Get Vaccinated (against stupidity)

What to believe about Covid vaccinations? Here’s some common sense (with authoritative links) to avoid senseless politicizing and help you make an informed decision.

Was the development of the coronavirus vaccines rushed? If by rushed, do you mean they cut corners, then the answer is no. They did take a process that usually happens sequentially and ran it in parallel, which accounts for the unprecedented speed of completion. Vaccines are usually produced in small test batches, then tested for safety (side effects?). After a vaccine passes that test, another small batch is produced and tested for efficacy (does it work?) Then the results are sent to the federal government for review, and the government also reviews and approves the production process. In the case of the coronavirus vaccines, the full human trials were done simultaneously, and the government insured the pharmaceutical companies from liability. It also immediately reviewed the initial production process, approved and authorized full-scale production, and guaranteed to reimburse the companies by either buying the vaccine (if it worked) or paying their costs (if it failed). It was potentially an expensive proposition for the government, but a worthwhile bet nonetheless.

Some of the vaccines (Pfizer & Moderna) use messenger RNA (mRNA). Is this an unproven technology? Health professionals have been working on mRNA vaccines for almost thirty years, doing clinical trials and injecting this technology into people, so the technology is not new. The problem has been that they hadn’t developed a single successful vaccine, as either other treatments looked more promising (for HIV/AIDS, for example) or the disease threat disappeared (as in MERS and SARS) before they could complete the vaccine development process. The exciting thing this time is it worked and in time! Why is that important? Up to this point, vaccines used either a live virus, a dead virus, or an attenuated virus. The common word: virus. One of the bugaboos of the anti-vaxxer movement was the (true-but-irrelevant) claim they were injecting the disease into you! With mRNA, there is no form of the virus injected into you. This could prove to be a promising new treatment for a variety of diseases.

What about the claim an mRNA vaccine could affect my DNA? As soon as people hear RNA or DNA, they get concerned, as we all learned DNA is the “building block of life” and messing with it can be tragic. I heard a great explanation of why you shouldn’t worry from Natasha Loder, the health policy editor at The Economist, and it goes like this: the whole purpose of DNA is to create proteins that in turn make life possible (make blood cells, repair neurons, reproduce, everything). DNA does this by generating messenger RNA, little temporary messages that tell cells what proteins to make. So DNA is like a record album on your old phonograph, and mRNA is like the musical notes coming our of the speaker. The notes play and then they are gone. When your immune systems “hears” the notes from the mRNA, it “remembers the tune” and learns how to protect from the virus. Can the song you hear “change” the record playing it? Nope. An mRNA vaccine is also potentially a great response to virus mutation, since the mRNA in the vaccine can be more easily changed to deal with mutations.

Why is the United States failing at its vaccination program? Define failing. Here’s the most recent data on vaccinations:

Why does this NOT look like failure?

The US is currently in 5th place worldwide, and the only large country ahead of the US is the UK. Our vaccination rate is three times higher than the EU or Canada, and six times higher than China. The world leader is Israel, which has advantages in small population, small geographic size, and a national health system set up for imminent emergency (i.e. wartime) function. That, and they don’t count Palestinians in territory under Israeli control. Still lessons to be learned, for sure, but the numbers don’t lie.

The Biden administration has announced plans to give one-hundred million inoculations in its first one-hundred days. Since we achieved the ability to inoculate one million a day before the inauguration, we should easily meet and surpass this goal.

Did the Trump administration have a vaccine plan or not? At one point, President-elect Biden said “There is no detailed plan that we’ve seen, anyway, as to how you get the vaccine out of a container, into an injection syringe, into somebody’s arm.” An unidentified senior Biden administration official said “There is nothing for us to rework. We are going to have to build everything from scratch.” In response, Dr. Anthony Fauci said “We’re certainly not starting from scratch, because there is activity going on in the distribution.” So the plan did exist, and involved the complex distribution of difficult-to-transport vaccines across the country to medical providers for injection. The task of putting needles in arms was left for the States and health professionals. Who would you prefer do it?

Why? First, the initial vaccines approved have these unique transport requirements; when Johnson & Johnson’s one-shot vaccine is soon approved, it can be easily shipped, making large-scale movement and storage possible. Second, no country is undertaking mass, indiscriminant inoculation. For example, the US CDC recommended sending the limited vaccines to healthcare workers and the elderly. Setting up even a hundred large inoculation sites would not have addressed this target population, which is all over the country and not easily moved to such sites. Medical staff can’t take time off to wait in line, the elderly aren’t mobile. So a slower start was inevitable, but remember, our overall numbers are still strong. Third, there is no federal health infrastructure to help with this problem: no doctors, no nurses, no lists of same. The federal government did help speed the vaccine, and is distributing it. They could have provided more resources to States and medical providers, but that would not have changed the results much. Why not?

What are the factors slowing the vaccination program? First and foremost, the pandemic! Hospitals and staffs are overwhelmed just when we need them to conduct the vaccinations. State governments are experiencing the same problems they attribute to the federal government, as inspectors aren’t available, employees are remote, resources are strapped. If this was all on the federal response, we would expect to see almost all delivered vaccines to be injected by States. States are averaging using less than fifty percent of their received inoculations! Second, the combination of the difficult storage and transport requirements bouncing up against vaccine resistance. Even medical professionals are reporting between fifteen and fifty percent of their ranks refusing the vaccine, so only about sixteen percent of the initial target population has been vaccinated. Medical staffs include doctors, nurses and a large cadre of less-skilled professionals, many of whom are people of color. These latter groups are especially skeptical of government safety claims and were also affected by irresponsible pre-election claims about “Trump’s vaccine.” If someone says no, there isn’t always someone else eligible for that shot right away. At best, vaccinations are delayed; at worst, vaccines spoil. Third, there are no magic wands to increase production or distribution. As I explained before when discussing Covid testing, these processes are not ones you can ramp up easily using the Defense Production act. The pharmaceutical companies can’t outsource their controlled vaccine production to, oh, say, beer bottlers, and even if they could, would you want them to? The Biden administration has directed the mass production of a syringe which permits more Pfizer doses per syringe than the current one, but take note: Pfizer has agreed to provide the US a set number of doses, so they will send less vaccine if we are using these syringes!

