The Pros & a Con in Caracas

After much threatening and signalling, President Trump sent US military forces into Venezuela and arrested Nicolas Maduro, the man occupying the leadership position in the government there. He was a de facto, not de jure Presidente. For those unfamiliar with the terms, it means he was not the legitimate president (by law), but he did occupy the office. The Organization of American States did not recognize him. The United Nations (UN) recognized him as the de facto leader, while the UN Panel of Experts on election integrity found Maduro’s last election victory lacked “basic reliability.” Most impartial observers agree he lost the election.

Ostensibly, the administration conducted the operation to end Maduro’s facilitation of drug-trafficking, a claim that is much in doubt. There is no doubt he was a ruthless dictator, entirely corrupt, and a thug. Whether he actively ran a cartel or simply benefited from a cartel’s largess is the main sticking point, if that matters to you.

As I write this, the operation is less than twelve hours old, and as I like to remind folks, initial reports are often wrong. That hasn’t stopped many from hyperventilated critiques. Let’s start with the obvious one: did the US break international law? This may be technically true, but irrelevant. The UN Charter prohibits one nation from attacking another, with exceptions for self-defense and UN Security Council authorization. But there is no international enforcement mechanism recognized by the United States. There is the International Criminal Court (ICC) which can bring charges, but its status has been severely undermined by politicization, and the US does not recognize its authority anyway. While some will make a case that the US should be a beacon upholding international law, American leaders of all parties have routinely ignored the concept when American interests, or common sense, so directed.*

What about the War Powers Act? The War Powers Resolution of 1973 is a law, but its constitutionality has never been litigated before the Supreme Court. Why not? Because both sides fear they might lose. It stands as an informal agreement between the Executive and Legislative branches, regardless of which political party holds what offices (or even when they’re all the same partisan side!). The law requires “consultation in every possible instance” with the Congress before a military action. You don’t need to be Harvard Law-trained to see the loopholes in the vague words “consultation” and “possible.” Who in Congress must be “consulted,” and how many? Consultation is not the same as permission, is it? Does an emergency or operational secrecy undermine what’s “possible?” Presidents of both parties have interpreted this language to pretty much do as they please. After the attack, the law requires the President to notify the Congress of “the necessity, the legal authority, and the estimated scope of the conflict” within forty-eight hours. Presidents have taken to issuing a bland statement that the action taken “is consistent with” the resolution. There is also a sixty-day deadline to withdraw troops if the Congress hasn’t authorized the operation, but it too has had no effect, since Congress doesn’t want to be responsible for military casualties pursuant to a withdrawal they ordered. Long story short, neither side really cares about the War Powers Act, and neither should you.

What if all this goes wrong? Some will cite the esteemed Prussian military strategist Carl von Clausewitz to remind those who engage in frivolous war that it often backfires. They are right to do so. Venezuela could descend into a mess. But Clausewitzian uncertainty cuts both ways: war can also go well. Carter’s Tehran hostage rescue effort turned into a debacle; many pundits predicted a US strike on Iran’s nuclear program would send the entire region into a conflagration, but . . . crickets. The duly-elected leader of Venezuela may emerge from hiding and come to power, or not. We can definitely say this: Maduro is no longer the thug-in-chief. If you’re not celebrating that fact, ask yourself “why?”

What if there were a precedent? On the same date thirty-six years earlier, US military forces captured Panamanian leader Manuel Noriega under the orders of President George H.W. Bush. Noriega was a corrupt thug who had trafficked with drug cartels. He suggested he might get cozy with Russia or China or Cuba. He was the de facto leader, and his chosen puppet as Presidente did not win the election fairly. We arrested him, tried him, sentenced him. Here are some of the reactions from Democratic leaders at the time:

• Speaker of the House Tom Foley said Noriega had engaged in “reckless incitement” and went on to say that when US forces are in the field, it is not the time for debate.
• Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell supported the action.
• Then Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee Les Aspin said, “Finally, at last!”
• Senator Chris Dodd called the US action “legitimate” while Senator Alan Cranston said “the White House has done too little for too long.”
• Then-Representative Dick Durbin suggested it should have happened sooner.
• Representative Dave McCurdy cited Bush’s “wimp factor” and wondered why he waited to remove Noriega.
• Jesse Jackson and others called it a violation of international law and “gunboat diplomacy.”

Don’t take from this that I wholeheartedly support the action to take-down Maduro. It’s a judgment call and the final results aren’t in. We may say–like a football referee–after further review, not so much a good idea. But the reflexive backing into partisan corners? Ridiculous. In Iraq, we took down Saddam Hussein and tried to create a democracy. Bad idea. In Panama, we just lanced the boil (a near-perfect metaphor for the human pineapple, Manuel Noriega), and it went well. No one knows where this one will fit along the spectrum, so those proclaiming its immorality or stupidity are showing a lack of careful thought.

What should we make of this? First, the US military has the capability to snatch a foreign leader who is already on notice. That’s no small thing. It’s one thing to pinpoint target a bomb on a location a la Qasem Soleimani. Taking one out alive in one piece? Priceless. Others will take notice.

Second, Trump’s ad libbing about a “Don-roe” doctrine has some teeth. You never know with Trump when he’s talking off the top of his head, but that may be the point. When it comes to the Western Hemisphere, he clearly believes he has the authority to act, not just talk. Others have already noticed.

Third, perhaps it’s best to consider what’s happening from an American national security perspective, not a MAGA or resistance one. Oh, sorry about that last one, it’s the wide-eyed optimist in me!

*For examples, Reagan arming the Contras in Nicaragua (1986), Bush (Sr.) deposing Noriega (1990), Clinton bombing Yugoslavia in 1999, Bush (Jr.) invading Iraq (2003), Obama intervening in Libya (2011). And that’s just the greatest hits!