that inequality exists; if this surprises you, you either haven’t traveled much or weren’t paying attention when you did.

All nations have strengths and weaknesses. As do all forms of government, all ethnic groups, and all individuals. Being honest about these strengths and weaknesses is not disloyal, while only considering one or the other might be. I have little patience for those who say “America: love it or leave it.” I have no patience whatsoever for those who claim unrelenting criticism is some higher form of patriotic fervor.

America is, was, and ever will be far short of perfect. Yet it remains a blessing to be born an American, regardless of race, creed, or color. In praise or criticism, this remains true, and only an ingrate would challenge it.

Happy Independence Day!

Eucharistic Bombs

It’s not every day one sees Catholic doctrine debated on the front pages of the New York Times and in the chyrons of the so-called news channels. Given the quality of the debate we’ve witnessed recently, that’s a good thing. Watching professed-atheist journalists wrestle with concepts like transubstantiation is like watching monkeys with the proverbial football. Better still is “former” Catholics proclaiming their own gospel, Bishops suddenly attempting to regain the standing to make moral judgments, and poorly-catechized Catholics offering their take on right-and-wrong. Phew; what’s a poor sinner to do?

What do you believe?

You may have heard that the US Conference of Catholic Bishops recently decided to issue a document attacking President Biden for receiving Holy Communion when he attends Mass. You might have heard that Pope Francis warned the American Bishops not to do this, but they did so anyway. You may have heard the Bishops are in the tank for former-President Trump and are attacking the current occupant of the White House for political reasons. You might even believe the Bishops have no moral standing to tell anybody anything, what with several decades of child sexual abuses allegations on their hands. All these things have an element of truth to them; none is actually correct. Like the blind men and the elephant, people are grasping for a partial truth, and oftentimes seeing what they want to see. Let’s stop looking through a glass darkly and see things as they are, shall we?

I know you were told there would be no math, but no one said we wouldn’t discuss Catholic doctrine, which is where we have to start. First off, Catholics believe in the Real Presence, namely, that the bread and wine on the altar are trans-substantiated into the real body and blood of Jesus Christ. This is a non-negotiable, eternal element of Catholicism. It means that the Eucharist is the “source and summit of the Christian life.” It is nourishment for the journey that is life, and a source of strength for life’s battle between good and evil. It made me laugh when some claimed the Bishops were “weaponizing the Eucharist.” Why of course they were; that is its purpose.

Because of this teaching, Catholics must be worthy to receive the Eucharist. This is a nuanced subject, as no one is truly worthy to receive the Savior’s body and blood. What worthiness involves is being in communion with the Church (believing what the Church teaches), not being in a state of serious (i.e., mortal) sin, and having completed the prescribed fast and penitence. So all Catholics are sinners, but repentant and in accord with the Church, so we go to Mass and line up for Holy Communion, or if we know we don’t qualify right now, we stay in the pews until we are. It does not matter whether you failed to keep a one-hour fast before communion, or you are remarried but not annulled in the eyes of the Church, or you are an abortion-performing doctor: all require the believing Catholic to repent and do penance before returning to the Eucharistic line. A long time ago, the faithful only took Holy Communion once a year, or tried to win a Divine Trifecta by being baptized, confessing, and receiving their first communion on their death bed (talk about just-in-time delivery!). Eventually the Church taught we all need the sustenance of the Divine Presence, seeking to avoid such heavenly gamesmanship.

The Church in America today is in crisis. Actually, the entire Roman Catholic Church is always in crisis. It began with leaders who were doubters, deniers, braggarts, vengeance seekers, fools and knaves, and never got better. There is a wonderful story about Napoleon occupying Rome, and learning that the Pope had forbid it, whereupon he threatened a Cardinal thusly, “Your Eminence, are you not aware that I have the power to destroy the Catholic Church?” To which the Cardinal replied: “Your Majesty, we Catholic clergy have done our best to destroy the Church for the last eighteen hundred years. We have not succeeded, and neither will you.”

Somewhere between one-half and two-thirds of American Catholics do not believe in the Real Presence, despite it being consistent, unchanging Church teaching. Now there is nothing wrong with believing communion (note the small “c”) is only a symbol of Christ’s presence; this is a common holding of many Protestant sects. But is it most certainly not Roman Catholic teaching. So there is little doubt that Catholic catechesis is lacking, and whose job is that? The Bishops. Despite whatever other failings they have, the job is theirs.

On top of this, about half of Catholics don’t think abortion is a serious (as before, mortal) sin, reinforcing the lack of Catholic education. Again, there has been no change in Church teaching, as abortion has been around as long as the Church. And to remind, mortal sin is a dis-qualifier for receiving Holy Communion. Many of these Catholics don’t go to Mass, so the issue is somewhat academic. But some do. Now if you secretly support abortion, and go to Mass, and receive Holy Communion, your sin is very serious, but a private one: no one but you and God will know. You may be damned (it’s up to Christ), but your twitter standing is secure.

But what if you publicly proclaim your support for abortion rights, support funding for it, defend it as a morally-acceptable choice, and campaign for officials who do likewise, and then go receive Holy Communion? Why, you’re President Biden! Or Speaker Pelosi. Or any of a number of Catholic politicians who do so. And here’s the rub: by being public in their position, and continuing to receive Holy Communion, they commit an additional sin the Catholic Church calls scandalizing the faithful. This means other Catholics will look at them, see they say and do as they please with no sanction, so they must not be wrong, right?

This is the dilemma the Bishops face. Failing to act, and to teach what the Church believes, they ended up with faithful who don’t believe. Take a position, and you enter into politics, since the overwhelming majority of Catholics who support abortion rights are Democrats. What about the Bishop’s support of then-President Trump? Isn’t it hypocritical to call out President Biden? President Trump wasn’t Catholic (Gracias a Dios) so supporting him was a prudential issue, where one had to measure various political, moral, and ethical positions and decide. Faithful Catholics could come down for or against, and they did. President Biden is Catholic, so his behavior becomes an issue of Catholic teaching and who gets to decide what Catholics believe. Which are the Bishops.

Or should I say, the Bishop. One aspect of Catholic doctrine only covered in passing is the role of the national conferences. They are advisory bodies, a relatively recent phenomenon, meant to give the Church a means to speak in unity on national issues. Their writ extends to consensus documents and to such things as which extra holy days of obligation (Church feasts) to require for the faithful in their country. This is why Pope Francis admonished the Bishops to ensure whatever they taught about receiving Holy Communion, it was not divisive. He did not, and could not, say it was ok to receive Holy Communion in a state of serious sin, nor did he suggest support for workers’ rights, immigration, or child care were issues as serious as abortion. In fact, then Cardinal Bergoglio was the principle author of the Aparecida document which stated the prohibition forcefully: “We must adhere to ‘eucharistic coherence,’ that is, be conscious that they (editor’s note: politicians) cannot receive Holy Communion and at the same time act with deeds or words against the commandments, particularly when abortion, euthanasia, and other grave crimes against life and family are encouraged. This responsibility weighs particularly over legislators, heads of governments, and health professionals.”

In the end, whether President Biden receives Holy Communion in the District of Columbia every Sunday is up to Cardinal (Archbishop) Wilton Gregory, who has said “yes, he may.” And if the President travels outside of Archdiocese of Washington, it is up to the Bishop in whatever diocese he visits. Normally, these issues are dealt with privately in a parish setting. The would-be communicant visits the parish pastor, finds out what is needed to be “in communion” and not in a state of serious sin, then accommodates the priest’s directions. Sometime a priest recognizes someone in line for Holy Communion and is forced to make a snap-judgment: the priest may know the communicant was (at some time) not eligible, but what if they went to some other priest and are now “worthy” in Church eyes? The problem with public figures is they provide a public example, which reinforces the lack of understanding by the faithful, requiring a very public response which can be characterized as political. And remember, the priest is responsible for helping even a wayward Catholic, for in knowingly receiving Holy Communion in an unworthy state, the sinner merits even greater punishment.