The US state leading the vaccination charge? West Virginia. Yes, a state with lousy health care, poor infrastructure, and an older/sicker/widely dispersed population is succeeding. Why? They skipped participating in the big federal program, worked with local independent pharmacies/doctors/hospitals (whom they know), and used their National Guard (under State, not federal direction) to manage the process. Instead of whining and pointing the finger of blame, they are getting the job done. Their only complaint? They would like more vaccine, please.

There is a role for large federally-run vaccination sites as the number of vaccines and doses increases and the eligibility pool does too. It will be interesting to watch how the federal government runs this effort. Vaccinations are not rocket science, but they do require some training and some medical staff on hand; from where will they come? Stay tuned!

Should you get a Covid vaccine? This of course is the sixty-four million dollar question. In general, yes. All the vaccines out there (even the Russian and Chinese ones) appear to be safe, although some (the Russian and Chinese ones) have limited efficacy (may not work so well). Even then, some immunity is better than nothing. The more vulnerable you are to serious illness or death from the coronavirus, the greater your need to get vaccinated. Of course consult your doctor, especially if you have a history of severe allergic reactions. We still don’t know whether the vaccine prevents you from being infectious (as opposed to being sick), so even once vaccinated you may still face requirements for masking, social distancing, and testing for public activities. Scientists are gathering data establishing protection from infectivity, so those precautions may be temporary for the inoculated.

Like everything else during this pandemic, getting inoculated is a personal call assessing risk versus gain. Take it seriously, get expert medical advice, and don’t judge others who decide otherwise.

Part Three: Domestic Tranquility

In part one I tried to make people understand the difficulties inherent in the interaction between police and protesters as the latter suddenly changes from a protest to a mob to a riot. In part two I attempted to show that while nearly everyone agrees violence (and its incitement) is wrong, it’s hard to describe when the threshold is crossed. Historically, the United States government treats such violence as a crime, not a national security threat (for good reasons justified by the exceptions to the rule). In part three, I’ll cover the really difficult area: how we get back to normal!

“We, the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure (sic) domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution of the United State of America.”

Preamble, US Constitution

Man, could we use some domestic tranquility now! I want to distinguish further two different approaches to the way forward: one centering on punishment, and the other focusing on mercy. For shorthand, the punishment approach I’ll call Reno after US Attorney General Janet Reno, for her decision to end the Waco hostage crisis, and the mercy approach I’ll call Lincoln, for the President’s views on how to deal with the former Confederates. I mean no disrespect to AG Reno, as the DOJ after action report supports her decision. It is not about being right, it’s about going forward and living together.

On November 3rd, 2020, over seventy-four million Americans voted to support a second term for President Donald Trump. Despite receiving the second most votes in American Presidential election history, he lost by seven million popular votes and seventy-four electoral votes. The challenges posed by counting vastly increased mail-in ballots led many to believe President Trump was “ahead” when night fell, but behind in the days that followed. This effect was predicted (called a “red mirage”). In reality, there is no “ahead” nor “behind” in an election; the counting is a process that has no result until it is completed. Our fixation on immediately knowing how the vote counting is proceeding (why? Who absolutely HAS to know who wins on election night?) birthed a myth of a stolen election, a myth which has failed to deploy a single significant piece of supporting evidence.

On January 6th, 2021, tens of thousands of Trump supporters attended a rally in support of this myth. They came in organized groups from all over the country: supported and transported as at every large Washington, DC event. They fervently believed their leader, who incited them to march to the Capitol, where he hoped their presence would intimidate the Vice President, Senators, and Representatives into not certifying Mr. Biden’s victory. Several thousand marchers did so. The protest and the rally march were entirely legal. Yes, they were misguided, but legal. Included in the larger group of protesters were smaller groups which openly planned to conduct violence and occupy the Capitol. This was never legal.

At the outer barriers of the Capitol, protesters overwhelmed police lines and surged forward toward the Capitol building, breaking the law as they broke the lines. While data is incomplete, it appears somewhere between three and five hundred violently fought their way into the Capitol and occupied it for several hours before being allowed to evacuate.

To summarize, tens of millions supported, tens of thousands rallied, thousands marched, and hundreds assaulted.

Take any large protest movement in US history, and you’ll find the same story. Abolition? Yes. Civil Rights? Yes. Prohibition and Repeal? Yes. Women’s Suffrage? Yes. Vietnam war? Yes. Black Lives Matter? Yes. The numbers and percentages vary, but the results remain the same. Any mass movement has protests, and protests beget mobs, and mobs riot and commit violence. And even peaceful movements have splinter associations or opportunists who agree with the ends but not the means, choosing violence as a necessary tool. Even the Capitol as a target is not unique, if you’re familiar with the 1968 riots or the 1954 Puerto Rican pro-independence assault.

No, I’m not comparing the boneheads who smeared feces in the Capitol to the Mothers Against Police Brutality. My point? We have been through this before, and notwithstanding the talking heads trying to rile you up, we’ve been through worse. The treachery at the Capitol was certainly no worse than that of the civil war. The violence less than that of a single day in 1968. The planning less than several thwarted terrorist attacks. It was ugly and unconscionable, but not unprecedented.

One thing that was different was the President called for the rally and intended it to intimidate the electoral process. For that, he merits impeachment, conviction, and disqualification from future federal office (as I already opined).

But what of the movement, the rally goers, the marchers, and the rioters? Nothing has changed for them: they still cling to the myth. Where do we go from here? Braying influencers use the most extreme rhetoric: for treason, death; for insurrection, ten years. Justice demands punishment, but how much and to whom? The interest of domestic tranquility suggests something less harsh.

Here is where the Reno versus Lincoln debate arrives. I propose a Lincolnian approach:

Can’t find a pic with a MAGA hat?

For the millions who believe the election was stolen: they did nothing wrong. They were misled, but that is not a crime. They are no more liable than anyone who has said “Hands up, don’t shoot!” the last six years (no, it didn’t happen, according to some guy named Eric Holder). The incoming President should establish a bipartisan commission to investigate the results of the last two elections (myth-making goes both ways) and demonstrate how the outcomes came to be mistakenly characterized as illegitimate (2016) and a steal (2020). Will this convince everyone? No, but some percentage will look at the results and say: enough. And that’s worth another commission (and I HATE Washington commissions!).

