I don’t know about you, but I welcome any respite from the political advertising I suffered even as an expat (via YouTube TV, snail mail, and spam-texting). So much money was wasted, but it seems there was always more to spend.
Despite my conservative outlook on life and politics, I’m really quite optimistic at the mid term election results. Mostly they went as I expected, but here are some not-so-hot takes on the results. See, many of the results were long obvious, although much of the current coverage misses the point.
The main issue in this election cycle was affordability. Whether you accept this as an issue or not, that’s what motivated voters. And what the voters did was punish the Trump administration in particular and Republicans in general, because during the 2024 cycle, they had promised to bring down prices. This was a ridiculous promise at the time; they had no plan to do so (reduce prices, that is). Perhaps Trump thought increasing oil production would drive down gas prices, which in turn would drive some prices down. But in the end, the economy doesn’t work that way. Oh, and tariffs did contribute some to some price increases, although this was always exaggerated. The average (over time and country) of Trump’s tariffs was something on the order of 13-17%, yet prices only rose 3-4%. Most of the increase was eaten by a combination of foreign producers, middlemen, and America retailers (for those interested, WalMart is a great example). But 3-4% MORE is very different than less, which is what Trump promised. And the voters noticed.
Related to that voter response was the growing trend of voters expressing a general dissatisfaction with whoever is in charge. There is a noticeable group of voters who voted (in succession) for Obama, Trump, Biden, Trump, and anybody-but-Trump. The only thing these votes had in common is they were against the administration in power. Voters claim the parties are not listening to them. That’s not really fair; they listen all the time. The problem is the voters want what they can’t have: more, bigger, better entitlements, less and fewer taxes. So the parties overpromise and underdeliver. This trend will be important to the 2028 Presidential election, since the Democratic majorities in the House and Senate have no effective agenda to address affordability. Trump will still be around to attract attention, but won’t be on the ballot, so who knows who gets blamed next cycle?
If you think I was being harsh about the Democratic affordability agenda, let’s review it. The party writ large has not published any agenda. A small coalition called the New Democrats has, but it involves rolling back tariffs, increasing the minimum wage, extending ObamaCare credits, re-allocating energy costs (?), paid family leave, tax cuts for working families, free universal pre-K, and cutting red tape for housing. For the Congressional Progressive Caucus, another small group, it includes capping childcare expenses (the government pays the rest), providing $20,000 to all first-time home buyers, corporate pricing controls (?!?) and an energy windfall tax on Big Oil. In both cases, there are a few useful ideas, many that won’t do anything, and some which will make the problems worse. And that’s not even starting to include the Democratic Socialists of America, whose agenda includes everything free: healthcare, education through college, and public transit, along with abolishing the private housing market. No, I am not kidding.
Little noticed in the election results was the morally- and effectively-correct tonic for gerrymandering. I opposed it when the GOP did it, and reminded the Democrats the correct response was not to engage in the same unethical behavior; two wrongs don’t make a right, but they didn’t listen. What happened to the GOP? When you pack Democratic voters into one district, and sprinkle the remainder in other previously-safe GOP districts, you dilute your majorities in many districts. Guess what? Lousy candidates or a wave election will mean you lose many more seats than you would have if you hadn’t gerrymandered! Democrats were the beneficiary this time, but if they don’t correct their own gerrymandering, they will suffer the same consequences.
Likewise, you may well have heard how the Trump administrations have worked to suppress voters they didn’t like (i.e., traditional Democratic voting groups like minorities, young women, etc). Remember Jim Crow 2.0, or the many claims about voter suppression in Georgia? Here’s a chart with national voter turn out:
Results for yesterday’s voting haven’t been tabulated yet, but preliminary data say it looks like more voters, not fewer.
So why exactly am I optimistic? First, the blue wave gives Democrats a real voice in Washington. One of the biggest challenges in the Trump era has been the unwillingness of Senate and House Republicans to act as anything but water-carriers for whatever Trump wants to do. That is not how the Founders envisioned the legislative branch behaving. The Democrats can re-present an independent voice, which is always a good thing. And better still, they do not have veto-proof majorities, so they can’t get too far off into absolute stupidity. No, wait, yes, they can, but then Trump can “veto-corleone” their worst ideas. And the frosting on this electoral cake is the DSA/Progressive membership has increased, but is not the complete basis of the working majority. One thing I really feared was a single-digit Democratic House majority wherein the Speaker had to rely on crazies like Darializa Avila Chevalier to pass legislation.
