Category: Commentary

The Two-State Solution is the holy grail of Mideast politics: a way to solve the unending Arab-Israeli conflict by creating a “Palestinian”* state aside the existing Jewish state of Israel. It was the original UN plan for the partition of the region, but was rejected by the Arab countries and peoples. That was only the first time it failed. There were several other attempts, and every time the sides got close, extremists intervened (Jewish extremists assassinated their Prime Minister, Arab extremists provoked widespread violence) to undermine progress.

Despite this long history, western politicians and experts continue to insist the Two-State Solution is the only way to achieve peace. Even after the October 7th terrorist attack, some people continue to support the notion. While Israel is closely divided on politics in pro- and anti-Netanyahu camps, almost nobody there favors a Two-State Solution now. Let me provide an analogy to which Americans can relate.

For our hypothetical situation, let’s change the events of 9/11 to more closely resemble that of 10/7. Imagine a group of highly-organized, Native American terrorists working across several reservations staged the attack. They took down one of the twin towers with a plane and occupied other buildings. During the ensuing stand-off, they filmed hostages begging for their lives before cutting their throats. Eventually, American military units stormed the buildings, but some terrorists escaped with hostages, returning to the reservations.

Then imagine people citing the long history of American mistreatment of Native Americans, justifying the attacks. Accepting the progressive critique of how “Indians” were treated (I don’t, but . . .), it easily surpasses anything the Jews have done to the Palestinians. After all, the Native population in America is a tiny percentage of what it once was, while the Palestinian population has grown five-fold since 1948. (Note: Next time someone says Gaza and the West Bank are prisons or concentration camps, ask them when has anybody ever seen a concentration camp which had a natural population increase of 500%?) Now imagine even more people, especially people outside the United States, calling on America to set the reservations free as independent nations. How would Americans feel about this “Two-State Solution”? I’m inclined to think we might have seen the third use of nuclear weapons, myself.

In a previous post (Gaza Delenda Est), I called for eliminating Hamas and removing the Palestinian people from Gaza (remember, you heard it first here!). Many of my astute friends pointed out the extreme challenges to this approach– which I acknowledge–and those challenges remain. I will note that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have done much (but not all) of the required military work, and both Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump had mooted the same idea (removing the Palestinians). I suggest the Overton window (a concept that says the range of acceptable opinion on anything is a variable which can be moved) has changed.

But none of that addresses the larger problem of Palestinian statehood. There has never been a real Palestinian state, and now there never will be. Nobody wants the Palestinian people. When the Romans exiled the Jews from their homeland, the Jews became wildly successful expats throughout the empire (much to their eventual chagrin, as it made them convenient scapegoats, too). When the Palestinians suffered their Nakba (“catastrophe”), or exile, they became a corrosive force everywhere they went. The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) went to Lebanon, upset its delicate ethnic and religious balance, and Beirut went from being the “Paris of the Mideast” to a poster-child for desolation. The PLO then moved to Tunisia and created more havoc. Palestinian refugees went to Jordan and almost overthrew the monarchy. They went to Egypt and had to be forcibly suppressed. And they stayed in Israeli-occupied areas and fought, and fought, and fought.

Worst of all, they gave control of Gaza to Hamas, a move which Israel tacitly accepted, a major mistake by Netanyahu. He thought Hamas was happy to be perfromative against Israel, launching some missiles, conducting some raids, living the good life while corrupting UN aid and building tunnels that no Palestinian civilian could ever use as bomb shelters. Netanyahu and the IDF focused on Iran and Hezbollah, which is why the October 7th attack was such a success (and why the war with Iran is, too). But most importantly, Gaza under Hamas was a precursor: the Palestinians had, for all intents and purposes, a state. When they did, they turned it into a corrupt terrorist base. Where is the evidence that would ever change?

Israel cannot accept incorporating the West Bank, because to do so would very soon make Jews a minority in Israel. They can’t go on forever as an occupying power either. Eventually they will have to grant some successor regime in the West Bank limited autonomy. Such a regime will by necessity need to be not only demilitarized, but completely disarmed., and it will (also of necessity) exist at the sufferance of Israel. It will not be a normal state, because the people have not demonstrated any ability to act as one. Yes, they’ll vote for their leaders, create their own internal rules, and police themselves. No, they won’t vote in the United Nations, conduct foreign policy, or have any authority over the Jews who live amongst them (in some cases) or surround them.

Every act of violence, every new bit of evidence of the corruption and terror Hamas wrought, re-sets the timeline for eventual peace. And only after a prolonged period of peace is the prospect of a Palestinian mini-state even a possibility. Few people reading this (even the youngest) will ever live to see it, and it will only happen when those same Palestinians give up their dreams of reclaiming the country from the Jews.

Palestinians had a state for moments in 1948; they launched an invasion and lost it. They had a territory in 1994, and used it for corruption and terrorism (two intifadas). They had an enclave (Gaza) which freely elected a terrorist organization. How many times does the Two State Solution have to fail?

*I choose to initially refer to the terms Palestine/Palestinian within quotations marks to denote my belief using such terms denotes a reality that does not exist. The people living there are, and always have been in modern times, Arabs. I only use the marks the first time in any blog, to make the point, and afterwards use without further comment. I believe any nation should be able to determine how they are labelled. People from the United States are “Americans,” not United States-ians, because we choose to be called Americans.