Are some Catholic American Bishops engaging in politics? Maybe. Is there a deficiency in Catholic Americans’ understanding of the Real Presence? Yup. Will the Bishops author a document attacking President Biden? Nope. In the end, they will reiterate Church teaching on worthiness, specify that it is incumbent on the faithful to comply, and that Bishop’s only–not the believer–make the determination. I would bet they will have a sentence or two reminding public officials that, despite the claims of President Kennedy and Governor Mario Cuomo, there is no exception for elected officials who are Catholic. That will be all. The Bishops will approve the document, as will the Vatican. There is nothing new here.

Not all sins are equal, and I understand that non-Catholics may find it hard to believe that failing to support programs for real live children is not as morally suspect as abortion. However, for Catholics, there are differences, and if you want to say you’re Catholic, you don’t get the option of personally challenging how the Church categorizes sin. Sin, by itself, does not disqualify a Catholic from receiving Holy Communion. Serious sin, and disregarding Church teaching to reform and refrain from it, does. Even for Presidents.

Getting to “yes” in Palestine

In my last post, I reviewed the tangled, complicated events of the most recent conflict in the Gaza strip between Israel and Hamas. Some friends asked whether there was any way to cut the Gordian knot and achieve peace between the Israelis and Palestinians. The expert opinion says “no” because the issues are many, the hatreds deep, and the political will is lacking. All three are true, but there is only one thing preventing peace in the area (in my opinion): unrealistic expectations.

Such expectations can be moderated by real leaders, to the benefit of all concerned. Currently, leaders on both sides choose to pander to the expectations, with predictably violent results.

What are those unrealistic expectations?

For the Jews, there are some who believe they have a Divine Writ to the Holy Land, meaning all the territory of Judea and Samaria belongs always and forever to the State of Israel. I am not here to debate the theological underpinnings of this claim, but only to state it is a maximalist position that can never be realized. For if Israel were to ever claim sole jurisdiction over all that territory it would cease to be a majority Jewish state in a matter of years. There are currently about seven million Jews and seven million Arabs in that territory, and another two-and-a-half million Palestinian Arabs in Jordan and Syria. The Jewish state would soon face an Arab majority voting bloc, or the need to create a permanent sub-class of Arab citizenship: real apartheid. Which would be anathema to most Jews and the international community. So it’s never going to happen.

For the Palestinians, there are those who believe they have the right to a separate, fully-sovereign (aka “normal”) state with Jerusalem as its Capital. Now it is undeniably true that this was mostly what was on-offer in the 1947 agreement which the United Nations brokered (Jerusalem was shared). But that was eight wars, two intifadas, and few thousand terrorist attacks ago. Things have changed, so to speak. The first thing the new Palestinian state did was ally with five Arab nations and attempt to destroy Israel. During the period of Arab control, they evicted all Jews from Jerusalem and prohibited Jewish prayer at the Kotel, or Western Wall. Given the upper hand, the Palestinians have repeatedly acted in bad faith: and all this knowing that the very creation of the State of Israel happened as a result of international recognition that the Jews could not rely on other nations to behave.

Drive off the unrealistic expectations on both sides and an agreement is difficult, but possible.

For Israel, Palestine must recognize its right to exist and to defend itself. This has been the secret to Israel’s successful negotiations of peace with Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab states. There is no sense engaging diplomatically toward a long-term agreement with an opponent who insists you must die. The Palestinians must accept this. And, because the geography of any two-state solution is so irregular as to make Israel literally un-defendable, and because of the long history of unprovoked attacks, the Palestinians must accept status as a demilitarized state: no military forces, no weapons of any kind. There is only one country interested in attacking Palestine, and it is Israel, for defensive purposes. Remove the ability to threaten, and you remove the need for any military force.

Could you defend the blue from the orange? Somehow they did, but they’ll never agree to this again

Next, secure this solution by giving Israel complete control over the land/air/sea ports of embarkation into the Israeli/Palestinian territories, solely for purposes of excluding the introduction of weapons. The Palestinians can control immigration, but any object moving in or out must be inspected by the Israelis. The Israelis would also retain the right to patrol all borders, for the same reason.

Third, Jerusalem would remain under Jewish control, but further resettlement and historical claims to land titles would be reviewed under UN sponsorship. The Palestinian government would be given land and transit rights to establish government buildings (like the UN has in New York) and the right to claim Jerusalem as its capital. Religious sites for Christians, Muslims, and Jews would be under the control of religious authorities, with guaranteed access as long as they are used solely for religious activities (i.e., no protests, no political rallies, no violence, in which case they could be temporarily closed by Israeli authorities).

Fourth, Jews and Arabs who lost property in the wake of the 1947 war and other conflicts could apply for remuneration under a UN-sponsored process allocating funds donated by the international community. While it is unfortunate that people lost long-standing family homes, it is impossible to recreate the 1947 status quo. Application is contingent on surrendering any existing claims to actual property.

Fifth, and finally, the lines between the two states should be established solely by the determination of local communities in one-time plebiscites. While this will create mostly contiguous borders, there will be isolated minority communities, which will require detailed negotiations on management and access. The goal here (remembering that the security issue is mitigated by the overall peace agreement, as well as the Israeli control of borders) is to encourage more open commerce and interaction between the communities, in hopes that eventually they choose to co-exist.

The Jews would have a Jewish majority, secure state, with the ability to ensure no threatening weapons can enter. The Palestinians would have a state of their own, with a Capital in Jerusalem, but at the cost of total demilitarization and demonstrated acceptance of Israel’s right to exist. Those made refugees receive redress, if not the return of their property.

Are these peace terms unprecedented? Hardly. Costa Rica is an example of a state without a military despite living in a bad neighborhood. Japan went from militaristic to pacifist in a single lifetime, and no sane nation fears Japan’s Self-Defense Forces. There are even great examples of the details of a demilitarization process. The US and Switzerland have seventy-five years of experience with the functioning of extra-territorial government bodies (i.e., the United Nations). Many nations split their government functions up at multiple sites, and several have non-contiguous territory.

If it is all so clear and precedented, what is the hold-up? As I alluded to earlier, leadership. I mentioned the Israeli government’s paralysis, giving Prime Minister Netanyahu the push toward his natural, uncompromising positions. It is even worse for the Palestinians. The President of the Palestinian National Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, is (a memorable quip from The Economist) “in the seventeenth year of a four year term.” Some suggest Hamas is not a terrorist group, since they have social service and administrative elements, and they even won an election in 2006. This is straining to put things in a good light, like the doctor who tells you that you have “a good cancer.” Those who always argue for more democracy should take a long look at this situation: many votes have brought to power (1) a corrupt leader beholden to a minority of extremists, (2) a corrupt and ineffectual octogenarian who has missed every opportunity to negotiate, and (3) murderous terrorists. So much for the wisdom of these crowds.

A breakthrough is unlikely either in Israeli politics or Gaza. Hope remains that a new generation of leaders in the West Bank could revive negotiations, leaving Hamas and the Gaza strip as a problem to be resolved later. A successful peace negotiation just for the West Bank would be a powerful impetus and undermine Hamas’ claims, while also allowing even tighter restrictions on Gaza in the meantime.

The Jews and Palestinians are like conjoined twins fighting it out in the womb, neither one realizing that the death of one will result in the death of both. We should all pray they choose new leaders, who choose life.

