Back in the second century BCE (Before Christian Era), Carthage was a city state on what is now the Tunisian coast. It was the predominant maritime power in the Mediterranean Sea, a commercial and culture powerhouse. Rome was a local upstart at the time, but after the First and Second Punic Wars, it became clear that only one of them could remain. Cato the Elder, a famous Roman politician in the Republic, saw this more clearly than anyone else. He started using the catch phrase, “Carthago delenda est,” as an all-purpose sign-off in his speeches in the Senate, regardless of topic. In the phrase’s several variations, it translates as “Carthage must be destroyed.” Rome finally did that in 146 BCE.
After the Second World War, the United Nations (UN) recognized the enormity (note the correct use of the term) of the Nazi Holocaust of the Jewish people, and decided to establish a Jewish homeland where Jews everywhere could be safe. The UN did not give Israel to the Jews. There were Jews there since the Romans last tried to eradicate them in 135 CE (Christian Era). After the Bar Kokhba Revolt, the Romans razed Jerusalem and sold the Jewish people off to slavery, dispersing them across the empire. The Romans did a lot of that. They so wanted to eliminate all traces of Jewish culture, they made up a new name for the area; Syria Palestina. The name used by the Arab peoples living in the region today is a vestige of that almost-successful Jewish eradication.
When the UN partitioned then-Palestine into separate Jewish and Arab states in 1947, the Jews celebrated a new homeland. Within days, six Arab national armies invaded, leading to a war of military units versus ad hoc groups of armed Jews. There were battles, terrorism, and reprisals. Somehow Israel survived. Twenty years of antagonism, terrorism, and bloodshed ensued. Israel realized there would be no peace with these Arab states until they gave up their publicly-stated goal to eradicate the Jewish nation. In 1967, Israel learned another war was being planned, and they struck first routing the Arab forces and capturing Jerusalem, the Sinai Peninsula, and the Golan Heights. Jews were once again free to pray at the Western Wall, a right they had been denied by the Arab leaders since 1947. But the existential threat remained, called to the world’s attention by the terrorist murder of Israeli athletes at the 1972 Munich Olympics.
In 1973, the Arab nations once again tried a surprise attack, on Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish calendar. This war went well for the Arabs for days, but the tide turned and Israel so decisively destroyed the Egyptian and Syrian forces that only threats by the Soviet Union to the United States (and subsequent US pressure on Israel) ended the conflict. By 1978, Egypt had had enough, and it aligned itself with the US (vice the USSR) and signed the Camp David accords with Israel. Egypt and Israel both complied with the terms of the agreement. The Palestinians, who were welcome but not a party to it, refused to participate.
Resentment among the Palestinian people over their lack of control led to the First Intifada, a popular violent uprising, in 1987. More brutality, repression, and terrorism ensued. The conflict hit a turning point in 1993 when Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization signed the Oslo Accords, laying out a path toward a negotiated two-state solution. But neither side was willing to negotiate on critical issues: Israel would not give up Jerusalem, the PLO would not accept the right of the Jewish nation to exist. Hard to compromise with those positions. A Second Intifada in 2000 yielded only more misery.
By 2006, the corruption and decadence of the PLO administration in the West Bank prompted those Palestinians (two million strong) in the Gaza strip to elect Hamas, a terrorist militia group, as its government. On a related note, there have been no further elections in Gaza. Hamas is dedicated to the destruction of the Jewish state and the killing of all Jews in the Middle East. They seek only the compromise of the grave.
Why relate all this? Some people want to believe there is a misunderstanding between the Arabs and the Jews in the region, and if they could just compromise, all this bloodshed would end. But like Rome and Carthage, this will never end that way. Israel has tried time and again to find responsible partners for peace. When they have, they cooperated. Israel is at peace with Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan, and Morocco. The Palestinian Authority (the once-PLO government in the West Bank) has never been such a partner, and Hamas never will be (same goes for Hezbollah in Lebanon).
As I blogged a month ago, the Biden administration was semi-secretly working a peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israel would get peace with the prestigious keeper of Islam’s holiest sites and the primary Arab benefactor. The House of Saud would get an explicit American defense promise, support for eventual nuclearization in the event Iran creates an atomic bomb, and both Jerusalem and Riyadh could focus their antagonism on Iran. The US gets greater stability in the Middle East, isolates Iran, and freezes China out just as they try to move into the region. If all this sounds too good to be true, it certainly was to Iran and Hamas. They had to do something to scuttle the momentum toward this agreement.