Usually, social media nonsense runs off me like water off a soldier’s poncho. But this time, it forced me to summon my inner soldier. Be forewarned: this post may contain flashing anger, strong language, smokin’ rhetoric, but no nudity. At least I think not.

There is a specter haunting DC. A threat so terrible it must be stopped. A crime against all that is holy, humane, and intelligent. It is wasteful of time and money, unnecessary, and potentially damaging to our delicate infrastructure. It is a birthday celebration. And a parade.

On June 14th, the US Army is going to celebrate its 250th anniversary. It’s going to have a big parade in Washington, DC. Army leaders love parades; soldiers don’t. I know. As a onetime cadet and alum of the “long, gray line,” I participated in more parades than most any other soldier (short of the Old Guard at Arlington). We paraded twice a week, sometimes three times when Saturday seemed like too much of a day-off. And I hated all of it: the getting ready, the practice parades, the occasional mid-parade rainstorm, the cold north wind blowing down the Hudson river, the sunburn on one’s exposed ears. I still have “too late/not ready” dreams about West Point parades, as my subconscious seeks something about which to stress.

I hated all the parades, but one. I got “awarded” to march in President Reagan’s inaugural parade (depicted above). The reward was a heavily-policed bus ride to a barracks in Virginia, locked in for a night so we couldn’t commit any misdemeanors, then the honor of being the lead military unit (oldest unit comes first) in the parade line, which put us first after all the horse-mounted civilians. Yes, a great pair of corfam shoes ruined, and trousers which forever after had the faint hint of horseshit. But it was worth it, I think.

So I speak from no love of parades. But I do have great respect for the Army. It deserves a celebration. It didn’t choose to be born on June 14th, 1775. The Continental Congress created it that day. Nor did it choose to make 2025 a special anniversary. The Navy will celebrate the same on October 13th. The Navy won’t have a parade: they’re terrible at marching (just watch any Army-Navy football game march-on). Perhaps they will have a group swim, although I once told a naval officer “isn’t there something terribly gone wrong when a sailor is ‘in’ not ‘on’, the water?” He was unamused. The Marine Corps will celebrate this year, too, on November 10th (of course) The Marines are also eschewing a parade. They would be magnificent if they did it, with 3D holograms of beach landings, drone fireworks, and 24 hour press coverage, naturally. The Air Force will have nothing, as they are about as old as a great Scotch. But I digress.

The parade should be a blast: over 6,000 soldiers with full guidon regalia. Army aviation flyovers. Storied units, with some soldiers in era-appropriate gear (Even I would sign up for that. Hell, I marched in wool–not Merino wool, by the way–in a uniform design from the war of 1812. It combined the breathability of polyester with the smell of damp sheep). This parade should be a visual re-collection of our nation’s history , and one not likely to be recreated in our lifetimes.

Yet something about the Army’s parade has set people’s collective hair on fire. I can’t put a finger on it. Some say it will cost too much; estimates range from US$16-45 million! One note: when estimates range that widely, they’re basically what the Brits call shite. If you count things like “military pay,” “overtime,” and “training time loss” and give them monetary value, you can make a cost estimate as large as you like. President Obama’s inaugural cost the government a very real US$50 million. The federal government spends $50 million every four years on each of the party nominating conventions. The DOD Comptroller reported in 2023 the department spent US$86 million on diversity activities. And the list goes on. Somehow, this one-time, semiquincentennial expense alone merits unique opposition.

But it’s not only about the cost. There are serious national security concerns, too, I’m told. Those soldiers won’t be training. As if one week-plus of downtime was going to be the difference next war. One numbnuts (a technical Army term for someone who should know better) actually said ‘the Army was wasting time and money moving heavy vehicles cross country rather than using them for training.’ Learning how to cross-load an M1 Abrams tank correctly on a train at a railhead, planning the routes so it doesn’t get decapitated by a bridge, and getting all the supplies, fuel, and parts to the right place at the right time ARE training, amigo. Better yet are those who complain that the vehicles might harm DC roads (have you driven there? There are potholes which could double as anti-tank barriers!) or perhaps damage the bridges. Hmmm. Guess the Army never learned how to check that out. Or maybe it already did (hint: Google is your friend):

So no, this isn’t about cost, nor is it about damages, nor is it about military preparedness. This is all about one thing, and one thing only: Donald J. Trump. It seems the Army had the great misfortune to share its birthday with the 47th President of the United States. For that sin, people are calling for the parade to be cancelled, and some idjiots are even planning a protest.

During his first term, French President Macron invited then-president Trump to attend the massive Bastille day military parade in Paris. Trump was impressed, and wanted to do the same in Washington. Not because there was any reason to do so, just because he wanted to do so. It never happened. Now there is an excuse. Do I think Trump readily agreed to any request for an Army birthday celebratory parade? Of course he did. Do I imagine the Army seized on the opportunity? I hope so. If the Army staff didn’t point out the fact there will never be more White House support for a parade than this President, this year, it was malpractice. Every interest group looks for White House support. It just so happens the Army got lucky.

So riddle me this, Batman: if Trump were born on the same day as the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr, would we be calling to “stand down” vice “stand up” that day? If the Army held its parade on June 13th, would it be ok? Sometimes dates and commemorations are inconvenient. I know people who were born or got married on September 11th; should they not celebrate because of the terrible evil of that day? I don’t feel I am going out on a limb to say the Army will only have one 250th birthday; why spoil it because of someone else?