What Just Happened: Gaza

Israel warplanes and artillery mercilessly bombed Palestinian civilians trapped in the Gaza strip. The Israeli government evicted Palestinians from Jerusalem neighborhoods to secure Jewish control of the city. Jewish mobs dragged Palestinians from their cars and killed them.

Or . . .

Hamas indiscriminantly launched hundreds of rockets into Israel. Palestinian mobs threw rocks down on Jews praying at the Western Wall, and set fire to cars and synagogues elsewhere.

Or . . .

Cynical political leaders on both sides used a violent confrontation to further their own positions. Biased media reported parts of the story to get you to take sides. Gullible people who should be researching the situation instead shared and tweeted and emoted about things like international law and war crimes about which they knew little.

I’ll review the facts, you decide!

The current flare up–and remember, there have been countless ones before this–began in a courtroom. The Israeli Supreme Court was set to decide whether a group of Palestinians could be evicted from the Sheik Jarrar neighborhood of Jerusalem. The Palestinians had lived there since 1948, after having been displaced during the original Jewish-Arab conflict. The neighborhood had been Jewish prior to 1948, but the Jordanian government, which seized all of Jerusalem during the war and expelled the Jews, now had thousands of Arab refugees (there were no people called “Palestinians” at this time, as the term was a general one for the region, and not used for any specific people. It would be like referring to Ohioans as Midwesterners: true, but not specific). Jordan decided to settle displaced Arabs in former Jewish properties with the approval of the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA). While this was a practical solution, it did violate concepts of international law which forbid the re-titling of personal property forcibly seized pursuant to war.

Even the Jordanians respected this precedent, so despite Palestinian claims, Jordan never gave them proper title during the next twenty years, and Sheik Jarrar remained a Jewish neighborhood with Arab residents. The Israelis reclaimed all of Jerusalem in the 1967 war, and began systematically removing Palestinian squatters, both by legal and illegal means. This activity has proceeded in fits and starts for fifty-three years. At one point, Palestinian residents of Sheik Jarrar agreed to a compromise to be permitted to stay indefinitely as long as they paid rent, on which they subsequently reneged. The Israeli Supreme Court finally ruled last year that the Palestinians had to vacate the property by May of this year, but last month delayed the eviction to let the Israeli Attorney General take one more look at the case.

Point #1: International law is clear that these specific properties are Jewish and the Israelis have every right to evict the Palestinians. That said, the Israeli government has also evicted thousands of Palestinians without proper legal authority, and denies Palestinians the “right of return” to their former properties in Israel, the same right they are enforcing in Sheik Jarrar.

In anticipation of the end of the Muslim holy period of Ramadan, and the expected Israeli Supreme Court decision, Palestinian youth began gathering nightly at the Damascus Gate, a popular location along the Old City wall. Local Jewish authorities responded with riot dispersal methods before any real problems happened: perhaps with the intent to defuse, but ultimately inflaming the situation.

Jewish extremists gathered near the al-Aqsa Mosque on May 10th to celebrate “Jerusalem Day” and the recapture of the holy city during the 1967 war. These same marchers demanded access to al-Aqsa and were denied by Israeli security forces, but they subsequently engaged in acts of vandalism and violence at various locations in and around the city.

Palestinians responded by occupying the Temple Mount, the site of the Dome of the Rock (al-Aqsa), and began throwing rocks down on Jews praying at the Western Wall. This is a time-honored Palestinian technique which puts the Jewish authorities in a bind: ignore the rock throwers and Jews will be killed at the Western Wall. Respond, and that requires forcing your way up a narrow staircase and occupying part of the sacred Muslim ground on the Temple Mount. Almost always, the Jews choose the latter, resulting in tear gas and rubber bullets on holy ground, but in the end, an end to the fatal rock throwing.

Point #2: Every Israeli-Palestinian conflict begins with a series of action-reaction-overreaction cycles. The youths did not spontaneously gather; they were encouraged in case the Israeli court issued a ruling. The police did not have to disperse the original crowd. The Jewish extremists did not need to approach al-Aqsa. The protesters did not have to throw rocks from al-Aqsa. Same as it always was.

Next, Hamas began launching thousands of un-aimed rockets into Israel from Gaza, to “protect the dignity of the al-Aqsa Mosque from the Zionist occupiers.” To review, Hamas is the terrorist organization that seized control in Gaza in 2007. Their website states Hamas is a “popular, patriotic Palestinian, Sunni Islamist movement that resists the Zionist occupation.” Wait, isn’t one man’s terrorist another man’s freedom fighter? Why yes, but with whom do you agree? Hamas is a terrorist organization according to the USA, the Israelis (‘natch), the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and others; Russia, China, Syria, and Egypt support Hamas. Hamas denies the Holocaust, and while publicly suggesting a willingness to negotiate with Israel, when speaking in Arabic to Arab populations, cites the ‘worldwide Jewish conspiracy’ and the religious duty to kill all Jews everywhere. The Israeli government would have a better chance negotiating with the Illinois Nazi Party.

Israel has the world’s preeminent anti-missile system, called Iron Dome, which can intercept these Hamas attacks. Except no system is 100% effective, and since the Hamas rockets are unguided and go just about anywhere, even the successful intercepts can result in large chunks of metal falling from the sky. And civilian casualties. Not to mention the fear factor of sirens wailing at all hours of the day and night, as Israelis scramble to get into safe-rooms in their homes (Israeli codes require them) or community shelters (provided by the government–remember this point for later). So the situation becomes intolerable for the Jewish people, even if casualties remain low. Thus Israeli leaders face a challenge: wait out the attacks, using up expensive Iron Dome intercepts on cheap Hamas rockets, or go after the launching systems and the people who push the buttons.

In Gaza, the Hamas leadership occupies a densely-populated (ranked as a city, it would be 43rd) urban area. It is, in effect, an urbanized refugee camp, which Israel can effectively blockade when it wants. Yet somehow, Hamas manages to smuggle in building supplies to dig hundreds of tunnels, both to further smuggling efforts into Egypt and to infiltrate terrorists into Israel proper. Note that Hamas does not insist upon safe-rooms in Palestinian high-rises, nor does it build community shelters. In fact, Hamas is infamous for co-locating its weapons and headquarters in schools, hospitals, and in this conflict, even a media center. Prior to the ceasefire, two-hundred thirty Palestinians and twelve Israelis had died.

The challenges of urban counter-strike operations

Point #3: In any Hamas-Israeli conflict, civilian casualties will always be one-sided. Israel can try all they want to limit Palestinian casualties, but Hamas is actually seeking more Palestinian casualties: more martyrs, more innocent bodies for the international media to cover, more calls for revenge. There is no accountability for Hamas, which does not need votes because it has the guns.

If the Israelis can defend against the missiles barrages, and striking into Gaza leads to inevitable civilian casualties, why doesn’t the government just wait it out? While this sounds attractive as an option, it has yet to work. Hamas and other militant groups have launched literally thousands of rockets into Israel in the last twenty years. The UN has even labelled these attacks as “terrorism” and oftentimes the Israelis make little or no response. However, when the attacks occur en masse, or seem aimed at specific areas (like Tel Aviv or Jerusalem), the Israelis respond. Can you name a country which stands by and suffers thousands of cross border attacks without responding? I can’t either.

The Israelis have physically invaded Gaza before, and could occupy the entire Gaza strip. However, doing so would require an extended urban military operation, resulting in tens of thousands of casualties and the destruction of most of the property. In the end (under international law), the Israelis would assume responsibility for the homeless refugees in an urban wasteland.

