I considered using “for Dummies” in the title but didn’t, because it’s a copyright and my friends simply aren’t dummies. After President Trump’s daring raid to capture Nicolas Maduro, I found myself in many online exchanges, only a few of which were interesting. I won’t bore you with all the details. Let’s just say some people can’t get past the notion “if Trump did it, it’s immoral, illegal, and doomed to failure.” As I said, not very interesting. But another point did pique my interest: a suggestion that I undervalued the international rule-of-law. That’s worthy of discussion.
The international rule-of-law is a global state of affairs where countries agree there are norms which they will abide by and not break when convenient. Throughout history, it has been the exception, not the rule. It greatly benefits the establishment of peace between nations and furthers business and travel. It’s generally good for everybody, except for peoples or nations who believe the system hasn’t worked for them, and therefore they don’t want to obey the rules.
The Pax Romana (Roman Peace) was an early example of such a system. Within the empire, subjugated peoples/nations had greater degrees of autonomy as long as they acquiesced to Rome’s oversight, adopted Rome’s state religion (which was pantheistic and broadened to incorporate their gods), and acknowledged the divinity and leadership of Caesar. As brutal and unfair as the Pax Romana was, no one was able to create another such system until Napoleon came on the scene.
As a result of the challenge presented by Napoleon’s (mass conscripted) Grande Armée and overthrow of established monarchies, the nations which exiled him decided to build a lasting peace in Europe around a set of international norms. Known as the Concert of Europe , it lasted almost one-hundred years. The major European powers generally avoided interstate conflict and suppressed the spread of revolutionary movements, creating the conditions for peace and stability. Sadly, the Concert met its end when technological advances and a rising Germany set off the Great War.
Immediately after that war, and spurred on by the internationalism of American president Woodrow Wilson, Europe tried to recreate a new set of norms based in the League of Nations. Military forces were constrained, unprovoked attacks outlawed, and diplomacy ensconced as the way to keep the peace. Alas, there were too many aggrieved countries (Germany again, now Italy & Japan) and too many extremist, expansionist ideologies (fascism, communism, racist imperialism). British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain wasn’t a stupid man; he just thought that under the rules-based international order he thought was in effect, his Munich agreement would keep Hitler in check. World War II was the result.
After that war, the United States parlayed its massive economic, military, and political power into a new system designed to create a modern-day Pax Americana. The US insisted on the global judicial trial of the war’s criminals, the forerunner of the International Criminal Court. It sponsored the United Nations and built a series of defensive alliances to protect against Communist subversion. And it created a series of global financial and trade regulations designed to foster free-and-fair trade. All this was not American largess: it was a system to create the conditions whereby the international rule-of-law made life freer, fairer, and more conducive to America’s view of how the world should be. America greatly benefited from this system, but so did other nations. Even the Soviet Union, which had little taste for the American system, found itself playing by American rules. No better example exists then when the Soviets walked out of the UN to protest an American effort to stop the seating of Communist China. The Soviet’s absence permitted the Security Council to give the US military mission to defend South Korea a UN imprimatur, meaning that to this day the defense of South Korea against North Korea exists under a UN flag (including Russia, China, and even North Korea!).
Why this history lesson? Some folks think that history is a one-way ratchet, always progressing toward more peaceful, more just outcomes. When it comes to the international rule-of-law, history is more cyclic: sometimes it works, mostly it fails. The Pax Americana was immensely successful from 1945 to the 1990s. Its ultimate exemplar was the global response to Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait. But soon after, the consensus started to crack. Countries started to use the system, gaming it, or even flat out ignoring it. And those nations who still respected the system did not stay united to defend it.
The signs of this change were everywhere. Russia was clearly a rejectionist power. Under Putin, they acted to reject one international norm after another. They brutally suppressed insurgencies, hired out mercenary forces, conducted lethal attacks on dissidents in other lands, and ignored sanctions. I contend that the best date for the absolute end of the Pax Americana is 2014, when Putin invaded and occupied Ukraine’s Crimea Peninsula, to nothing more than diplomatic hand-slaps. The rest of the sad tale of the war in Ukraine is all tied directly to that event.
China played along with the game, but undermined it with relish. Recall it was the Chinese who demonstrated their willingness to ignore international outrage in 1989 when they massacred the protesters in Tienanmen Square. They agreed to join the international economic system, only to undermine it by unfair trade practices, state-supports, currency manipulation, extortionary lending, and pirating intellectual property rights. They remained respectful of military norms just until they were powerful enough to bully within their sphere of influence.
And the list includes states which sponsored terrorism as a political art, those that poisoned international groups like the UN Human Rights Commission, and those who simply shirked their obligations for defense or national security. In the end, an international rule-of-law order is only as good as those committed to maintaining it. And sometime in the last twenty years, the Pax Americana went away. To be clear, I am not celebrating the fact. I would much rather have a world still defined by international rule-of-law. But it is naive-bordering-on-negligent to suggest we still live in one, and must therefore abide by its rules.
Another history lesson. Franklin Delano Roosevelt clearly recognized that the nascent League of Nations had failed, and the world had reverted to a Hobbesian condition where might would define right. FDR went boldly about breaking all the rules–domestically and internationally–to support the floundering allied war effort. He ignored the international rule of law as it was defined at the time, “leasing” ships, planes, and even bases to a combatant during a conflict. He extended loans without authorization. He authorized US forces to engage hostile raiders at sea. None of this was legal under international law, but it was necessary, and he was right to do it. Not because he was a tyrant, or bent on getting involved in a world war, but because he correctly understood the nature of the international environment.
Now somewhere out there a friend is throwing his hands up, asking, “so we’re supposed to just let Trump invade Greenland next?!?” NO, No, no. Recognizing we aren’t in an international rule-of-law order is not carte blanche to behave like petty dictators ourselves. But it does require the US (and you, mis amigos) to think about how we respond. If you heard that an angry mob was headed to your children’s school, you wouldn’t accept the idea the Principal sent out the adolescent crossing guards to stop them. You would want the police on hand, if not the National Guard. Laws generally stop those who are law-abiding. It doesn’t mean the laws are irrelevant, it just means you have to assess whether you live in a law-abiding or law-breaking world. And act accordingly.
With respect to Venezuela, the Biden Administration had a US$ 25 million dollar bounty for the capture of Maduro. Was that just theater, not law? I might have missed where those objecting to his capture were protesting the bounty. Or are they only objecting to success?
Finally, I long for a world where respect for the international rule-of-law is restored. Today’s world is not it. Yes, that world will be ushered in by states like the US who recommit to its order. I pray I live long enough to see it. But pretending we still live in that world now? That indeed would be “for dummies.”
“What about international law?” a relative asked. “What about it,” I responded. “The violator will suffer no consequences unless approved, likely enforced, by the U.S.” I too would prefer utopia, but Hobbes was right, we are a world of brutes. Sadly, the Athenians were also right when they said, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” A clear-eyed understanding of power can bring about stability and even hope.
Bravo! Another good read!