If you hate Donald Trump, you have a lot of company. Get together and hold a birthday party for Harriet Beecher Stowe, Burl Ives, Pierre Salinger, Che Guevara (!), Pat Summitt, Boy George, Steffi Graf, or the United States Army, all of whom share birth-dates. You can resume your non-stop hatred the next morning, and I’m sure there will be something about which to be angry. In the meantime, tell a soldier “happy birthday” and buy them a drink. If you’re in or near DC, show up and give them some love. They’re marching whether you’re there or not, but I’ll admit, an enthusiastic crowd is at least a distraction from the horse turds.

Everybody else: drop the silly pretenses, and leave my (stupid) parade alone.

In part I, I explained why I don’t feel the outrage so many others do. I made it clear that there are many things the Trump administration is doing that I disagree with either in intent or manner, but I don’t share the feeling that the end is near, as so many liberals, progressives, and the media preach. In part II, I covered what the big challenges are facing America today, and in part III, I suggested what those challenges require. It was a daunting list, yet I ended up sounding somewhat optimistic. In this conclusion, I’ll try to explain “why?”

The first cause for optimism is that it’s always better to correctly understand the world you’re in (and the problems thereof). That may seem obvious, but it bears repeating. Back during the Cold War, there were people who insisted the Soviet Union was just misunderstood, they weren’t as evil or ambitious as they seemed. Sometimes, these people were in power in various Western governments. It wasn’t a disaster, but it never went well. Anyway, people who think all will be well when we get to post-Trump are in for a rude awakening. They have missed the point.

That said, many people on both the right and the left are correctly describing how the world has changed. And that means they will be proposing solutions. Take for instance the economy. From the right, Oren Cass and the folks at American Compass have proposals to support families, unions, middle-class workers, and small businesses! On the left, Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson have a fascinating analysis in their new book, Abundance, which highlights how government regulations strangle both productivity and progress. Our leaders should welcome such ideas. I would love to hear that President Trump has invited Klein and Thompson to lead a federal study on which federal regulations to amend/eliminate.

On international relations, foreign leaders are admitting they have neglected military spending for decades, and have to adjust. I had a fascinating exchange on social media with someone defending Belgium as a loyal American ally who simply chose to invest in a better life for its citizens. I asked why that same idea didn’t apply to Americans, and of course got no response. Germany recently signaled a major investment in its military; I’ll withhold judgment until I see the spending turn into real capabilities.The notion of a “global policeman” is an historical oddity, and we need to return to reality. Freedom isn’t free, for anybody.

On international trade, no one can argue Trump hasn’t upended the system. That part is done. It’s very unclear if his administration has the acumen to create a new one. I guarantee if they don’t, they won’t get a second chance in 2028. There will be economic dislocations along the way, whoever eventually develops the new trading system. But the jury is still out, as we don’t even have a full quarter of economic data under Trump’s second term yet. What we can’t do is continue along the path of free-trade-no-matter-what that we were on.

Technology remains an unknown. America has the technological genius to win the AI war, but do we have the political genius to enable, enforce, and exploit it? I don’t see that in either party right now. And the people developing the systems can’t do it alone; remember, FaceBook was going to be a global commons of love and happiness–how did that turn out?

Education reform is a mixed bag, in my opinion. Things like growth in home-schooling and charter schools are only good in that having options is always better; they are not sure things, by any stretch of the imagination. But I hear of school systems resuming testing and standards, banning cell phones, and re-creating challenging placement programs. We’ll need a return of non-college track options, too. At the same time, some schools remain tied to things like the 1619 Project and DEI initiatives, which are educational dead ends. At least the general direction in education is toward more competition, which will expose the fads and frauds.

Government spending is where the outlook is most grim. DOGE has been mainly a stunt, notwithstanding saving $100+ billion. Trimming the federal workforce helps, but the way it’s being done is neither healthy nor precise. Everybody continues to swear all entitlements are off the table, which makes reducing the deficit almost impossible. Meanwhile, the MAGA party swears by Republican tax cuts for all and the Democrats profess “wealth taxes” and “ending corporate welfare,” bogus phrases which have no meaning. The silver lining here is that the threatening storm clouds will not blow away, so we have to face up to cuts eventually. I’ll go so far as to say that the party/leader who commits to addressing the deficit/debt issue with real solutions will win the next Presidential election.

One other reason for optimism is how fast the Trump administration is working when it knows what it wants to do. Look at immigration, which I don’t consider one of the great remaining challenges. Trump was always clear about how he felt on immigration; no one can debate that. We were assured by immigration experts that nothing could be done to stop the masses of people heading up through Central America, and that no one could identify all the undocumented/illegal aliens already in the country, that removing them would destroy the home-building and agricultural sectors, and that most of the people here were vetted and therefore not a threat. We have since learned that none of those “truths” were correct.

Border crossings are down somewhere around ninety percent (the exact numbers are in dispute, not the size of the change). The pipeline of migrants in Central America has reversed and is heading back home. The federal government is (for the first time) using all data at its disposal (including tax data) to identify those illegally in the country. Imagine that. Trump’s audacious (or illegal, the Supreme Court has not ruled) deportations have sent a clear signal that illegal immigration is as dangerous once you reach the United States as it was getting there. And people are realizing that no one could vet these migrants, as their home countries either didn’t share data with the US, or didn’t care.