So Israeli government responses are a fine-tuned political calculation: enough force to reassure citizens and inflict pain on Hamas without causing an international outcry. Yet Israel’s national government is a precarious coalition. “Bibi” Netanyahu’s party has never achieved more than thirty percent in four elections over the last two years, so he remains Prime Minister in a caretaker role as the elections continue. And there is a powerful impetus to play the hard-line “warrior” leader in the meantime.

Point #4: No one should ignore the role internal Jewish politics plays in these crises. Jewish extremists wish to expel all Muslims from Jerusalem and elsewhere, and their small political parties play a crucial swing-vote role in determining the rise and fall of Israeli governments. No Israeli politician is ever penalized for acting or reacting too harshly to external threats; one (Yitzhak Rabin) was assassinated for being too willing to negotiate.

One new thing in this conflict was the effect of social media, which abetted the spreading violence into more and different areas. Using social media apps, Jews and Arabs began making claims about atrocities committed by the other side, and organizing to take revenge. This cycle witnessed Jewish mobs dragging suspected “Arabs” out of cars, and Israeli Arabs (there are almost two million of them living in Israel) forming mobs to burn cars and synagogues.

Point #5: Once again, social media demonstrated how it can be a tool for good or evil.

So, to wrap it all up. Does Israel have a long history of abusing the rights of Palestinians? Yes. Have Arabs and Palestinians constantly tried to eliminate Israel and the Jews since the founding of the state in 1947? Yes. Is Israel strong enough to defend itself against any threat at this time? Yes. Does Hamas employ terrorism simply to provoke Israel? Yes. Is Israel legally justified in responding to Hamas missiles? Yes. Has Israel ever offered a two-state solution to the Palestinians? Yes. Does current Israeli politics practically prevent a similar offer now? Yes.

This latest spasm was a calculated effort on both sides: by Hamas, who had virtually nothing to lose, and perhaps could incite leftist opposition in the West (which it did). For Prime Minister Netanyahu, it was a chance to look the part of a forceful leader and test whether President Biden would back him (he did). Hamas has enough propaganda film for an entire season on PBS; the Israeli military believes they destroyed a significant amount of Hamas tunnels, launchers, and rising leaders.

The ceasefire will hold, because both sides can claim they won, and both sides have nothing more to gain at the moment. But the war goes on, as it has, since 1947. Whether the next spasm of violence comes from an arrest, a bombing, a riot, or an eviction, it will come. While the Jewish and Palestinian people continue to suffer, leaders for both seem unable to find a way to separate them, equitably, so they may live in peace.

What ails America?

It seems like Americans agree on few things these days. Perhaps the one thing almost all Americans agree on is something is wrong in America. Even there, the agreement is only skin-deep: progressives and conservatives have decidedly different opinions on what is wrong, yet agree that something is wrong.

For conservatives, America has lost its moral bearings, forgotten its past, and seems dead set on atomizing into various victim-groups competing for an ever more debt-fueled federal largess. Progressives see a people unwilling to remember its failings, unable to accept new rights claimants, blind to racism, sexism, and ever-greater economic inequality. For the moment, I’m willing to stipulate that both are correct, and at the same time, totally irrelevant. Why? Because both are focused on symptoms, not the problem.

America is unique among nations because it is a nation based on a notion. That notion is a complex mix of individual liberty, collective responsibility, and the right to be left alone. It was heavily influenced by English common law and traditions, and deeply embedded in a Judeo-Christian background. I would characterize that background as America’s Soul. The Founders, from a variety of religious backgrounds, were clear:

  • Washington: Religion is “a necessary spring of popular government.”
  • Adams: Leaders “may plan and speculate for Liberty, but it is Religion and Morality alone, which can establish the Principles upon which Freedom can securely stand.” and “Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.”
  • Franklin: “the longer I live, the more convincing proofs I see of this Truth–that God governs in the Affairs of Men. . . . I also believe that without his concurring Aid, we shall succeed in this political Building no better than the Builders of Babel.”

I am not engaging in the tiresome “is America a Judeo-Christian nation?” argument. I am stating that the notion that is America rests upon a Judeo-Christian heritage, which is now only tenuous. The Deism that animated so many of the Founding Fathers was a Christian heresy (technical term, not derogatory). Their ‘Watchmaker’ God was not Zeus; He only makes sense as a derivative of Yahweh. And that connection is practically lost today.

The notion of America has changed subtly over time. Jefferson foresaw a nation of land-owning farmer-gentlemen. Lincoln envisioned a born-again Republic free from its original sin. Roosevelt sought solidarity among the classes and the birth of a world power. Reagan proclaimed the triumph of that power and renewed personal freedom.

All different, all variations on a theme.

The American people are once again in the process of debating that theme. During our recent visit to the States (grandkids & vaccinations), Gallup released poll data showing, for the first time, Church membership in the United States fell below fifty percent. As recently as the turn of the century, almost seventy percent of Americans belonged to a Church, and the decline since has been precipitous. This is something new: the theme is up for discussion, but so is the background.

The answer is not simply a call to return to the pews (as much as I would welcome that). America experienced a series of Great Awakenings, Protestant revivals that corresponded to various American crises. But today’s problem is not simply the dramatic decline in American Protestantism, but the deeper loss of any American connection to its Judeo-Christian heritage.

“Who cares about religion, anyway, can’t we just live by the Golden Rule?” That rule exists in nearly all religions and cultures, so I would respond with “how has that worked out for the world so far?” Its secular limits are many and obvious: “others” not defined as people, the narcissist who expects to be taken advantage of, the problem of scale. The Judeo-Christian elaboration on the Golden Rule provided means to address these problems, and provided a check on the way we respond to each other’s disagreements. That people at times violated these rules no more invalidates the rules than a murder invalidates the crime of murder.

This all plays out in complex ways, across a spectrum of issues. The First Amendment guarantee of freedom of religion was a rational attempt to avoid favoring one religion over another in order to avoid the religious wars which plagued Europe. Extended today to the relationship between religion and unbelief, it becomes untenable: you can’t interpret law to be neutral to both a positive concept and its denial. This has lead to increasingly complex and contradictory Supreme Court rulings, wherein individuals seek more restrictions on religious activities and various faiths seek more and more exemptions from existing law.

Shorn from the Christian dictum to “care for your neighbor (and who is your neighbor?),” conservatives feel free to ignore family separations and leave the old and sick vulnerable to pandemia. Progressives discover a new Gospel. In their telling, Jesus says to the rich man, “Go, support a huge government program for the poor, use the right #hashtag, and you will inherit the Kingdom of God.”

Science advances apace, but in what direction? Moral questions of whether we should do something are pushed aside in favor of simple utilitarian answers. Scientists in California and China teamed up to create chimeras: embryos that are part monkey, part human. They claim to be addressing the need for more organs to transplant, and deny any ethical issues. Should we follow this science?

The absence of Christian charity in our exchanges should be obvious: it is why we often immediately question the motives of any who disagree, characterize any transgression as evil (I would say mortal sin), and refuse to offer or accept simple forgiveness. Our American system of government is full of checks and balances, and therefor it requires compromise to function. But now both sides seem more interested in scoring points or dominating, not cooperating.

I could cite a thousand examples, from hate crimes to tax policy to road rage to immigration to, well, you get the point. America is losing, perhaps has lost, its Soul. It wasn’t the fault of any faith, political party or movement. It wasn’t simply the aggregation of a trend by millions of individuals deciding just to sit home and watch the NFL on Sunday. It happened over a long period of time, mostly as a result of neglect: a simple lack of understanding of the role our Soul played in the notion of the nation of America.