For the tens of thousands attending the rally: nothing. Most knew no more beforehand than anyone else. But for those few speaking at the rally: public censure. Perhaps by the Congress, but certainly by all of us. When you are asked to whip up a crowd, you take responsibility for your remarks, and some of the speeches I have heard appear to be over the line. I don’t want the government prosecuting such speech, but we should all shun it: shame is a neglected part of our repertoire these days.

For those who marched to the Capitol: mostly nothing. This was permitted, and one would have to determine who knew about and overran the perimeters: a daunting task, but one worth attempting. If the authorities can figure it out, charge them with trespassing on federal property.

But for those hundreds who entered the Capitol building: charges of trespassing/unlawful entry/vandalism/theft and the like for every single one of them. And unless they can prove a claim of false identification (several already have), conviction and punishment.

For the subset who evidenced planning for violence, or committed any single act of violence (and there is ample video): prosecution to the full extent of the law for the specific offense. Not treason, not insurrection: felony assault, attempted murder, whatever. In Federal Court.

Now the pièce de résistance (oddly apt in this case), President Biden should offer a conditional pardon to anyone charged above (Lincoln & Johnson did the same). It should include as conditions: publicly accepting blame for the crimes; publicly admitting that the election was not stolen; publicly forswearing any further violence against the US government; and publicly proclaiming the Pledge of Allegiance. It should also be limited to the day of the riot, leaving those who planned for violence beforehand still at risk.

Do those things, and be welcomed back. Do them not, and accept justice.

We don’t need to exaggerate what happened. We do need to be specific about what was legal (a rally) and what was illegal (violence). I have said this from the beginning of the Trump administration: we must consciously avoid lowering the bar (for our behavior and norms), weakening our freedoms (Speech? Assembly?), diluting our system or compromising our laws (Insurrection? Treason? Really?). In response to our debaser-in-chief, so many have opted to debase themselves. This must stop now.

Finally, how to address the lingering discontent. President Trump didn’t cause this, he exploited it while exacerbating it. Much like we were told to treat the Black Lives Matter movement as a wake up call, I suggest we do the same with the nearly violent disquiet among the working classes. Many people seized on Trump as a candidate because they felt he was authentic, he heard them, he was looking out for them. They followed him on Twitter and watched Fox News or OAN because it was the only place they saw or heard anything like their own views. I guarantee that calling all of them white supremacists (remember: seventy-four million!) and banning them from publicly-available, privately-held media will not help the situation, especially when the terms of service being cited are regularly violated by others with impunity.

I don’t like the idea of the federal government regulating private media (FaceBook, Twitter and the like). But some means must be sought to ensure these private media services act justly and not stigmatize one side. If violence is the standard, apply it equally (not exceptions for those I like). If incitement is the standard, apply that equally. Or the federal government could simply remove these companies liability protection and let the courts work it out.

I do know this: the solution to ignorance is not stupidity, but education. The solution to bad speech is more speech, not banned speech. It is axiomatic in the therapeutic professions that “talking it out” works, while keeping it all bottled up doesn’t. Go full Reno: call them traitors, charge the with treason, fire them from jobs, hound them from social media. Sow the wind and reap the whirlwind.

Another idea: after the 2000 Florida election debacle, news media voluntarily agreed not to call state election results until all the polls were closed in said state. This was a responsible act, but not enough. I think now the media need to revisit the “Super Bowl” style coverage of election night: Given the possibilities of election challenges and voting irregularities, perhaps we don’t need the media to call elections at all. Perhaps coverage, even exit polls, without specific calls for some cooling off period of days.

President Biden intends to call for unity and comity: I say A-men. But it is easy to be nice to those we like, those with whom we agree. Understanding the other, being magnanimous with an opponent: that’s the salve to our nation’s wounds.

Part Two: Domestic Security

If you watch the news, read a paper, or just surf online, you’ll see people bandy about terms like “coup” or “insurrection” or “treason” or “rebellion”. Some have no idea what they’re talking about, while others have as much or more experience in these issues as I do (thirty-eight years, to be exact). I continue to disagree even with the latter group for one simple reason: while they make studious and serious cases for such language, their reasoning is driven by their emotions, rather than having their emotions prompted by their reasoning. Let me explain.

In these United States, we traditionally treat violence directed at any lawful authority (federal, state, local, tribal or territorial) as a criminal matter, NOT as a national security matter. Even after 9/11, we only unified disparate elements into a Department of Homeland Security to improve information sharing amongst the various border and air/sea port authorities and with non-federal authorities. The FBI retained investigative authority against federal crimes (less counterfeiting and threats to the President et al, which belong to the US Secret Service in DHS).

Why in the wake of the worst terror attack in US history did this remain the case? Because we place such value on individual liberty and freedom of speech that we chose NOT to infringe them even under threat of tremendous assault. You remain free to think the most vile, phobic, sexist, racist thoughts you can imagine. You can even gather together (really or virtually) and share those disgusting thoughts and comments with others. Up to the point you plan violence or take a specific act, you remain free. Even if your target was the US government.

A short digression, if I may. I worked the domestic security issue at DHS in 2010, when a certain Faisal Shahzad attempted to set off a car-bomb in Times Square. He was a naturalized US citizen born in Pakistan who was married, had children, owned a house, had a job and was completing a Master’s degree. He traveled to Pakistan once, where he had family. He was self-radicalized, although we later learned he had attended a bomb-making school while in Pakistan. After the 9/11 attacks, a friend heard him say “they had it coming.” That was it. Ten years later, the first truly obvious illegal thing he did was double park an SUV full of explosives in Time Square. This was the risk we accepted, even after 9/11.

We treated it as a crime, and we never turned the elaborate, powerful US Intelligence Community apparatus against the domestic threat. Why? US intelligence could no doubt gather the information to determine all kinds of nefarious intentions domestically. But it would also gather reams of information that represented nothing more than citizens exercising their constitutional rights. The cost to liberty was simply too high a price to pay for effectiveness against this threat.