But like many of the bigger challenges, all of this is being done quickly but impermanently. A future progressive Presidency could undo much of it just as quickly. The administration will need to work with Congress in a bipartisan fashion to enact laws that bring stability to the results already achieved. We need better border security, streamlined immigration proceedings, a new merit-based immigration policy, solutions for “the Dreamers,” elimination of birthright citizenship, reform of temporary refugee rules, and leadership to change international asylum law. That’s quite a menu! I have serious doubts about Trump’s ability to do this, even in immigration, which should be his strong suit. And the same goes for all the challenges above.

When you look at my list of challenges, you can see progress or promise in nearly every item. So the challenges are daunting, but I remain optimistic. One final note, about that Trump guy. I have friends who live-and-die on a steady diet of Trump outrage, and it only outrages them more when anyone else doesn’t join them. I don’t, because he’s just not that important. He is at best a transitional figure, and he seems to instinctively understand some of the issues, even if his solutions are often not well-conceived. If you focus on Trump, you have my sympathy. There are thousands of influencers, media types, and “friends” feeding the obsession. He doesn’t merit all the attention, and you’re missing out on profound things happening in the larger world. One day we will be beyond Trump, that much is certain. In the meantime, we all have choices to make: identify problems and solutions, or resist Trump. I choose the former. If you choose the latter, we’ll meet up again in the post-Trump world.

This is the third post in a four-part series. This post covers what the possibilities are following that (perhaps) creative destruction.

What will the changed world look like, if we peer intently at it without filtering it through a Trumpian or Resistance lens? Like this:

Geopolitics and the Military. In case you missed it, Uncle Sam walked off the beat as the world’s policeman. It didn’t happen under Trump. We got tired of the beat way back under “W,” then started taking mental health days-off under Obama. It continued under Trump’s first term and Biden’s senescence. During that period, our absence became noticeable, then obvious. Red-lines crossed, invasions met with outrage or “sanctions,” diplomatic insults ignored or endured. None of the Presidents I mentioned are to blame specifically; they each correctly intuited the American people’s view that enough was enough.

Now we are one tough opponent away from having a military humiliation. That won’t mean the end of anything, let alone the good ole US of A. But it’s a bad situation. In the past, we were able to recover quickly (see Pearl Harbor, Kasserine Pass, Pusan perimeter, the battle of Long Island, Bull Run I & II, and so on), but that is not always an option. It takes economic production and national will, two other things in short supply. Our leaders need to be clear-headed about who we are committed to defending, and why. We are not facing a global peer competitor bent on world domination (like the Nazis or the Soviet Union were). China wants to coerce the world toward its preferences, much like the US did (cooperatively) after World War II. The end result would be bad, and it is something we should oppose. But every nation is going to have to pull its own weight. And the US needs to radically restructure its armed forces quickly and efficiently, since we can’t simply throw money we don’t have at the challenge.

Economics & Trade. Economists used to talk about the “rational consumer” making informed choices as the key to understanding the markets and trade. Such economic theorists never stood outside a Best Buy in the wee hours of Black Friday. Economics may be the dismal science, but it is hardly the rational one. Economics is a subset of national security, as we recently relearned. If a country can’t make the things it needs, it may be denied those things when it most urgently needs them (medicines, computer chips, minerals). The US must recover this notion not in order to become autarchic (meeting all our needs alone), but to avoid being at the mercy of competitors, whether friends or enemies.

This will involve upending the free trade system we built. As a person who benefited greatly from the free movement of goods, services, and people, I lament its passing. As a clear-eyed observer of what’s happening, I admit it has to go. That means more border restrictions, tariffs, quotas, and restrictions. It doesn’t mean a senseless rush to impose all such things against all countries at once. Nixon may have pulled off the madmen theory of international politics with respect to bombing North Vietnam, but that doesn’t make it a viable strategy in general.

Things will cost more. Some things will be unavailable. There will be disruptions. There were under the old free-trade system, too. The fallacy of just-in-time delivery was that not everything can be planned for, let alone adjusted to. Some manufacturing will return to America; we’ll never have as many manufacturing jobs as we once did, because we are producing more things with fewer people nowadays. But there will be more opportunities for decent middle-class jobs.

Education. The American educational system has lost its way. Our brightest students do fine, and we heap resources on those who need more/different/extra help. But the vast majority of students in the middle are terribly short-changed. We spend more than most nations (per student) and get worse results. Schools have increasingly added staff for counselling and managing rather than teachers for teaching.

True story: back when the founders were “bringing forth a new nation,” there were very few public schools. The rich hired tutors, and church schools provided the primary source of education. Our early leaders knew that a Republic needs an educated polity, so they developed the notion of free public education. A (very) secondary benefit was shaping the culture of the next generation. Today we seem to have gotten things reversed. Schools spend too much time pushing cultural agendas, and not enough time ensuring basic literacy and numeracy. You don’t need to engage in a culture war while you’re learning to read-n-write (take note, Montgomery County, Maryland). You don’t learn how to deal with a different person by being told how to think about one, you learn by having a friend in your class who is different.

We could all do with a significant clarification of roles with regard to how we educate our youth. The primary role belongs to parents and teachers in local schools. School boards exist to provide the partnership necessary to enforce those roles, not to tell parents to “mind their own business” or tell teachers how to teach. School boards absolutely do decide what to teach; that is their main purpose. They do this by representing the values and desires of the people in the community. It’s not censorship, it’s local control. And it’s okay if things are different in different places. City and State governments provide funding to address imbalances, and establish requirements for accreditation/graduation. The federal government can also provide funding, and should set national educational standards for achievement. Not use that money as a means to micro-manage it.

