Fascisteria!

I’m writing this post safely from an undisclosed location outside the country. I never thought it would come to this. Jack-booted thugs patrolling the nation’s Capital. Marines occupying the City of Angels. More troops pouring in every day, and the White House threatening more cities. It’s only a matter of time before Trump pulls off the mask and announces martial law, and the end of our democracy.

Or not.

When you look at the litany from that first, overwrought paragraph, you see the problem. Exaggeration multiplied by fear to the point of irrationality. When President Biden deployed 4,000 active duty and National Guard troops to the border, he was chastised by both Democrats and Republicans. The former said he shouldn’t do it because Trump did, the latter because it was all a show (the GOP was correct in this case). The troops went to Red states. Nobody seriously called it an invasion by the federal government against his political opposition.

Trump deployed 5,000 National Guard troops and US Marines to Los Angeles. They prepared a defensive perimeter around several federal building that had been the scene of protests and some minor violence. The deployed elements cross-trained to accompany ICE and DEA on raids; their mission was (again) to provide a secure perimeter for the other federal agents as they completed their law enforcement operations. Was any of this necessary, and why?

Protection of federal buildings is first and foremost, the federal government’s responsibility. While state and local officials usually complete this role, the federal government retains the right to defend itself (period). Was the threat sufficient to justify the deployment? While you may think no, it’s not your decision; it’s the President’s. Why would ICE or the DEA need federal troops to provide security on raids? In California, state law prohibits state and local law enforcement from assisting ICE. If ICE coordinates with local law enforcement, someone leaks the impending raid, ending its effectiveness. And numerous civilian vigilantes track ICE and report on them, endangering their operations and officers. So yes, security is needed, and the force providing it must itself be secure from operational leaks.

Almost all the Marines and guards troops have left. There is a residual lawsuit by California against the Trump administration, but it will come to nought, perhaps by the US District Court judge in San Francisco, or later on appeal. Some fascist takeover.

The case in DC is even more ridiculous. There, the President has special authorities which make any lawsuit against his recent moves dead-on-arrival in court. The best the DC government could do was get the administration’s scheme to replace the police chief overruled by the courts, but the principle that the federal government can and has taken control of the metro police stands. All that legal kerfuffle was actually about one thing: the DC Council passed a rule prohibiting the DC metro police from cooperating with ICE (sound familiar?), and the police chief claimed she didn’t have to obey any federal edicts to the contrary. So the Trump administration tried to replace her, which they don’t have the authority to do. Now the Mayor has had to admit that the federalization of the Metro Police allows them to coordinate with ICE. End of that discussion.

What about the National Guard soldiers on the Mall? They’re doing the same sorts of things they did in Los Angeles: securing federal property or operations. The first tranche is the DC National Guard, so they know the area. In fact, the main Army unit in the DC Guard is a Military Police Battalion, so, you know, they might know a thing or two about crowd control, securing a perimeter, establishing checkpoints. At least I hope they do! Other deployed Guard units are logistics. With a bunch of federal agents and guard elements deploying, somebody has to provide food, fuel, bunks, etc. That is what a logistics unit does. So spare me also the “they’re losing their combat readiness” nonsense. They’re doing one of their military missions, on the fly, in a semi-hostile environment. Great training.

Was the crime rate in DC such that it justifies federalizing the Metro Police or deploying the National Guard and other federal officers? In whose eyes, with what data? There is a great discussion of the data at Substack’s Jeff-alytics here. You really should go there and read his work. The DC murder rate and carjackings are way down from their pandemic highs . . . but the DC rates are high among other US cities. The DC data on violent crimes is a mess. Look at this chart Jeff created:

There is a huge discrepancy in both the total and trend line direction between what DC posts on its pages and what it reports to the FBI! And there is no single good explanation for the difference. On top of that, there is a DC police union allegation of widespread data fraud in violent crime reporting. While it’s unproven at this point, I’m shocked (not really) that friends who tell me that unions are the bedrock of our society are quickly denying the union’s claims.

Fun with Numbers! Trump and the MAGA world claim crime is high in DC; the Resistance says it is dropping and less than it was 30 years ago. Both are correct. Let me explain, with an exceedingly absurd example. If DC suffered a million murders two years ago, then half a million last year, and a quarter million this year, the murder rate would indeed be dropping in a spectacular fashion. And crime would still be high. By the way, DC in the 1990s was the unofficial “murder capital.”

The bottom line? Crime is almost certainly down from pandemic highs, but still high for a major metropolitan area. And the data is at least suspect. Does that make DC unsafe? Should the nation’s capital be more or less safe than Portland, Oregon? San Francisco, California? It’s a value judgment. I have friends who assure me they felt completely safe in DC before the Trump administration moves. I have other friends who said things were getting out of control.

When Governor Hochul deployed nearly one-thousand national guard personnel into just the New York City transit system, there were only a few raving lunatics calling it an invasion. She admitted subway crime was actually down, but there were high profile and particularly unsettling crimes like people pushing others in front of subway trains. She acted, and things got better. In DC, crime too may be down. But there have been unsettling carjackings of government employees, muggings of Congressional staffers, even criminal assaults on members of Congress in their homes. And in DC, the President has constitutional prerogatives to take action, like the Governor did in New York City.

If you want to believe this is the Gestapo, or the beginning of a fascist dictatorship, or the “end of our democracy” (sic), that’s your right. You have no obligation to learn the facts, to understand the politics or the history, or to even be consistent. It’s a free Republic, after all.

Wait, did I hear a knock on the door?