“Yes, yes,” I hear you think, “but this Capitol Hill assault was a direct attack on our system of government!” and you are correct. But what was the civil war, if not such an attack? And no southerners were ever executed for treason, and its leaders weren’t even tried for it. Lincoln and later Johnson pardoned most accused of these and related crimes, despite the fact they had taken up arms and violated oaths. Even northerners who sided with the Confederacy generally ended up with leniency.

If we invoke national security language like coup or legal terms like treason or insurrection we change the rules of the game. The former calls into play the Intelligence Community or the US military, and no sane American should want that: I can tell you that many intelligence and military professionals would quit rather than comply. The latter lower the bar to crimes which should remain rarely–if ever–charged. The Insurrection act is triggered solely by the President in cases when “unlawful obstructions, combinations, or assemblages, or rebellion against the authority of the United States, make it impracticable to enforce the laws of the United States” and allows him to deploy the military (Posse Comitatus notwithstanding!) to handle it. Yikes! People want to use these terms because they are upset and want to make a statement, but this is bad policy. Why would anyone want to set a new, lower standard for such crimes, knowing that someday it will be used against others?

One final story about domestic security to pull it all together. There are groups in the United States who disavow the legitimacy of the federal government: Sovereign Citizens comes to mind. They don’t pay federal taxes, they resist even traffic citations, they seize government buildings and assault government officers. All the time. All over the country. Most of the members of this movement are harmless followers who don’t follow through, but there are violent activist members, too. If there ever was a group eligible for charging under some of these terms, they are it. These are not right-wing nuts or left-wing nuts, these people are just plain nuts. Yet we let them go, only charging them with tax evasion or fining them or imprisoning them if they conduct a violent attack. Why?

Back in 1993, a man named David Koresh led a cult-like commune called the Branch Davidians in Waco, Texas. His outlandish behavior and alleged abuse of children brought him to the attention of Texas authorities who could not substantiate any charges. Eventually, Texas got the US Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms (USBATF) involved due to suspicions about weapons at the Davidian compound. When USBATF raided it, a firefight ensued and four federal agents (and six Davidians) were killed. This brought the FBI into the case, as the death of federal agents is a federal crime. The FBI under Attorney General Janet Reno laid siege to the compound for fifty-one days, then, attempted to force them out using tear gas and a US Army combat engineer vehicle. The compound caught fire (probably set by the Davidians), and seventy-nine Davidians (including twenty-one children) died.

But that was not the end of the story. You see, a young man named Timothy McVeigh was a protester outside the siege. He had no interest in the Davidians or their cult, but he was pro-gun rights, and the ensuing violence left him a changed man bent on revenge. Two years later, he got his vengeance by blowing up the Alfred P. Murrah Federal building in Oklahoma City on the anniversary of the Waco fire.

Waco wasn’t handled in a routine criminal way. The US government created martyrs at Waco, and reaped the result. It is important to note that the rightness or wrongness of what the government did was irrelevant.

The question before each of us is simple: do you want righteous vengeance or domestic tranquility? You can not have both.

Part One: Domestic Violence

Trying to get my head around the recent events at the Capitol, and fend off some poorly-thought out commentary from the national media, I kept circling around three related issues: how we view violent groups of Americans, how law enforcement and the national security apparatus approaches them, and how the media plays a role. I have labelled these three topics as domestic violence, domestic security, and domestic tranquility. In addressing all three, I will note similarities and differences in each case, but I do so to highlight the larger phenomena: please spare me comments like “you can’t compare the brave BLM members who were brutalized by police to the white supremacists in the Capitol” or the reverse. If you don’t understand how to compare such things without making a value judgment about the rightness or wrongness of the causes, stop reading now and retreat to the safety of your Twitter/Parler feed.

The phrase domestic violence is traditionally used to refer to violence within a couple or family. I find it appropriate here because the larger problem is an American cultural one: our American family is at war with itself. Much like a family, we all take sides and vilify the other. Much like a family, there is a little truth and a lot of hyperbole on both sides. Your large rally with a small riot at the end is ‘the inevitable and understandable cry against injustice’ while mine is ‘racist hate-filled mobs bent on white supremacy.’ And vice versa. Both sides may be correct, and neither may be.

Protests and mobs and riots are peculiar things, made up of many people with disparate intentions. That they act coherently at all is something odd in itself. If you have ever been among a group of fans, chanting and screaming for your team and against the other side (or the refs, or God), you had a small taste of the phenomenon. A protest is simply a group expressing a point of view. When the protest becomes agitated, it starts to turn into a mob. At some point, someone moves from agitation to an act of violence, and the mob becomes a riot, where otherwise reasonable people do violent, unreasonable things. Once the riot has begun, it must burn itself out: either through time, or at the point of police force. Ever ask why rioters burn down their own neighborhood? Because once the riot begins, reason goes out the window. Police force is not always the correct response: at a certain point, rioters stop fearing for their own safety and even deadly force does not deter them.

Sometimes a large police presence deters the mob, other times it incites. Sometimes an arrest halts the violence, sometimes it worsens it. This is a tricky matter, made more so by the fact every protest/mob/riot is different.

But one thing we all, as Americans, can agree on is that until violence happens, the rioters-to-be are simply an angry mob (or even just protesters) practicing their constitutional right to assemble and seek redress of grievances. Perhaps the problem is becoming clearer now. No one can tell when or if the line of violence will be crossed, and yet the police must be prepared in every case, and that preparation may be the spark. Tricky indeed. To borrow a line from A Few Good Men,: “I suggest you pick up a weapon, and stand a post.”

Colonel Nathan Jessup: usually wrong, always entertaining

But let’s not leave it that simple. Remember, the mob and the riot have their own will. Imagine yourself on the police line: When they turn off the approved protest route, are they heading to attack a target, or just lost? The guy carrying a fire extinguisher: is he putting out little blazes that break out, or will he hit me in the noggin with it? Somebody is spraying a mist at me: is it acid (a deadly attack) or urine (just disgusting). There’s a bag flying over my head: a Molotov cocktail or loose stool? (In case you’re wondering, these are all real examples.) In all these cases, people have to make split second decisions between good and bad intentions, legal and illegal acts, violent or just gross behavior. It goes both ways: the face hidden behind the visor with a badge–good cop or racist waiting to crash in my skull with a baton? What do I do when the police line says stop but the people behind me push forward? Why can’t we get a little closer to make ourselves heard? Why is my voice stifled?