Taxes, Spending, Regulations. This is where most of us will feel the pain. We’ve been overspending for so long, so much has to be cut, it will affect everyone. There is no single magic solution, a la “tax the rich” or a wealth tax or ending corporate welfare that will bring the federal fiscal books back near balance. They don’t have to balance exactly, they just can’t be out for whack like they have been for forty-six of the past fifty years! Yes, we should raise taxes on the rich, but we’ll need some benefit cuts, too. More programs need to be means-tested.

Take social security for example. There are many terrible memes about it, like the Ronald Reagan quote that Social Security does not add to the deficit. It was true back in 1981, it’s absolutely false today. Or the meme decrying that social security should not be called an “entitlement” because ‘I earned it.’

It’s called an entitlement because that’s a federal legal term meaning the government “has to” pay it. Still want to change the word? And unless you die early, you’ll get more from social security than you paid in (even accounting for your employers contribution AND interest). See what the problem is? If most everybody gets more than they pay in, the only way the system can work is if the population of young workers (who have not yet retired) is always growing larger than the wave of retirees they are supporting. Guess what? It isn’t anymore, and since the number of twenty-somethings in 2045 is already set, it won’t ever be so again soon.

The good news is there are many small fixes which can make the system sound once more. There’s a website you can visit (here), where you can try your hand at fixing the problem, and it doesn’t require throwing granny off the cliff. But as long as we treat all entitlement reform as untouchable, we’ll continue to hurtle toward a very real, very sizable cut within a decade or two.

As to other spending and employee reductions, here’s a simple point DOGE made which has been lost in the partisan battle. DOGE is characterizing everything as fraud/waste/abuse, and the Resistance is highlighting how each cut will hurt. Did the US Agency for International Development (USAID) really spend US $32,000 on an LBGTQ+ comic book in Peru? No, the Resistance tells us, it was the State Department (not USAID), and it was a gay character, not LBGTQ+ (Snopes says so!). But stop and consider this: in a country seriously over-spending (as measured by our deficit), the system approved funding for such things. The system (people and process, both) thought it was no big deal. Maybe because it was small, but this happens all over the government. Maybe they thought it was important, even critically so. But when you claim we don’t need to radically restructure both the people and the process the government uses to spend money, you have to defend these outcomes. Good luck!

Technology. We are on the brink of an important technological advance. Artificial Intelligence (AI) may prove as revolutionary as the printing press, or merely as important as the personal computer. But it will effect major changes in society, and we don’t know how. We just finished with a small experiment on our own children (smart phones + social media) that has not turned out well in my opinion. We currently let the Communist Party of China have direct access to the ids an egos of our children and young adults (via TikTok), in a way we never would have let the Nazis or the Soviets. The Chinese do not let their own children and young adults access the same info they peddle to ours. And now we are in a technological competition with them for AI supremacy. Did it matter who won the race for the atom bomb? Absolutely for the Nazis, not as much for the Soviets. But do we want to find out what it’s like to come in second? And are we ready in any event?

This may all seem to be bleak and overwhelming. That said, I wouldn’t trade the position of the United States for that of any competitor. Of all the nations/groups involved in this developing new world order, we have the biggest advantages, not least in that we have people on both the left and the right that realize the changes we are experiencing. Denying them, or attributing them to the passing fancies of Donald Trump, are fatal errors. And no, I’m not saying President Trump has the answers. I’m sure someone out there is readying another comment about Trump’s inadequacy or insanity, missing the global forest of challenges for the Trumpian trees.

The Trump administration may have stumbled onto some of the correct policies. They still have to implement them in ways which work. And these policies will require both legislative enactment and sustained commitments well beyond the Trump years. I’ll wrap up my thoughts on that in the final post.

This is the second post in a four-part series. I’ve been thinking about all the dislocation the Trump administration has wrought, what it means, and what will follow it. Today’s installment is about that dislocation.

Sometimes the world seems to change on a dime. You can look at an event, almost always after the fact, and say, “yup, that’s where everything changed.” Take the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914. New technologies were already revolutionizing travel and the spread of information. Global trade was booming. The shifting alliance system of Europe, developed after the shock of Napoleon’s reign in the early nineteenth century, had generally kept the peace in Europe and even among the many world-wide colonies for a century. That assassination triggered World War I, destroyed several empires, began the deconstruction of colonialism, undid international trade, and set the table for a far more destructive and disruptive sequel, World War II.

It didn’t happen all at once. There was a month of build-up after the assassination, and of course several years of war and decades of tumult, but it all tied directly back to the gunshot at the carriage in Sarajevo.

Many might suspect the terrorist attack on 9/11 was another such event. It’s too early to tell, but did the world change that day, or in the twenty-some years since? The US got involved in foreign wars: some justified, some not. People all over the world had to adjust to tightened security at airports. Islam received greater attention concerning its relationship with modernity. Oh, it was traumatic, especially to those who suffered a loss or were in the targeted cities. But the world remained remarkably similar. And it was that world which is now fundamentally changing.

Other times the entire world changes fundamentally but slowly. China retreated inward and disappeared from the world over a few centuries at the end of the first millennium. The United Kingdom took forty years or so to understand, address, and finally solve “the German Question.” Which only opened the door to “the Soviet Problem” the US had to understand, address, and finally solve after forty-five years. We appear to be in one of the those cycles of history, where things are changing fundamentally, but slowly.