Am I overstating the role of Soul? Look at the Presidents we most admire, and see how they all intuited, and used, our reliance on Soul. Lincoln, himself not a Christian, was the greatest practitioner: calling on God time and again, citing our better angels, readily pulling memorable quotes from the Bible. Roosevelt’s “nothing to fear” line directly mirrors “Be not afraid” while he characterized the New Deal as “the path of faith, the path of hope, the path of love.” Reagan constantly borrowed the optimistic view characteristic of Christianity.

As Lincoln so well put it, “‘A house divided against itself cannot stand.’. . . I do not expect the Union to be dissolved – I do not expect the house to fall – but I do expect it will cease to be divided.” Americans face a choice: what is to be our Soul? There has to be an underlying principle to our notion of a nation, one that all Americans can accept. Just as not all 18th Century Americans were Protestants, our new Soul need not be the creed for every American, but it must be accepted by all.

I recently watched an entertaining debate between Alex O’Connor, a well-followed British atheist who runs The Cosmic Skeptic YouTube channel and Bishop Robert Barron, the prolific Catholic apologist of the Archdiocese of Los Angeles and Word on Fire.

Two hours long, and with some high-fallutin’ words!

During the debate, O’Connor noted that as an atheist, he has an advantage in that he need not put forward a rival worldview, but only need point out inconsistencies in the faith-view; the onus was on those who believe. This is absolutely true in such a debate, but I believe the opposite pertains in the argument over America’s Soul. There, the existing connection (to Judeo-Christian beliefs) has been challenged, so the onus is on the challengers: what comprehensive, attractive and feasible concept do you propose?

If we were a nation based on race or ethnicity, this discussion would be unnecessary. But as a nation based on a notion, we must not only have the discussion, we must come to a conclusion. Arguing against the Judeo-Christian background is not enough; in the end, what holds US together?

Data, Numbers, & Hate

A few posts back, I promised to explore the rise in anti-Asian hate crimes. First let me explain two challenges: one is the difference between data and numbers, and the other is the difficulty in determining intent behind an action.

First, I think we all know what numbers are, but how to distinguish them from data? Data are just numbers that have been processed in some way to make them useful in comparing or combining. A simple example: if I told you the temperature in Cincinnati today was 40° but only 20° in Ajijic, you might assume Ohio was warmer than Jalisco, and that would be wrong. Those are numbers, not data. The numbers are in different scales (Fahrenheit and Centigrade); placed in the same scale, they become data and we can compare.

Another example: I just saw a headline (later revised) that said “One hundred fully-vaccinated people in Washington State have gotten Covid” which sounds scary. However, those one-hundred victims came out of a pool of 1.2 million vaccinated people in Washington. With context, the story was that less than .01% of vaccinated people in Washington later got Covid, which is reassuring, not scary. Processing numbers into data is essential!

Second, actions are easier to assess than intent. If I walk past you and don’t greet you on the street, was I angry at you, preoccupied, inconsiderate, unaware, near-sighted or some combination of all of the above. You can easily assess the fact that I did not greet you, but the cause becomes a matter of great conjecture, and I myself may not be able to answer “why?”.

You may have seen the claims of a great increase in the number of anti-Asian (sometimes referred to as anti-Asian/Pacific Islander, hence AAPI) hate incidents. Activists and the media tie the phenomenon back to the Trump administration and his blaming China for the Coronavirus pandemic in 2019. Let’s dig into the numbers (hint). The first point to understand is that the FBI has not published its 2020 crime data, so there is no single, national, data-set for hate crimes. Here is the last FBI graph:

The data are low, and hit an all-time low in 2015 before starting a gradual rise. The FBI data is not comprehensive, as law enforcement elements participate voluntarily, but it does cover more than fifteen thousand organizations representing over three-hundred million Americans.

In the absence of 2020 FBI data, what numbers do we have? The numbers cited in most major media reporting come from StopAAPIHate. Here’s the pull quote from their website: “In response to the alarming escalation in xenophobia and bigotry resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Asian Pacific Planning and Policy Council (A3PCON), Chinese for Affirmative Action (CAA), and the Asian American Studies Department of San Francisco State University launched the Stop AAPI Hate reporting center on March 19, 2020.” I’ll set aside the question of using data from a group which set out under the assumption of an “alarming escalation” and just show their results here:

There are several potential issues here. The numbers come from the sixteen largest US cities, so we have an urban skew to the data. The numbers are very small: eleven cities had incident totals in the single digits, and four reported no incidents in 2019, meaning the data could go nowhere but up. The overwhelming number (eighty-eight of one hundred twenty-two) of hate crimes happened in just six cities: New York, Los Angeles, Boston, Seattle, San Francisco, and San Jose.

StopAAPIHate has other issues. Among the numbers it uses to buttress its claim of increasing hate crimes are: Google Search terms, slurs on Twitter, and any claim that China is possibly responsible for the coronavirus. The last one would make much of the planet guilty of anti-Asian hate crimes, including most of Asia. StopAAPIHate does not acknowledge other explanations or causations (e.g., the non-representative nature of Twitter, or the use of Google search to explain unfamilar words).

It is interesting to note that overall hate crimes declined by seven per cent in 2020, while anti-Asian hate crimes rose by one-hundred forty-nine per cent. It is also relevant to note that anti-Asian hate crimes account for only seven per cent of all hate crimes, and the following groups had more reported victims of hate crimes in 2019: blacks, whites (!), Hispanics, Jews, Muslims, Gays, and LBQT+. On top of that, there is the issue of attributing crimes based solely on the race of the victims. The Anti Defamation League (ADL) discovered a huge increase in anti-Semitic attacks back in 2017 when it included thousands of false, phone-bomb threats (to Jewish Community Centers and schools) conducted by an American-Israeli Jewish student. Still, the purported rise in anti-Asian hate crimes demands attention, even if the numbers are small both in absolute and relative terms. So let’s dig into the phenomenon further. We know who the victims are, but who are the perpetrators and what are the crimes?

According to the New York Times, the NYPD does have data about the identity of perpetrators in 2020. Of the 20 anti-Asian hate crimes in which arrests were made, eleven arrested were black, five were Hispanic, two were Black Hispanic, and two were white. This tracks with the FBI’s 2019 hate crimes data, and it tracks with anecdotal reporting of 2020 and 2021 incidents. And the Times has noted that so many of the perpetrators of these alleged hate crimes are either homeless, mentally ill, or both.

As to the crimes, the vast majority of hate crimes (against all victims) were verbal intimidation/simple assault (eighty percent) or vandalism (seventy-five percent). StopAAPIHate has added the category of “shunning/avoidance” which accounted for twenty percent of its reports.

I will spare my friends a long litany of specific events, categorized as hate crimes by activists and the media, which failed to be so upon further scrutiny. A large number are simple robberies or assaults where no evidence of hate, except for the ethnicity of the victim, was ever introduced. Some attacks do include language which supports a hateful intent, but when the perpetrator is mentally ill, can we rely on their words?

So are all these incidents wrong? No. The most famous ones do not stand up to scrutiny, but there was a trend towards slightly increasing anti-Asian hate incidents going back for four years. Is the trend overblown by activists and the media? Probably.

I have little doubt more people are making more hateful statements today than yesterday. One need only check social media to confirm it. The social fabric in the States is wearing thin, and people are increasingly escalating encounters. Those with whom you disagree are not just wrong, they’re evil, why, maybe even Nazis! If someone looks askance at you, they might be “dissin'” you, and you don’t have to put up with that in 2021, do you? Activists talk about “getting in people’s faces” and even small disagreements become political battlegrounds. The other day in the States, my dear wife made the mistake of asking a woman (at a public park) whether she had lost her face mask; the woman’s response assumed my wife was attacking her for not wearing one, when actually my wife had just found a mask, and the rest of that woman’s family was wearing masks, so she thought she was about to do a good deed. Not in this day and age.