For opinion-makers, it’s all so clear-cut tweeting out your outrage and sharing your disturbing allegations, but at the point of attack, it is very murky. Hucksters on all sides inflame the true-believers and repeat the cycle. And our family rift goes on.

Other than deploring violence, there is another area where almost everyone agrees: that those who specifically incite violence deserve more serious sanction. But even there the consensus is illusory. What is incitement to violence? The Supreme Court has held that the act or language must be imminent and likely to cause violence. Thus no one can use something I say today as justification a year from now for a violent act and blame me. Likewise, if I post to no one in particular “the Governor has to go,” my statement is unlikely to cause any specific act (even if by some chance someone did attack a Governor). And the words themselves are tricky; which of the following is an incitement:

  • “freedom is never voluntarily given by the oppressor, it must be demanded by the oppressed”
  • “justice that law gives is a punishment.”
  • “where justice is denied, . . . neither persons nor property will be safe.”
  • “It’s only a matter of time, justice is coming.”

The first is the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. The second is Mahatma Gandhi, the third is Frederick Douglas, and the last is Jacob Chansley, aka the QAnon Shaman, in a note he left for Vice President Pence.

Clear as mud. I invited you into this morass to show that when one takes off their ideological blinders, it is much more difficult to pontificate. We are making snap judgments (“I know that look on his face” was a famous one about a teenager that cost several media outlets millions of dollars) about people we don’t know, spurred on by sources we don’t always check for bias.

And it’s not innocent, for reasons I’ll explain in parts two and three.

Meanwhile, mom and dad are at each other’s throats.

This Time

I was against the initial attempt by the House of Representatives to impeach President Trump. I was against it because it was a convenient excuse (a “Pleiku” as I explained). The Democratic Party wanted to impeach the President from the day of his election, and finally settled upon an excuse to do so. It was an ill-fated attempt (one Speaker Pelosi even initially opposed) and one that came to the impotent end it merited.

What is happening today is different. First, let’s remove the emotional aspects of this case. This impeachment is not about removing the President from office. It will barely affect his term. It is also not about the President’s claimed lapse into unreality. He has always believed what he wants, nothing has changed there. Nor is it about his finger on the nuclear trigger. Some may be excused for not knowing this, but Speaker Pelosi does, so she bears responsibility for the hysteria she engendered: there is an entire system involved in nuclear release. It is not a button to be pushed. There are messages, codes, things that must be ascertained and confirmed. The system is designed to allow the President to respond in the case of a surprise nuclear attack. In the absence of indications of inbound missiles, it does not allow the President to launch, willy-nilly.

This NOT how we do it! (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

So what is this about? Since his surprise (to him) election loss, President Trump has been in engaging in a slow-motion autogolpe (tip of the hat to Ken Copeland for reminding me of the word!), which is a Latin American term for when the leader attempts to retain power through non-legal means. The President began his opposition to the election results legally, but after losing lawsuit after lawsuit, he began seeking and supporting other means.

What happened at the Capitol was the culmination of those efforts. First, a legally permissible rally on the Mall followed by march to the Capitol building, which quickly descended into a riot and occupation. I have watched more video of the event that I care to admit, and it resembles every riot I have ever watched. Yes, there are people making specific threats against specific people, but they are screaming out as groups run and wander all about. In the end, all were allowed to leave, and they did so. Some coup. Law enforcement should treat this as the dangerous riot it was, nothing more but nothing less.

But this was no normal Congressional day. The President called for the rally, and spoke at the rally, and incited the rally members toward the Capitol to intimidate the only activity underway there: the counting and certifying of the electoral college results, finalizing the victory of Joe Biden. Did he specifically call for violence? No, but that is irrelevant. He organized the rally, fired up the rally goers, and sought to pressure the electoral certification. While there was very little chance of this scheme working in any real sense, the very act itself was an affront to the notions of the peaceful transfer of power all Americans should hold dear.

This President has routinely broken norms, and rarely if ever acknowledges any limits that should restrict his behavior. But there are norms and then there are rules, and he broke both. For the latter, he should be charged with impeachment by the House of Representatives and found guilty by the Senate. Most importantly, he should be banned from further federal public office, not only making an example of him but also removing the danger of another Trump candidacy. Perhaps the Republican Party can seize the opportunity to rediscover its moral bearings.

One final point: I still strongly oppose invoking the 25th Amendment. That law was introduced to cover the eventuality of an incapacitated President, not the removal of one who has behaved poorly or even illegally. The former is solved by an election; the latter is reserved for impeachment. The discussion of the 25th Amendment is one that should only be conducted in private among the principals involved (the Vice President, the Cabinet) to compare notes about disability, not bandied about by the Speaker of the House. As I have said before: we must avoid setting new, ill-advised precedents in response to the Trump presidency. Mark my words: having just elected a seventy-eight year old man to the presidency, we’ll hear more about invoking the 25th Amendment in the next four years!

15 seconds of fame

After our recent visit to the States for early Thanksgiving, I saw an interesting e-mail in my queue. The missive claimed to be from a staffer for Peter Greenberg, the travel editor for CBS News. The staffer, Anthony, introduced himself and mentioned Peter was coming to Jalisco to film an upcoming segment. One part of the segment would cover Lake Chapala, and one part of that would be about the curious phenomenon of expats living there. Anthony had discovered my blog (Thanks, Google!) and “would I like to be part of an interview for the segment?”

Being the suspicious sort by nature and training, I googled all the names, offices and shows mentioned. They all checked out as described, so I said “yes.”

Anthony asked for suggestions for “things to do” as part of the interview. We’re a sleepy little village, so this was a challenge. I suggested meeting in the plaza for coffee, walking along the malecon, or a short hike up to the little chapel overlooking the town. All three provided some local color and good backgrounds. At first he accepted the idea of the hike, but after reviewing the route, it was too much for the camera operators, so he countered with a bike ride. I was skeptical: our streets are narrow and cobblestone: hardly conducive to a car-mounted camera or a smooth riding experience. So we agree to ride along the malecon.