The changes in the international situation can be neatly summed up: we have returned to a multi-polar world. For a period between 1989 (the collapse of the Soviet Union) and perhaps 2008 (the Great Recession), the US was the sole remaining superpower. It could throw its unchallenged weight around financially, militarily, morally and politically. However, throughout that period, China and the European Union (EU) were growing more economically resilient and resistant to US leadership. For the EU, it was arguing at the margins of the international free-trade order which had benefited both the EU and the US. For China, it was using that order to undermine the US and the order itself. Western leaders believed if they invited China to play by the rules, the benefits of global free trade would liberalize the Communist regime. The Chinese believed they could rig the game, make the West dependent on them, and emerge as a global power. Guess who was right?

Meanwhile, the US military edge dulled and atrophied. Our military remains dominant, but too small and perhaps too centered on legacy capabilities for modern warfare. It is a potent force, but brittle, and not resourced for longer engagements, which is a disastrous weakness when confronting powers that are. I’ll spare you the details on military capabilities, but if you even look at modern combat in Ukraine, you see radically different capabilities. Our military can master these new requirements, but will they be prepared?

Not to mention the erosion of American will. America’s willpower was always the secret weapon of American success. We may not win at first, but we persevere and win in the end, whether its battle, business, or sports. We won early in Afghanistan, but couldn’t stay the course long enough to accomplish our enlarged goals of creating a liberal democracy in the Hindu Kush. Mind you, that was a terrible case of mission creep, but it’s not like we didn’t know how (see Germany, Korea, Japan, etc) or have the resources. And it’s not that the cost in lives was too high: in the years before President Trump negotiated our withdrawal, and President Biden comically and criminally executed it, we lost more soldiers in training accidents annually than in Afghanistan! It took almost fifty years for South Korea to become a developed democracy. We simply lost the ability to persevere.

On the home front, the economic deals we made furthering free trade undermined the American dream for millions of the factory-working middle class. Our political parties took turns reducing taxes and increasing benefits, leading to sky-rocketing deficits and national debt. Any attempt to rein in spending met with dire predictions of poverty for the most vulnerable, or economic ruin for the most productive. Social Security is now drawing down its reserves (the ill-fated “lock box”), meaning we’re paying today dollars to redeem those bonds, and interest on the national debt will soon be the biggest single line item in the federal budget.

The administrative state has gone completely out of control. In the early 1990s, the code of federal regulations contained around 60,000 pages. Today it’s close to 200,000. Even small changes in federal policies or practices run into mind-numbing requirements, such that an administration can easily add to them, but it is almost powerless to remove them. Even Progressives have come to realize that America is drowning in a mass of procedural red tape that prohibits or delays everything from tiny houses to bridges to business start-ups. And we did this entirely to ourselves.

Speaking of self-sabotage, is there anybody who still doesn’t realize our educational system is expensive, inefficient, and produces poor results? While this was largely an academic (sorry for the pun) argument in the past, the pandemic laid it bare: Unions arguing for no school, school systems wasting billions while not recovering lost learning, absenteeism at record rates. Not to mention universities producing “graduates” who can’t write a single coherent page.

At the same time, technology is racing along, changing at a fairly rapid pace. Artificial Intelligence may change everything . . . or it may not. But it will change many things, and only those countries, businesses, and people who are prepared will prosper (thus has it always been). Does the United States I have described sound like a country that is prepared to exploit the change?

Fixing any one of these (trade, military force, federal spending, education, or new technology) would be a herculean undertaking. All at once? Improbable, but that is where we are. What it calls for is drastic, fundamental change in our approach to the challenges. Practically starting over. Look at global trade, for example. Who wants to overturn the system? Nobody. It’s been good for the EU, China, developing nations, the Davos crowd, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF), even for some in the United States. But it’s not working the way we want, which means we either have to live with it, or force it to change. That is not done lightly or easily, as Trump’s tariff wars demonstrate.

There’s the one name I haven’t mentioned previously: Trump. Fans and ‘phobes both focus on him (he loves it, by the way), but he’s a symptom of the change, not its cause, and probably not its solution. One thing Mr. Trump has always been very good at is identifying problems, and he called out many of these before he ran for office the first time. I often see social media posts lamenting, “how could the working class fall for this rich phony?” I usually respond the same way: because he was the only one correctly identifying the problems the working class was experiencing. Will he fix them? I have my doubts, but the voters who support him know there is a better chance at fixing the problems when you know what they are, then if you don’t have a clue. Which was the case of the alternatives.

The case for fundamental change is pretty clear. The alternative is to avoid the pain and continue down the path to national insolvency and international irrelevance. But there are few easy fixes, and even when there are some, a few sacred oxen–conservative and progressive– will need to be gored. I am not saying the dislocation the Trump administration is causing is necessarily the right way; rather, you shouldn’t object to it simply because it is dislocation (or because it is Trump’s). We are all going to have to get used to some discomfort (ideological or economic) on the way to recovery.

Part III will talk about that path forward.

A very good friend of many years posed a series of questions to me recently. He applauded my in-depth research and dispassionate consideration of issues, but then pointedly asked why I take the media to task for its bias and exaggeration but why I didn’t subject the Trump agenda to the same level of scrutiny? Why didn’t I see the same “threats to democracy” so many others do? How could I be so complacent with everything that’s going on? These were thoughtful (if somewhat slanted) observations that deserve a response. Here it is.