Long ago, I was a daily runner, which meant I ended up running in places like aboard a ship in Kattegat, on the rolling plains of Kansas, in smoggy Budapest and uber-urban Tokyo. In three of those locations, the sight of a lanky, six foot-plus white guy running around merited just odd looks. It was only in the States where I had cars on rural roads cross the centerline toward me, strangers toss trash at me, or carloads of teenagers hang out the windows and swear at me. And that was back in the well-meaning twentieth century! So do I believe there is more hatred now? Sure.

Is there an epidemic of specifically anti-Asian hate? Probably not. And can the increase be tied to former President Trump? Only if you believe in a secretive cabal of New Yorkers, Californians, Blacks, Hispanics and even Asians waiting to follow his lead. No, there is something deeper going on here, and I promise to cover that in the near future.

What Just Happened? Hate Crimes, Atlanta, & San Francisco

A few blog posts back, I mentioned that the problem with race-consciousness is eventually, when one adopts this worldview, you see racism everywhere. And here we are.

A few days back, a very troubled young man killed eight people in a shooting spree around Atlanta, Georgia. Of course you heard all about it; the only person who didn’t was my wife, who happened to be under dental anesthesia that day, but later had no recollection of the original event or our discussion (“What are you talking about?” was her initial response).

The news script went like this: the suspect was a twenty-one year old white man who was a “religious fanatic” and belonged to an “evangelic group.” He claimed to be a “sex addict” who attacked “massage parlors” to eliminate the “temptation” they presented to him, and he told authorities he was on his way to Florida to attack the “porn industry” when he was apprehended. Six of the eight people killed were women of Asian descent (ages thirty-three to seventy-four years old!) who worked at or owned the massage parlors. A police spokesman, when asked to explain the motivation for the killing spree the day after the attack, related that the suspect “denied having a racial motive,” and when further questioned, the spokesman ad-libbed that maybe the suspect had “a really bad day” which led to the spokesman’s reassignment from his duties. (The quotes above all come from news articles)

Those are the facts of the case as we know it. The media spin was to place this story as the crescendo of a series of anti-Asian hate crimes that began with the killing of eighty-four year-old Vicha Ratanapakdee in San Francisco in January. Media news and commentary opined that the suspect (I am intentionally avoiding using his name in accord with the idea that ignominy deserves no recognition) clearly committed a hate crime, equal parts misogynistic and racial. According to a running count by Andrew Sullivan, the New York Times ran (as of March 19th) nine stories along this line, while the Washington Post went for the gold with sixteen! Network news parroted the same line. A few went so far as to claim white male fetish-sizing of Asian women was the underlying cause, with a dollop of white supremacist violence on top. Those who mentioned the police spokesman did so with incredulity that anyone would be so stupid as to (1) believe what the suspect said his motive was and (2) could ever say anything as stupid as he had “a really bad day.” I saw at least two reports that the removed police spokesman had once tagged a racist meme on social media, calling Covid19 “the virus imported from CHY-na.”

Here’s the New York Times running highlight box

Now what is the rest of the story? It’s still early, but so far not one intrepid reporter has uncovered a single text, tweet, or social media post expressing anti-Asian or anti-woman views by the suspect. In private discussions with his friends (which a few reporters have interviewed), the suspect told them he went to Asian massage parlors not because of race, but because those parlors “were the safest place” to acquire casual sex for money. And he was a repeat customer at two (of the three) places he later attacked. The suspect had long complained of a sex addiction, and had gone to rehab more than once, yet he remained plagued by his inability to control his sexual impulses. His Baptist congregation and his parents were well aware of his continuing struggle. In fact, the night before the attack, the suspect’s parents threw him out of the house, perhaps prompting the police spokesman’s “very bad day” comment.

According to a Times’ story and video, the suspect spent an hour inside his car outside the first parlor, then spent another hour inside the facility before he started shooting. We’ll know eventually what happened before the killing began.

The media coverage of the victims has been of two minds. Some commentators decried the suggestion any of the victims were involved in the sex trade, as if that was attacking the victims. Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms denied any evidence this was the case, but she was sadly mistaken, as the attacked massage parlors were previously targeted by law enforcement and were on the sex rating app RubMaps as locations for prostitution.

Some media noted the ages of the victims and stated this somehow suggested sex was not involved; a simple Google search would reveal a story from SupChina, an all-things-Chinese web service, entitled “Chinese moms in America’s illicit massage parlors” explaining the more than nine-thousand illicit massage parlors in the United States staffed and run by 35-55 year-old Chinese women. It’s an empathetic and personal story about women trying to make ends meet for their children, but it belies the notion that “Asian massage parlors as brothels” are somehow a fantasy imposed by others. The Times even ran an earlier March story (before the attack) confirming the size and illicit activities of these parlors, although that story highlighted the Asian organized crime ties of the industry.

The President and Vice President used a previously-scheduled Atlanta visit to mourn the deaths and decry anti-Asian racist violence, but where in the preceding facts is that racism? The claim seems to go all the way back to the first national case, in San Francisco in January.

Back then Vicha Ratanapakdee, an eighty-four year-old retiree of Thai descent, was taking his daily walk in the Anza Vista neighborhood of San Francisco. Perhaps you saw his story? The unprovoked attack was caught on video and is frankly, shocking. He was violently knocked off his feet and hit his head on a garage door. He died in the hospital days later. His assailant was a nineteen year-old black man named Antoine Watson. The media coverage inevitably cited a rising tide of anti-Asian violence and linked it to former President Trump’s “China virus” tweets, despite any evidence Mr. Watson is a MAGA man or how he was influenced by the President. The local police indicated repeatedly they had no evidence of a racist motive, which was criticized by local activists and ridiculed by the national media.

The apparent ridiculousness of the Trump-Watson connection got me interested, so I waded through tens of cut-and-paste national reports looking for better coverage in the local media. There I found this gem, hidden away by the barrage of the national media narrative:

Watson was “apparently vandalizing a car” when Ratanapakdee looked toward him and changed directions on his walk, (Assistant District Attorney) Connolly said in his detention motion, citing surveillance footage from the scene. The teenager then sprinted “full speed” at Ratanapakdee an instant after the elderly man looked back at him, according to the motion. Ratanapakdee was sent flying backward and landed onto the pavement. A witness told police they heard a voice yell “Why you lookin’ at me?” twice before hearing the apparent impact, prosecutors said. Sliman Nawabi, a deputy public defender representing Watson, disputed the perception that the attack was racially motivated.“There is absolutely zero evidence that Mr. Ratanapakdee’s ethnicity and age was a motivating factor in being assaulted,” Nawabi said. “This unfortunate assault has to do with a break in the mental health of a teenager. Any other narrative is false, misleading, and divisive.” Nawabi said Watson comes from a biracial family that includes Asians and had “no knowledge of Mr. Ratanapakdee’s race or vulnerabilities” since the elderly man was wearing a mask, hat, sweater and jeans.

Michael Barber in the San Francisco Examiner, February 8th, 2021

Oh, and Watson was with a woman named Malaysia Goo, who was at the scene of the attack, was arrested as an accomplice-after-the-fact, but was later released and not charged.

So we have a man of Black-Asian descent with an (possibly) Asian woman, vandalizing a car, seeing a man covered from head-to-toe looking at him. Then the suspect knocks the potential witness off his feet. These are points upon which both the District Attorney and the Public Defender agree. These are points not mentioned by national media piece. It would be easier to find Waldo in a sea of red hats than to find the racism in this story. Yet it remains exhibit #1 of anti-Asian hate.