As the day of the filming approached, the times and details kept changing. First it was midday, then 7:00 AM, before we finally settled on 11:00 AM. My dear wife–being even more suspicious then I am–kept suggesting this was some kind of a scam: “perhaps to get us out of the house so it could be burgled.” As I said, thirty-eight years of being exposed to my suspicion, added to her own native mistrust, is a powerful mix! “No,” I replied, “it’s just television.” I had a few dealings with televised media back in my work days, and I recalled how spur-of-the-moment it all was. “This shot doesn’t work, let’s go somewhere else” or “ohh, look at that background!” And since the schedule is so tight, the crew literally arrives, makes instant choices, films, and moves on.

For this shoot, Peter Greenberg arrived that morning, having flown red-eye from Spain via New York and Los Angeles. They came to Chapala in the early morning hours to do some bass fishing on the lake, and now we headed to the malecon for our segment. The crew amounted to about twelve people: Peter and his wife, some assistants, Gordon (the director), camera and sound operators, and some Tapatios (from Guadalajara) who were doing all the local coordination (transport, renting the bikes, meals, etc.). Gordon the director told me my part was simple: ‘what the hell are you doing here, what do you know that we don’t, and should we all be here?’

We proceeded to mic/mike up and test the equipment. People were walking around during the beautiful December day, so we did a test ride among the passers-by, then chose a leg further along (past the Ajijic sign) to start filming. We rode along–in turn–under a drone, behind a go-pro camera mounted on a bike, and past shoulder-mounted camera men. Peter and I rehashed the same story each time: how I learned about Lake Chapala, what was its draw, and why we lived here. At times, the crew just wanted the visuals, so we talked politics or travel and gestured towards nothing in particular as they filmed. By about two in the afternoon, the crew conferred and decided they had the right mix of audio and visual to do a segment. As Peter told me, “four hours of work for forty seconds of air.”

Peter and the crew were very kind and appreciative of my agreeing to the interview. For my part, I took my cues from Peter or Gordon. When speaking, I tried to be crisp, concise, and clever. Whether I succeeded or not remains to be seen. What did I say? Well, you’ll have to watch to find that out. When I have the details of the appearance (probably in January) I’ll provide an update.

They were off to Guadalajara, then Tequila, before finishing in Puerto Vallarta. Looks to me to be a Jalisco promo, which is not surprising. Many of the things Americans think of when they think “Mexico” are in fact from Jalisco: Mariachis and Tequila come to mind. Peter mentioned he and his wife were headed to Turkey next. I asked him, as a member of the US Travel Hall of Leaders, did it (travel) ever get old? He said, “no, as long as there is something new to learn, something new to experience.”

Peter & Pat, after the shoot

Waste not, want not

You may have heard that the US Congress passed (and the President signed into law) a series of massive spending bills, which included government funding for the rest of the fiscal year and additional Covid-related relief. As is usually the case in DC, the bills also included funding for a variety of special interests and pet projects. But the one which garnered the most outrage was a provision for a $10 million dollar study of gender in Pakistan, at a time many American students are not in school, their parents are not employed, and the families are looking at a measly $600 (each) bump.

“Why?” so many asked, with much anger and justification. And they deserve an answer. Foreign aid is always a touchy subject in the US, as we have so many things on which we need to spend domestically. Polls show Americans think the federal government spends about 25% of its revenue on foreign aid; the actual figure is 1%. We spend about .2% of Gross National Product, putting us behind almost all other rich nations in such giving, yet we’re still the largest donor in terms of total amount.

“Ok, ok, it’s still a lot of money, and why now, when Americans are hurting? And why to a country like Pakistan that is arguably not even much of an ally?” Well, that takes a history lesson, and one which is rich in irony with respect to foreign aid.

Way back in the 1970s, the US and Pakistan were close allies, as the US sided with the Pakistanis against their bigger, bitter rival India. When the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, the relationship deepened, as we funneled aid through Pakistan to the mujaheddin making life impossible for the Russians in the Hindu Kush. We also tried to aid the development of a more democratic, liberal Pakistan by funding schools and clinics and the like. This wasn’t much money: it doesn’t cost much to put up a concrete building, buy some tables and books, and pay a teacher there. But who wants to vote money for their schools over say, the ones in West Virginia? So we found an alternative: another Muslim country with close ties to Pakistan that had unlimited funding: Saudi Arabia.

The House of Saud was more than willing to fund education in Pakistan. These madrassas (religious schools) excluded girls and taught the fundamentalist Wahhabi version of Islam popular in Saudi Arabia. Pakistan and Afghanistan were once considered among the most liberal Muslim states, but all that changed. Graduates of the madrassas spread throughout the region, which in turn led Pakistan and Afghanistan to become the fertile home of Al Qaeda (the base), the secure enclave from which they planned, and to which they retreated after, the 9-11 attacks.

Now those nations are rife with anti-American, fundamentalist Islamist thought. Pakistan has determined that its Saudi-funded madrassas are a problem, and wants to fix it. America is cautiously engaging with the notion of how to recover a lost generation of Pakistanis, to change their way of thinking and remove the possibility of those countries ever being a base for terrorism again. Rather than throw money at the problem, the US government is studying what to do, so as not to repeat the mistakes of the past.

That’s the $10 million dollar study you heard about. It amounts to what the US government spends every minute. It pales in comparison to the costs of 9-11. Maybe it’s still a waste of money. Maybe someone in charge will make the study focus on gender neutral pronouns in Urdu. Maybe it won’t uncover anything useful. Educated people can disagree about this. But see how one can take any budget item out of context and make it look ridiculous? And there are many real cases of fraud,waste and abuse: ever see a bridge to nowhere built because Congressman Snodgrass wanted it? So people are right to question any budget item, but don’t fall for the easy targets and remember there is always someone out there trying to outrage you.

I’ll end with another cautionary foreign aid story. Once upon a time, the US sent doctors to developing nations to train local medical professionals in how to treat infectious diseases. We bore the costs of such programs, making the training and advice free to the other nations. We did so out of charity and out of self-interest: diseases arrested there don’t spread here. One such nation was China. China became a more developed nation, but what we began in charity we continued in self-interest.

Except Chinese-American relations hit the skids, and we decided to end the program. We pulled out our liaison from the Chinese CDC. In early 2019, we took our doctors out of the training site at the regional medical center in some city named Wuhan. We didn’t end the program because it was too expensive or China wouldn’t pay for it; we just decided cancelling it was a low-cost way to show we were angry. You know how that story ends.