There were some mixed outcomes. The reprehensible Ken Paxton got the boot, but Michigan went for an officially anti-semitic Senator whom-I-shall-not-name. While it’s not final yet, Mary Peltola seems to have beaten the real Dan Sulllivan by less than the margin of votes given to two fake candidates propped up by the Peltola campaign. I envision her next challenger to be a woman with the official name “The Real Mary Peltola, (registered Democat), incumbent.” Just cuz.
One final reason I’m optimistic. Politics, as reasonable people know, is the art of compromise. If your opponent is the epitome of evil and you can’t possibly even talk to them, there is no room for compromise, so there is no room for politics, and no useful policies. The voters have given Trump and MAGA one final rebuke, and the Democrats one final opportunity. Make no mistakes who is on the hook and on the clock. If the new House and Senate majorities want to stop seeing Nazi salutes and hearing racist dog-whistles, I bet they will find someone willing to deal with them. How can I be so sure?
Whatever you think of Trump, he sees himself as the ultimate deal-maker. He wants to negotiate a big deal with anyone: Kim Jong-un? Sure. Putin? okay! Xi? Of course! Iran in the middle of a war? Why not? The man has few fixed values beyond self-aggrandizing, so he’s always available for a “good deal.” I used to joke that if the Democrats had half-a-brain, they would propose a National Health Care system called TrumpCare, and he would endorse it. America has numerous policy challenges that could do with bipartisan, all-of-government solutions. But you can’t get there if you can’t get past the past. Trump welcomes people who called him a Nazi, as long as they stop doing it; he made one his Vice President! Can the Democrats take up the challenge?
That said, they’ll have to deal with Trump’s mercurial nature, his willingness to reverse course (even on the truth), and his ubiquitous name-calling. It won’t be easy, because none of that is going to change, short of the ghost of Christmas Future visiting him in the White House (it never fails, that ghost). I grant those of you who think I’m being a “wide-eyed”optimist that past Democratic party behavior does not portend a reasonable change this time. But perhaps self-preservation might make a useful push in the right direction, too. The voters have taken turns blaming those in power, and given the Democrats almost everything they could want in mid term election results. That’s why they are on the clock and on the hook. Go crazy and impeach Trump again; give the GOP an early start on the Vance/Rubio presidential ticket! Re-embrace Woke 2.0 or DSA craziness and reap the whirlwind. Or tackle affordability on your own. Good luck with that!
There are some ominous rumblings. Presumptive Senate Majority Leader Schumer is up for re-election in 2028, and AOC may choose to contest his seat; that augurs for absolutely no compromise with the White House. Likewise, the incoming chair of the House Oversight Committee told Republicans to “lawyer up.” Now I’m all for investigations that address the abuses of the presidential pardon power and emoluments, congressional insider stock-trading, and Supreme Court disclosure and recusal. But if the Congress tries — in the words of Senator Slotkin — ‘to deter people from working for the administration,’ the answer is no. Even if you accept Senator Slotkin’s attempt to walk-back her comment, it was not an outlier. I just read this Washington Post editorial offering hope — like I do — for some political compromises. Read it, and then read the comments! Yes, I know, never read the comments. But there you will seek the rank-n-file of the Progressive movement figuratively braying for vengeance. Not a good sign. Yet they forget that Trump has shown no restraint in the use of pardons, and will no-doubt issue the largest, most-sweeping pardon EVER before he exits in 2029. So investigate for naught, if you will.
Speaking of the President, he said he wanted the people to vote as if he were on the ballot. He got his wish. The New York Times suggested for the upteenth time this was “the beginning of the end of Trumpism.” Which confirms my suspicion that if you predict something often enough, eventually you may be right. While there is no doubt the electorate overall repudiated MAGA, there is only a little data about MAGA voters so far. They may have opted out of voting due to tariffs or the Iran War, but whether they still support the President is unclear. MAGA was never a majority, and relied on other groups (mainly independents) to win. But even a blue tsunami may not shake MAGA’s reverence for Trump.
The next election cycle in 2028 includes the entire House, a third of the Senate, and of course the presidency. Also, it involves numerous state houses and governorships: people who will hold power when the 2030 census results are announced, moving ever more electoral votes from blue states into red states. I predict right now that whichever party moderates first will win a sweeping victory, one that might establish a working majority for decades. Americans are tired and fed up, and while the activist class on both sides just can’t get enough ICE raids or No-Kings rallies, the vast majority just wants a government that isn’t going broke, does care about them, and doesn’t bother them too much. It’s a race to being normal; whoever gets there first is a big winner, but America will be the biggest winner . . . or loser.