Some may wonder about the data cited repeatedly showing an increase in anti-Asian hate crimes in recent years. I’ve gone on long enough here, so I’ll save that part of the story for a future post. Suffice it to say there is the media narrative, there are numbers, and there is data, but all three don’t get along well together.

What’s the harm in jumping to conclusions about racism and hate crimes? First and foremost, every debunked or manufactured claim of racism undermines the many real cases of racist violence. Second, hate crimes involve proving a mindset, and any attempt to do so requires examining all the various relationships involved in the crime. It’s a major reason prosecutors don’t like to take hate crimes charges to court. If you want to prove the Georgia man hated Asian American women, you’re going to have to let the defense demonstrate all the ways he “spent time” with them, so to speak. Whose end does that serve? Third and finally, lost in all this nonsense about who-hates-whom-and-why is this simple fact: people were murdered. Which is a serious crime. Innocent people became victims and died at the hands of violent criminals. These are real crimes which call out for real justice, not hate crimes demanding social justice.

America’s Race Problem

I seriously considered leaving this post empty. Just a title. An obscure existential point? Was it not really there? Was it a fragile white page? Would you infer what I was implying?

I also considered starting with a provocative quote, like:

But there is no neutrality in the racism struggle…One either allows racial inequities to persevere, as a racist, or confronts racial inequities, as an antiracist. There is not in between safe space of ‘not racist.’ The claim of ‘not racist’ neutrality is a mask for racism.

Ibram X. Kendi, “How to be an Antiracist”

But such language is the jargon of the activist, leaving no room for discussion, no way to exchange ideas. It is the language of exclusion, not reason. So let us reason together.

Contra Kendi, does America have a race problem? If so, what is it? And then what must be done?

First it pays to define the problem (always, says the engineer-by-training). If we ask “does America have a race problem?” we necessarily imply something unique. If everybody everywhere has a race problem (and they do), and America’s is the same as everywhere else’s, well then, there is nothing American to discuss. We could talk about racism in general, and why people instinctively distrust those who look differently. Let’s accept that as a fact (people do distrust “the other”) and let’s look at what may be unique about America.

America prides itself as a nation of immigrants. America calls itself a nation committed not to a race or creed, but to an idea: freedom. France sent the statue of Liberty Enlightening the World as a gift to America, in recognition of those self-evident truths we hold so dear: “. . . that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable (sic) rights, that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.”

Yet America practiced slavery while enacting those words. It massacred Native Americans, abandoned freed slaves, derided Irish and Italian refugees, exploited Chinese laborers and imprisoned Japanese Americans. Certainly these facts alone make the case that America has a racism problem. Except every country and race has similar stories. The only unique thing here is the glaring discrepancy between actions and ideals.

To be uniquely American, the racism would need to have some distinct American characteristic. Not all these groups were immigrants, and other countries in the New World display similar discrimination between those who were here, those who came, and those who “mixed.” Mexico’s history is replete with struggles that can be directly tied back to Peninsulares (Spaniards born in España), Criollos (Spaniards born in Nueva España), Mestizos (of mixed race), and Ejidos (from the Mesoamerican peoples). Not all the groups subject to American racism were–to borrow an anachronism from today–people of color (although “Know Nothings,” the Proud Boys of their day, tried to paint the Irish and Italians as “white n-words”).

Run the tape of American history forward, and what do you find? The Irish and Italians consolidate and gain power. Latinos arrive in waves, either returning home with agricultural or economic seasons or assimilating as the second largest American ethnic minority group (although they are a disparate, heterogeneous group). Asian Americans are mirroring the patterns of the Latino population (and will eventually become the third largest ethnic group), only they are succeeding faster and in a more dramatic fashion. Elite academic institutions actively discriminate against various Asian Americans because–strictly relying on test scores–they would crowd out all other ethnic groups in the student body. Native Americans remain such a small contingent as to be statistical outliers: that they have not done well is obvious, but they’ve done better than some indigenous groups (try to find some Mexica, for example).

Which leaves African Americans. Their story, which we memorialize each February during African American History month, is unique in that they are the only such group brought to the land of freedom in chains. They are the only such group that had a governmental policy to free them (the Civil War and Reconstruction), yet they are also the only group abandoned by the same federal government (federal policy toward Native Americans never considered making them full members of American society, which was the initial goal of Reconstruction). These are historical facts.

These facts are often cited by the anti-racist, white fragility theories of Mr. Kendi and others. But do the facts support the theories and do the theories accurately describe the problem? If America is systematically racist to its core, why do millions of brown-skinned peoples quite literally march to the southern border begging to get in? They might have been excused for their ignorance once upon a time, but today, the internet has all the data they need. Why do thousands of Asians take a spot in administrative queues that may last years or decades? Why have three-quarters of the emigrants of Africa–since 1990–attempted to locate in America, where their black skin dooms them to second class status?

Something different, not systemic white racism, is going on here. If it was systemic and all-encompassing, a Jamaican-Indian couple would not have chosen to raise their daughter as “black” in 1960s Oakland, and we would not have our first black Vice President. Such a choice, and it was that by their own admission, would have been child abuse if it consigned her to a life of second-class status. In area after area where past practices of racism prohibited or limited African American participation, the elimination of those limits was followed by African American excellence: sports, music, media, law, medicine, politics and on and on.

Today, most African Americans are middle class or better. Most do not live in inner cities, but in suburbs and small cities. Most do not have a serious criminal record. They graduate high school at the same rate as the white majority. There are successful black-majority cities (Atlanta) and suburbs (Prince Georges county). There are black role models in every profession. What do these contra-indications mean? While in-depth studies of the black community demonstrate significant progress in the fifty years since 1968 riots, there are also data which point to lasting issues.

African american college graduation rates have lagged. Black unemployment recently improved but remains stubbornly high. One-third of African American males have felony convictions. Black household income, family wealth, and home ownership have only marginally improved (relative to whites) in fifty years. How to reconcile these competing data?

If you believe in critical race theory, you ignore positive developments, blame all negative outcomes on systemic racism, and draw a line in the sand called anti-racism. However, if as the anti-racists posit, America is racist to its core, and the entire system is rigged to protect fragile white egos, we never would have developed the America we have today. This does not mean racism is not a problem: racism is a problem everywhere, all the time. Let me repeat that: racism is a problem everywhere, all the time. But what confronts America is not the all-explaining, systemic racism imagined by anti-racists, but a much more specific challenge: the combination of a small black urban underclass and the soft racist policies that enable and prolong it.

When people imagine the plight of the American black community, what they envision is an urban wasteland with high rates of crime and violence, few jobs, poor housing and services, lousy schools, and no grocery stores. This description is no different from various ethnic minority ghettos of days gone by, and it remains accurate. Why has only this one persisted? There are two main reasons.

Baltimore: ’nuff said.

First, the racist limits on where blacks can live are devastating to the family, the community, housing prices, wealth accumulation, job and educational opportunities, health and victimization from crime. The solutions to this situation are not easy, but are well understood. The housing discrimination (redlining) which created and limited these communities has been carried on for decades under multiple mayoral and state government administrations. Why? It props up the property values of affluent city neighborhoods, keeps their schools segregated, and limits exposure to crime. This policy preference has persisted despite decades of Democratic Party control of major cities, and even despite the development of black-majority polities and local governments!