First, I would answer by asking, “what is the source of your outrage?” If you’re outraged because you disagree with Trump’s policies, you made a category error. Policies need to be argued, neither hated nor cheered. If you’re outraged by Trump’s vulgarity, coarseness, and willingness to shred the restraints of good manners (personally and politically), I totally understand. But is Trump unique in this regard? Only for those who haven’t studied history, as I have detailed with Kennedy, Johnson, and Nixon, just to cite recent leaders. What is different about Trump is he embodies the whole package, and more importantly, he revels in it, seeking your agreement that he is indeed unique and unprecedented. Your outrage is exactly what he seeks, and you willingly work with him on it. You have to own that, as he is clear about it himself (Musk, too, as it is for all people who enjoy “trolling”)! But what if your outrage stems from the clear and present danger Trump poses to the American experiment? That would seem a self-evident justification for outrage. But whence does that assessment come?

Setting aside my well-worn point that what we have in America is a republic, not a democracy (it’s not germane to this argument, generally, but I’ll never miss a chance to re-state it), this assessment comes from various political leaders, press types, and expert influencers. They work in a mutually reinforcing cycle: Trump acts, political opponents observe that what he has done is “unprecedented” or “illegal” or “unconstitutional.” Media types flog this language in headlines. They then engage experts who comment on how Trump’s actions are not only all those things, they are also a “threat to democracy.” Rinse & repeat.

This cycle assured us Trump’s “Muslim ban” was unconstitutional. That Trump’s lawyers’ argument for Presidential immunity was “without precedent” and “staggering.” That deportations to El Salvador are beyond the pale. That withholding federal funds from universities or not spending amounts appropriated by Congress are systemic challenges. And on and on. What these cases have in common is hyperbole. Some were accepted by the US Supreme Court (SCOTUS); one may not like that, and one certainly does not have to agree with them. But one cannot simply continue to claim unconstitutionality in the face of a recent SCOTUS decision. Others are still up for debate, so what the talking heads should be saying is, “in my opinion” or “if I were in SCOTUS,” not just “it is unconstitutional.” The difference is important, because millions of Americans don’t understand that claims by such politicians, media, and expert influencers are not final. They are debatable opinions. And no, they are not the ones who ultimately make the decision, which is important.

What about those clear, unarguable cases? Like the deportations? Like the visa violations? As I demonstrated in earlier posts, when you ignore the national media and dig into the facts of the stories, they become far less clear, far more ambiguous. Tariffs are another great example. We’re clearly experiencing a major international economic dislocation sparked by the Trump administration’s tariff policies. Foreign governments are up in arms, because they liked the trading system the US developed, and now it is changing. Markets love stability, and the system is changing, so they are punishing everyone until some stability is achieved. When will a new equilibrium be established? No one knows, and neither does anyone know whether it will be more or less favorable to the United States. If you are a member of the MAGA faithful, you take Trump’s word that it will be great; if you are part of the resistance, you pronounce TEOTWAKI*. I prefer to watch and see what happens. I’ll hedge my bets, stay flexible, and adjust. I do know one thing for sure: the United States could not continue on the trade path it was on.

“Is there anything you’re willing to criticize about the administration and its policies?” I can hear my progressive friends cry. Let me count the ways:

• Needless demeaning of opponents, real or imagined (Canada, anyone?)
• Refusal to do the hard math regarding federal revenue and spending (National debt)
• Inability to admit a mistake under any circumstances
• Insistence on the brilliance and correctness of whatever the President says and does, even when he directly contradicts what he said or did yesterday (or five minutes ago!)
• Characterizing all opposition as traitorous or anti- American
• Describing any spending with which one doesn’t agree as “fraud, waste, and abuse.”
• Messaging profound economic changes in policies that inflame (rather than temper) market uncertainty.
• Unnecessarily cruel and demeaning trolling on social media (the crying immigrant case)

And that list is just off the top of my head. And does anybody doubt the media is over-producing critique of the administration? I consume more national media than almost anybody I know, and it is non-stop critique, not to mention social media. I prefer to consider and comment, and argue if necessary. I don’t see any value in the types of “shares” I see filled with vulgarity, photoshop, and obvious lies. Many social media “friends” do, sadly. They share such things, oddly unaware they are contributing to the overall decline in the social construct. Tell me what you think, and more importantly, why!

I could make similar lists of objectionable policies for the Biden administration, the Obama administration, the “W.” Bush administration, and the Clinton administration, just to name a few. Partisans on both sides impute a golden age to whatever recent President represented their “side” and “hell” to that of their opponents. Neither is true. The United States is in a mess, not because of Trump, but because of a series of policy decisions by all those leaders, including Donald J. Trump. Getting out of the mess won’t be easy, and won’t be painless . . . for all of us. But we have a choice: deny there is a problem and continue down the path to certain failure, or take the medicine and attempt to correct it. Note there is nothing certain in Trump’s (or anyone else’s) prescriptions for what ails us: they may be wrong, or they may not work. But I guarantee you denying the problems won’t either.

Coming next, Part II: The Role of Disruption

*The End of the World as we know it

Nothing better encapsulates today’s toxic mix of bad policy, worse media narratives, and extreme paranoia than the stories of The Maryland Man. You might be thinking, “Pat, the weird stories are always about a ‘Florida Man,'” and you would be right. But you know exactly who I am talking about.