First World Problems

In case you’re unfamiliar with the phrase, it captures the challenges which seem very troublesome to you as a member of a WEIRD (Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, Democratic) country, but those that at the same time pale in comparison to the rest of the world trying to find enough to eat, not get arrested by the corrupt police, or being extorted by some criminal gang. A quintessential First World Problem is when your high speed internet connection sputters. The indignity! How will you survive?

We had such a problem revolving around out stove. Seems we had a builder’s grade stove that was nearing nine years old and starting to show its wear and tear. Buttons were broken, stains resisted cleaning, and it never worked that well anyway. Estufas (stoves) are not as big a deal in Mexico, so what we had was serviceable, but just. Some models require a match to ignite; others don’t have much insulation. We have friends whose stove heats their counter-top and cabinets to scalding, but doesn’t keep a consistent temperature in the oven! In Mexico, you basically have a choice between GE/Whirlpool, Koblenz, and Mabe. All three producce models across the price spectrum, but Whirlpool skews highest, then Koblenz, then Mabe which has the cheapest models. The knock on Mabe (“Mah-bay”) is ‘mahbay they work, mahbay they don’t.’

So we decided to replace our old stove. It was set up on a small concrete pedestal (very common here), and we wanted a regular model which could slide in (and give us a warmer/storage drawer underneath). Judy, being the online maven she is, cleverly waited until the Buen Fin (Mexico’s answer to Black Friday) sales began and ordered a stove with a microwave/vent above it from Costco.

That’s when the fun began. First, FedEx–who delivers to us almost weekly–dropped us a text saying they couldn’t find our house to deliver the microwave so they sent it back to the Costco warehouse in Mexico City. Arghhhh. Judy contacted Costco, and they were polite and quick in refunding that part of the purchase, but they declined to let us re-purchase the microwave at the special discount price as that sale period was over. “No problema,” we thought, we’ll just find another microwave/vent combination locally.

Shortly thereafter FedEx resumed knowing our location and delivered the stove. We opened the box and saw various loose pieces like knobs (which are detachable) and the burners and grill, but things seemed to be in order. We contacted our contractor, who was doing a series of small projects at our place, to remove our old stove and arrange installation.

Because of the change in style, the workers had to hammer out the the existing concrete base, level it, then place matching tile. They did a quick and great job, and we looked to be close to completion, when the worker told me “hay un probelma” which is Spanish for “Houston, we have a problem.” Seems that one of the detachable knobs on the stove was not just detached, but was broken off the valve stem (not easily fixed). *Sigh* We stopped work on the installation while Judy worked her way through Costco customer service (no, there is no “por inlges, toca numero dos” option). She eventually found a Costco rep and worked out the details, sending them pictures of the broken knob. He said he would arrange for a FedEx pickup, but that it might be a while since this was the holiday season.

Now we’re in a pickle. Our old stove is gone, our new stove is sitting in the hallway, unusable. Which meant it was something new and not in the right place. Which meant that my fifteen year-old dog, who likes to get up in the middle of the night and get a drink, lost it when he saw this huge, threatening shape in front of him in the dark. At least he got used to it, and my heart rate eventually returned to normal.

Looks very scary at night, if you’re a dog, and you’re old . . . apparently!

Did I mention there is a worldwide appliance shortage. Wait, what? You didn’t know; neither did we! Seems all the disruptions in parts and work schedules has caused a shortage in appliance manufacturing. We decided to go the local appliance store (Tio Sam’s . . . yes, Uncle Sam’s, or as my Mexican gate guard calls it, Uncle Tom’s, which made me do a double-take) and start over. We had already gone there once to get the new microwave, so when we returned to buy a stove we were thrilled when then told us they had a model we liked available and could have it shipped immediately, arriving with the previously scheduled microwave. Hallelujah! Only a week or so without a stove.

But wait, there’s more. Delivery day arrived, and so did our microwave/vent. But no stove. Tio Sam’s called to apologize for the mix-up. There was no immediately available model, but they would have one available (wait for it) the third week of January. More like a month+ without a stove. We told them we would come in to the store in the morning and work something out.

We went in committed to buying a different model (whatever was available) or getting a refund and starting over again. They still had nothing available, so we went for the latter (refund) option. Suddenly, they found our model again, and said it would arrive tomorrow. Willing to fall for the mañana joke one more time, we went home and waited.

Tio Sam’s called to confirm a delivery time the next day (yesterday). The correct model showed up, intact, and our workmen rushed over to install it. So our stove drought ended after ten days, although we still need to get the microwave/vent installed. Mañana.

Looks good! Guess which sticker was hardest to remove?

Merry Christmas to all, and to all a Feliz Navidad!

Happy New Year!

Sorry for the belated greetings!

“Belated?!?” you ask, “aren’t you a little early?” No, not at all. See, the liturgical year began with start of Advent on November 29th, hence my apology.

“But I’m not Catholic” you might object. Never-mind! God keeps time in His Own Way, and if I had wished you blessings for Diwali or Hanukkah, would you have objected? Of course not!

And who doesn’t want to see 2020 go, even if it means adopting a Catholic calendar for a few weeks? Our Annus Horribilis is one for the record books, and in all the wrong ways. But I don’t want you to focus on that. I want you to focus on something positive: what’s ahead.

Which is Death. Wait, wait, hang on here, I’m absolutely positive we’re all heading toward death. So much so, I’d wager on it, but you (or I) would not be around to pay (or collect) if either of us won (or lost). Not death from the Coronavirus, thanks to Big Pharma, but death nonetheless.

Why be so morbid, during this festive Christmas season, with a vaccine being distributed and the quarantines and masks and restrictions all within sight of the finish line? Well, I ask you, what was the point of 2020? If you believe in God, you’ve got ‘some splainin” to do’ (cue Ricky to Lucy). Divine Punishment? Only He knows. An Act of Man gone awry? Possibly. Poor choices by many? Absolutely. I don’t know what God’s plan in all of this was, but I do know that however it started and spread, He will use it to His Own Ends.

But let’s keep it personal, shall we? Do you know anybody who was unaffected by the pandemic? Me neither. Some harshly, some (like me and my family) only a little, but everybody felt the effects. What was the lesson we were supposed to learn? If this was a once-in-a-lifetime critical event, how should we process it, and what does it mean for how we live?