Which points to the second reason: a willingness among black and white activists to honor anti-social behaviors within the black community as some kind of legitimate, indigenous culture. The urban hellscape I described earlier was consistent across racial and ethnic groups, but previous inhabitants were forced to choose: abandon the anti-social behavior or be locked up or deported. Only the African-American community has been given a different alternative: stay in the slums and make a virtue out of the vices. Given the lack of opportunities (of all types), it is not surprising a number (remember, still a minority!) choose to remain mired. None of the anti-social behaviors were unique to black culture, nor did they stem from some mythic African past. Yet now they are celebrated.

There are overwhelming social science data on the negative effects of single-parent families, paternal absence, truancy, toleration of petty crime or exposure to drug use. One doesn’t have to criticize those struggling with these issues in recognizing what the data say. Add these factors in to the previous mix of poverty and hopelessness I described earlier and you have a toxic cultural brew. Affirm this toxic mess as a cultural inheritance and you have our current state of affairs.

Remember, it’s not that successful African Americans don’t face racial slights, indignities, and tangible torts: they absolutely do, every day. This remains a challenge we must all continue to face. Successful African Americans have the character to ignore them, the resources to avoid the provocations, or the access to legal or social remedies. But this is not the case for black urban underclass, and the problems there won’t be fixed with the same solutions.

I’ve touched on the solution before: a real effort to eliminate redlining’s legacy and to foster the growth and retention of a black middle class in the cities. Nowadays, the first thing a successful black family does is leave the city. Assisting them in becoming home-owners in the city’s affluent districts, or remaining in gentrifying neighborhoods, is a tangible and feasible policy. So is building affordable housing in those same areas and redeveloping the remaining areas. This in turn improves educational and professional prospects. But this would mean big-city mayors taking on the segregated, affluent power centers of their metropolises. Don’t hold your breath.

Even all this–by itself–won’t succeed. Work must also be done with leaders of the African American community to acknowledge those anti-social behaviors which have previously been tolerated or even celebrated. Past efforts in this vein have faltered as they were painted by activists as “blaming the victim,” which, in the absence of any other program to correct the problems, was true. However, no policy will succeed without addressing the self-harm the black community does. Strengthening the black nuclear family and addressing the problems associated with fatherlessness are key components. Again, where are the courageous leaders who will take this stand?

The over-emphasis on race embodied by the anti-racism movement and Critical Race Theorists defines the problem all wrong. When all you see is race, every issue becomes racism. Focusing on police violence is daft when only three percent of black murder victims are victims of police violence. Citing the greater effect of the coronavirus on African Americans is misguided when what we are seeing is not genetic, but the side effect of poverty and poor health care. Politicians and activists can take credit for meaningless gestures: changing school names while the school itself remains a shambles, or removing statues that are tributes to a history not even taught. And so the game goes on.

If you get the cause and effect wrong, you most certainly have defined the problem wrong.

And two wrongs still won’t make it right.

Attention to (Executive) Orders

President Biden has been on a tear these past two weeks, daily signing executive orders to a running total of twenty-five. What are these things, and what do they mean? As the name implies, an Executive Order (or Executive Action, the name sometimes changes) is just an order issued by the President as Chief Executive. It has the force of law within the Executive branch, meaning when I worked for the federal government, I could have been fired, fined, or jailed for violating one. But it is not a law, which requires the passage of Congress and signature of the President (as Bill from Schoolhouse Rock taught us):

Executive orders go right back to President Washington, and recent Presidents aren’t even in top ten when it comes to numbers: Teddy Roosevelt cranked out over one thousand, as did Woodrow Wilson and Calvin Coolidge; FDR spouted over three thousand, and set the record for average per year, too! Recent Presidents (starting with Clinton) started returning to executive orders as it became increasingly impossible to get any agreement on new laws in the Congress. Like a law, an executive order can be reviewed by the courts and deemed illegal or unconstitutional. When an executive order conflicts with a law, the law wins. Finally, an executive order can be rescinded by the President or his successor at will.

Some of the best and worst policies in US history came about as executive orders. FDR used EOs for many of his New Deal policies, but he also imprisoned Japanese Americans with one. Lincoln’s Emancipation Proclamation was an executive order, but so was his policy to deny habeas corpus in Maryland. Truman desegregated the US military with one, but he tried–and failed–to seize the nation’s steel mills with one, too! Woodrow Wilson found time to issue an executive order covering the use of torches for hunting in the Panama Canal Zone, and Herbert Hoover went all meta by issuing an executive order on the issuance of (wait for it) executive orders.

So are these EOs, as they’re called, important? Maybe, maybe not. Consider some examples. The President can use an EO to adjust how the federal government enforces a law. Take immigration. According to law, people inside the United States illegally are to be deported after due process. Each President can issue an EO indicating what emphasis should be placed on which groups: for example, President Obama directed (via EO) deportation be focused on violent criminals, in effect (since there are only so many immigration officers and courts) allowing many people eligible for deportation to stay in the United States. This was a very significant executive order, with very real effects on average people.

Executive orders can also be symbolic. President Trump’s “Muslim ban” (a pejorative I’ll use just as shorthand) was an Executive Order reviewed by the Supreme Court and found constitutional, primarily because the actual EO highlighted the fact that all the countries included either failed to provide–or did not have–data on their citizens for the US to consider for visa purposes. President Biden faced a dilemma: if he simply rescinded it, he would be permitting visa applications which could not be verified. So his new EO rescinds the broad policy put forward by President Trump, but retains a review of its information sharing requirements, which will likely have the same effect. Visa applicants from the countries previously banned are still going to have to provide positive proof they are not suspect in any way–a thing very hard to do.

Executive orders may cause more confusion than execution. President Biden rescinded all of President Trump’s immigration-related EOs. Except no immigration is currently permitted due to the pandemic, so no one can come anyway. But his administration telegraphed the changes before the inauguration, so now thousands of asylum-seekers are headed to the border. That, and Mexico is not very happy with the new administration, so they changed their laws (partially) to prevent the US from returning non-Mexican families across the border. So now the CDC says no one can cross, the Mexican government says no one can cross back, and the border patrol has been told what not to do (family separations). Result: migrants are walking across the border and being quarantined then released in the United States to await further processing in already overwhelmed immigration courts. Tricky business, what?

At times it is unclear what effect an EO will have. President Biden enacted a mask wearing requirement for all forms of public transportation. So if you take a bus or train, or go an airport, you too have to wear a mask. Of course, most of these locations already had a Departmental, Agency, or local requirement for masks. But now the EO means that if a federal employee (say, a National Park Service Ranger) lets you go maskless, they can be fired. And that bus driver (not a federal employee) must not let you board without a mask. Do they refuse to move the bus? Call police? Throw you off? All this remains to be worked out. I trust most people will just wear masks, but there have been several incidents on airplanes, so who knows?

It is a shame that there is so little bipartisanship in Washington that Congress can’t pass laws, so Presidents rely on possibly ephemeral executive orders. It is worse in my opinion that the media does such a poor job of explaining what the orders do or don’t do, instead characterizing them by numbers or failing to note the complexities altogether. This has and will only lead to more public distrust, when the policy outcomes don’t match the rhetoric. President Trump had a number of executive orders on “buying American” and now President Biden has one, too. Did any smart media source point out that United States treaties have the force of US law, so commitments made therein trump these orders? Did you know that any federal procurement over $182,000 USD (a paltry sum to the federal government) must be open to bids from twenty US allies under the Government Procurement Act? But it sounds good, no?

Executive orders appear to be a policy option which will be around for the near future. They can sound grand and be meaningless, or sound harmless and be far-reaching. They are simply a tool, and with all tools, over-reliance is a problem. As we used to say in the Army, if your only tool is an M1A1 tank, every problem looks like a target.