One narrative goes like this: an innocent Maryland man, husband to an American wife and father to an American child, in the country legally for ten years, was arrested in a sweep by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). He was spirited off the streets while on his way to work, never to see his wife and children again. He disappeared into the deportation machine, until his wife identified him by tattoos as one of the “terrorist gang members” deported to El Salvador (mistakenly) and locked up in their maximum security prison. It is an offense to justice, due process, and humanity, all in one.

The other narrative says the man was a convicted member of MS-13, had come to the country illegally under false pretenses, was arrested at a gang meeting, had MS-13 membership tattoos, and now is out of the country where he no longer poses any threat to Americans.

Need I remind you that the term “narrative” could be simply defined as a story you want to believe. In this case, both narratives have some facts and many fallacies. Neither is true in any real sense of that word. “Let’s go to the videotape” as Warner Wolfe used to say.

The Maryland Man’s name is Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia (hereafter “Garcia”). He came to the United States at age sixteen in 2011 from El Salvador, crossing the border illegally (a fact not in dispute). He lived here for eight years before being detained in a police raid of suspected MS-13 gang members in 2019. The raid was predicated on a confidential source who correctly identified several MS-13 members, and indicated Garcia, too, was a member, although he was not the target of the raid. The police handed Garcia over to ICE. At his immigration hearing, he requested to be released on bail. The immigration judge found “the fact that a ‘past, proven, and reliable source of information’ verified (Garcia’s) gang membership, rank, and gang name is sufficient to support (Garcia’s) gang membership” and denied his release as a threat to the community.

Contra Vice President Vance’s assertion Garcia was “convicted,” this was an immigration court and hence a civil finding, not a conviction. Contra all those who minimize this finding, such a finding was all that was determined in President Trump’s sexual assault case. You can’t have it both ways. Back to the Maryland Man.

Garcia appealed the judge’s finding and it was affirmed by an appeals court who also noted Garcia was a flight risk due to his failure to show up for several traffic violations. Next Garcia filed a request for asylum, claiming his life was threatened by the Barrio 18 gang in El Salvador due to his family’s pupusa* business. His asylum filing was rejected because it was outside the statute of limitations, but the immigration judge did find Garcia had a legitimate fear if he was returned to El Salvador. Thus the judge granted him a “withholding of removal” to El Salvador. He could not be sent to that country, but he was ineligible for asylum and could be deported anywhere else.

He wasn’t picked up in an immigration raid, even back in 2019; it was a criminal (i.e., police) raid of MS-13 gang members. Although he was never convicted, both an immigration judge and an appeals court found he likely was a gang member. He was allowed to stay freely in the country (even after his asylum request was denied) by a lax Biden administration policy. He did not have a “legally-protected status” as some media sources claimed. His only legal protection was against being deported to El Salvador. This was the “administrative error” the Trump administration admitted to in court: not in deporting him, which was their right, but in deporting him to the one country to which he wasn’t allowed to be deported.

Was he assessed to be an MS-13 gang member because of his tattoos or clothing (he was wearing a Chicago Bulls hat when apprehended). According to the judge who made the finding, no. That judge put no stock in the clothing or tattoos, but instead weighed the confidential source’s credibility and the fact Garcia was arrested in the company of three convicted MS-13 gang leaders. Does that mean he was a gang member? Not necessarily. Maybe he was and quit when he got to the States. Maybe he never was, and it was all one hell of a coincidence. Maybe he was a gang-banger, and just very good at not getting caught. Even the judge noted only having three minor traffic convictions in almost ten years would be unusual for a gang member.

What can we say definitively? He was not in the Unites States legally in any way shape or form. Garcia received all the due process which was his right: an immigration hearing, an appeal, and an asylum hearing. He never received any right or privilege to stay in the country, only one which prohibited his deportation to El Salvador. He never should have been on that plane to San Salvador, but he could have been dropped off in Mexico on any day of the week. Nothing in his record was unknown to his family; there were no surprises here, except for the fact that the Biden administration failed to detain him after two judges found he was a potential threat to the community. But that’s how they treated the law at the time. No one but Garcia, MS-13, or the Lord knows whether he was a gang member. One interesting point is that if he was an MS-13 member, it would explain his well-founded fear of the Barrio 18 gang, as they were mortal enemies.

This was not a sweeping miscarriage of justice, nor Gestapo tactics. It was blatantly incompetent. It is also sad that his wife and child are missing him, but that is the inevitable consequence of a series of horrible policy decisions by two (not one) administrations. I don’t know if Mr. Garcia is or was a gang member . . . and neither do you. What I do know is the narratives both sides are telling you are pupusas stuffed with something nasty.

*Salvadoran stuffed tortillas, according to the court record.

Post Script: Since I completed this, an appeals court judge said the deportation was “wholly lawless” and questioned the immigration court judge’s ruling that the ICE confidential source was credible. This is highly unusual, as appellate judges normally only review procedures and do not dispute the facts as established by the trial court (civil or criminal). The appellate judge did not explain why she disagreed with the immigration judge’s assessment of the source, calling the government’s claim “just chatter,” and she ordered the federal government to immediately comply by returning Garcia to the United States.

The Trump administration appealed to the Supreme Court, which held (5-4) that the district court where the initial ruling was made was not the correct venue and therefore the various orders and injunctions were null and void. The court did not rule on whether the Trump administration’s claims under the Alien Act of 1789 were valid. Stay tuned!