For a moment, set aside the moral arguments that it’s wrong for a big, powerful country to simply take territory from a weaker one. Several Catholic Cardinals in the United States have adequately delineated that argument. Set aside, too, the political arguments that it is short-sighted to antagonize one’s friends simply to acquire something which is essentially already under one’s control. Many European leaders have pointed this out. What about the strategic argument that the continent-sized island called Greenland, an autonomous constituent country within the Kingdom of Denmark, is essential to the future and even present security of the United States of America?
Let me be clear: there is no rationale for the strategic argument, either. None. Zilch. Nada. Get out your brooms and let’s take a whack at that strategic straw-man.
First, Greenland sits atop the world, astride the sea lanes which are gradually becoming free of ice as the globe warms. This new sea route, the famed “Northwest Passage” which European adventurers searched for in vain during the period of the 15th-19th Century, would greatly shorten the trade/sea-travel time between Europe and Asia. Forgotten is the fact that this same maniacal quest cost many lives and in the end made no difference, a point moderns might want to recall. Doesn’t the control of sea lanes equate to strategic dominance?
While there is an argument to be made in favor of strategic sea power, it’s not the 1600s any more. One can’t wait for the Spanish Treasure Fleet and steal all the wealth of the New World (alas). Trade routes are useful as long as they remain free. Here’s the little secret: The United States doesn’t need this route, as we have shorter routes to both Europe and Asia. It’s important to Europe, important to China, and would be important to Russia if they ever make anything anybody wants to trade for. The great American naval strategist Alfred Thayer Mahan was quite correct for his time (19th Century). Some things have since changed.
Back in the day, Henry Kissinger was asked about the strategic importance of the nation of Chile. He responded, “Chile is a dagger pointed at the heart of Antarctica.” When I hear about Greenland’s alleged strategic value, I wonder what Henry would have thought.
Fear & Loathing in Penguin land
What if it’s not all about trade, but defense? Okay, let’s go there. Who are we defending against? Neither Russia nor China has any ability to project land forces into Greenland, nor could they sustain them if they did. If they landed, they would quickly become the world’s largest voluntary prisoner-of-war camp, and a miserable one at that. Basing air forces there is even more out of the question for either. And while there are some ice-free ports available, by themselves they don’t control anything. Greenland is part of the famous GIUK gap, a naval defense and warning line that runs between Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom. But the US and NATO have controlled this path for half a century, and have laid the sensors to even track (Russian) submarines that dare to pass through.
Missiles and missile defense, that’s the reason! The US and Canada have established a missile tracking capacity in this region since the first Soviet ICBMs were fielded in 1959; it’s still there, still working. One of our key bases is the former “Thule” (pronounced Too-ley) base, now Pituffik Space Base. Under full US control. If we needed to put more radars or missiles in, we may do so. Now.
Which leads to another observation: under the 1951 US-Danish treaty governing the defense of Greenland, the US can pretty much move any military forces it wants to Greenland, simply by notifying the Danes and the Kalaallit (Greenlanders, as they call themselves). No prior approval necessary. If President Trump foresaw an immediate threat, he could deploy as many forces as he desired, in full compliance with US treaty obligations. So let’s put the whole “strategic threat” argument to bed. There is no threat, and if there were, we could respond immediately as we wished.
Maybe it’s about strategic minerals? Greenland has many unexploited mineral reserves, so that is tempting. And they have some rare earth minerals, which the US and the West crave for advanced computer electronics, but the available supply of which is currently under China’s control. So ask yourself this: if these rare earth minerals are so valuable, why hasn’t anybody exploited them in Greenland? Several reasons! First, rare earth minerals aren’t “rare” at all: they’re everywhere! They are called rare because unlike gold or silver or copper, they aren’t found in dense, exploitable veins. One basically scoops up megatons of dirt and refines it with several caustic, expensive chemical processes (which are environmentally destructive) to get usable rare earths. Second, Greenland’s minerals lie deep under an ice sheath, so first you have to drill through that before you can start scooping. Oh, and third, there are no roads and no infrastructure where the minerals are. So despite having some valuable minerals, mining Greenland is about as logistically challenging as mining the moon. Except there’s also those pesky locals who don’t want their pristine Arctic wilderness to look like West Virginia (no offense to any Mountaineers out there!).
We are rapidly running out of reasons to take Greenland. Perhaps we should trust the President when he was asked this question, point blank: Why does the United States need to own Greenland? “Because that’s what I feel is psychologically needed for success.” He even texted the Norwegian Prime Minister that, in light of his Nobel Peace Prize snub, he saw no reason to “think purely of Peace.” You have to admire the man for saying the quiet part out loud. He wants it, period.
Now there’s nothing crazy about seeing Greenland as potentially important (if not strategically vital). The United States has been after it for some time. President James Monroe’s eponymous doctrine explicitly included Greenland, since it lies in the Western Hemisphere. Andrew Johnson considered buying it, Woodrow Wilson offered to trade for it, Harry S Truman made a formal purchase offer. After Truman, the Danes got tired of all the US interest and negotiated the 1951 treaty which gives America vast and exclusive rights in the land. They thought that ended the issue. Until President Trump came along.
Perhaps he’s trying to burnish his legacy. Perhaps he’s flush with the (very real) success of taking down Maduro and “running” Venezuela. Perhaps he’s reverting to his real estate developer mindset and looking for a signature deal. Whatever deep-seated need he’s trying to address, it is not one of America’s vital national interests. I trust cooler heads to prevail, and some compromise agreement to be inked which papers over the very real differences. But Trump is still looking for a signature “win,” something he can claim and market and slap his name (metaphorically) on in history. So this won’t be the first, nor last, crisis like this.