Many thinkers are producing analyses of how our pandemic experiences will change the world. They often focus on the notion that it will primarily accelerate trends already underway; that is a strong bet, and one I plan to write more about next year. But if the effects of this virus are limited to more screen time, online shopping, work-from-home and telemedicine, or less commuting, fewer handshakes, and no cruise ships, we will lose an opportunity.

We all faced the possibility of serious illness or death for ourselves, those we love, our friends and even casual acquaintances. We lost simple pleasures like eating out or going to events. We were prohibited from traveling, limited to when and where we could shop or gather to pray, forced to mask and rinse and provide our body temperature on demand. What did you learn? What did you miss, and why? How will you live in the future? What will you commit to do differently as a result? We are quick to point out the failings of governments and leaders, and such criticism may be warranted, but will we turn that critical eye on ourselves?

2020 was the year we want to forget, but the year’s lessons must not be lost as well. So take a few moments as we prepare for a New Year, take stock, and ponder how you will be different after the pandemic. Faced with loss of freedom or even loss of life, what did you learn? There’s a resolution worth keeping!

How little we know

Another in my (endless) series about the coronavirus.

I still see articles and social media stories about ‘how bad the US is doing with Covid’, complete with graphs designed to set your hair on fire.

Game on! Here’s one such chart:

Big countries all, right? You probably already guessed what’s wrong with this one: it compares a country trying to (and mostly getting) good data–the US–with several similar countries where no one believes their data.

Let’s try that again with “good data” countries:

Hmmmmm, not much better

OMG! We are the worst. I call this stunt “fun with data.” Here’s another version, using data that is displayed on a logarithmic scale, adjusted for population size, comparing the US and EU and ignoring a small island nation no one visits (I’m looking at you, New Zealand. More people cross the US border in two days than visit the Kiwis in a year!):

Well, well, well . . .

What you are witnessing is data convergence, which is the phenomenon that occurs when a natural event plays out over time. In plain English, some (even very large) initial differences gradually disappear over time.

Heard of the unique experiment in Sweden over their policies? Here’s the latest data:

More convergence

Wait, you’ll say, but don’t government policies matter? Yes, but mostly in degree and for a time. Note the similarity between the data tends for deaths in these disparate countries/Unions, despite very different policies/situations:

Complicated, no?

If you want to see something really interesting, look at the data for Japan. They have a large population and were a hub of international travel. They also were one of the first to confront the pandemic based on the cruise ship Diamond Princess which pulled into Yokohama harbor full of coronavirus.

The Japanese government had a big disadvantage: the world’s most elderly and therefore (according to the WHO and CDC) vulnerable population. They also had one huge advantage: a compliant population accustomed to wearing masks. They intensely studied the Diamond Princess affair and concluded airborne transmission was probable even if it was not the main source of spread. They further decided that the main variables in spread were close contact, closed spaces, and crowded places. They initiated an educational campaign called the Three C’s so everyone understood what the problem was, why it was important, and what they (the public) were supposed to do.

They never quarantined their entire society. They did not mandate mask wearing. They do not (still) do mass testing (less than 10% of the testing done in America). Theaters remain open but socially distant. The mass transit system runs full with open windows. Schools reopened in June with staggered schedules. Sports are played with spectators (no cheering, social distancing in the stands). There are no legal limits beyond the governmental and cultural exhortation to avoid the three C’s. How has that worked out?

Despite greater vulnerability, amazing results

Are their lessons universal? No. Are they applicable? Yes. When we blindly close schools, or restaurants, or churches without regard to activity or size, we are not following the data (ie., the science). Likewise, when we ignore social-distancing or mask wearing, we are ignoring obvious answers to the problem. Both are critical. The first because no society can long endure excessive quarantining, loss of income, or loss of human contact. People went out during the great plagues of Medieval Europe, for God’s sake! The second because these are small-but-helpful measures that buy time and mutually protect us, whether they are foolproof or not.

I’m not nearly as tired of the lockdown as I am of the politicized use of data and specious counter-arguments. Yes, you need to wear a mask and stand apart. No, it doesn’t solve everything; only a vaccine does, and yes, the vaccine is safe and effective and you need to take it. No, we could not save hundreds of thousands of people who were vulnerable due to obesity and illness and some genetic combination which Covid uniquely targeted: we could play for time, but given the vaccine took almost a year (under a miraculous scenario which we engineered), we were going to lose them. No, it it is not useful to compare a globally connected, large, heterodox nation like the United States to small islands or geographically-isolated, homogeneous countries. Do I have to explain why?

Here’s a way to reconsider the pandemic by comparing it to another natural phenomenon to put it into perspective: earthquakes. They happen. Actually, they happen almost everywhere. People die. Sometimes they happen somewhere regularly, and people become used to them, and their governments prepare for them. Sometimes the preparations are so good that most quakes don’t kill people or destroy things. But even then, sometimes major earthquakes still happen, things fall down, and people still die. Sometimes earthquakes don’t happen for a long time, then suddenly reappear, and they are catastrophic. Know when/where the largest earthquake was recorded in the continental United States (i.e., lower 48)? New Madrid, Missouri, in 1812. So large it moved the Mississippi river hundreds of meters. That one goes off again? Bad things will happen. Some will blame the government for not being prepared, and maybe more should be done. But really?

Every country has made serious mistakes facing this crisis. No medical entity or public health body has covered itself in glory. Some mistakes were worse than others (personally, not quickly quarantining eldercare facilities was among the worst, and it happened in such diverse places as Germany, Sweden, and New York State) and some were avoidable (the early US debate over wearing masks, for example). Some results were not reproducible: not every nation is a remote island, nor does everybody have Africa’s remarkably young demographics. I’m willing to bet the historical record of Covid-19 will not focus on the spread or mortality (neither of which were impressive by historical standards), nor on government actions (which were all over the place) but rather on the speed of the vaccine development, which broke all records while maintaining necessary safeguards. That was truly remarkable.

*As a footnote, if you EVER want to look at Covid data, you MUST go to the Financial Times website here, which allows you to do the kind of comparisons I made above. It is the best website and most tailor-able data display available.