What was this attack? It was a terrorist attack in the form of a cross border raid. It was not meant to occupy territory or to overrun Israel. It was meant to humiliate the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), kill as many unarmed Jews as quickly as possible, grab as many hostages as possible, and cause Israel to overreact in the hopes it scuttles the deal. If you think that sounds like a Pyrrhic victory (one where the result isn’t worth the cost), you would be correct. But the Arabs attacked in 1973 on the same premise: we’ll lose in the end, but we’ll make them look bad for a time.
Was this an intelligence failure? Too soon to tell, but here is what I can say. There are Israeli press reports from the past few weeks about suspicious activities in Gaza. The Egyptians claim they warned the Israelis. It is not hard to hide evidence of a raid, and it looks like the IDF looked at the indications and thought, “this attack would make no sense” so they thought it was a feint.
Whose fault is it? There are some trying to place blame on the Netanyahu government for causing division in Israel, but those voices are mostly being (rightly) drowned out. Those IDF reservists who refused to report last month in protest are all under arms and headed to war today, as they should be. Israel is amidst a divisive debate about what kind of country it wants to be, but that is not the reason Hamas attacked. Hamas attacked because it wants to kill Jews. Period.
What happens now? Israel has announced a total blockade of Gaza, a tiny slip of urban blight between Egypt, Israel, and the sea (excellent background from the Washington Post here). No food, no fuel, no water. Things will get ugly fast. In the meantime, the Israeli air and ground forces are systematically eliminating any Hamas infrastructure in the strip, with attendant civilian casualties. Ground attack will follow.
What should happen? True to form, Hamas is threatening to start streaming the execution of the hostages it has unless the IDF stops. The Israeli government can’t save those poor souls, some of whom are Americans. Israel should announce it is disarming and demilitarizing the Gaza strip. Demand that Hamas surrender all hostages immediately, or else all Hamas personnel will be tried for war crimes. All military age men in Gaza (16-65 years old) must lay down their weapons and surrender, to be repatriated to whatever nation will accept them. Their families are free to leave with them. Any women and children remaining are welcome to stay under UN auspices. If there is resistance, the IDF will first eliminate it, building by building, then turn the area back over to the UN. It will never be a city, an enclave, or a terrorist base again. It can become the world’s largest, peaceful refugee camp. Or it can become a ruin, a warning to those who always choose violence. Maybe it would even become a tourist attraction in a thousand years.
Gaza delenda est.
Excellent commentary Patrick. An interesting article in the Times of Israel addresses questions about Israel’s “intelligence failure”
The article discusses how Netanyahu’s government’s attention was almost completely drawn to the West Bank. The new government was committed to expanding Israeli settlements in the West Bank and was expecting Increased resistance from Palestinians. They were hardly looking at Gaza except for aerial surveillance with drones.
Therein lies the roots of the “intelligence failure.” As Israeli Lieutenant General Amir Avivi notes in the article, Hamas avoided Israeli surveillance by eschewing means of communication that could be intercepted by technical means. They likely relied on couriers and small face to face to communicate and coordinate, what Avivi called “stone-age” methods.
Hamas, and Gaza in general, is a clan-based society, which translates to a society with built-in resistance to Human Intelligence tactics. If a person isn’t in the right clan, he or she are not trusted with secrets. Spying for the enemy isn’t a betrayal of country, a nebulous concept in a place like Gaza, but a betrayal of family. To top it off, spying for the enemy–Israel–is rewarded by death (and probably not a swift one) if caught.
So, while Israel was looking the wrong direction, Hamas was able, slowly, methodically, and nearly invisibly (to Israel), to ready a deadly campaign of terror. The Times of Israel article suggests the Egyptian government warned Israeli official and Netanyau personally that Hamas was up to something bad and big. As you have noted, Netanyahu’s government may well have dismissed Egyptian warnings because they didn’t think Hamas could pull something off on a large scale.
For most of my life, I’ve hoped Israelis and Palestinians could find a way to peace. At one point it seemed possible, then Itsak Rabin wassolution. by an Israeli extremist and one of the few Israeli leaders with the credibility and stature to persuade both parties to work together was sacrificed to insanity. At this point it seems that scraping Gaza into the sea may be the necessary solution.
As is often the case, autocorrect thinks it knows better. “Itsak Rabin wassolution” is supposed to read “Itsak Rabin was assassinated.”
Denis, thanks for the insight from the Times. Classic case of signals missed because they weren’t the signals wanted. We both have witnessed so many near misses with MidEast peace; thanks for bringing up one of the closest: Rabin! I do think those suggesting Israel doesn’t have the stomach to clear Gaza are wrong. This is a sea change moment for them. They will resume the argument over who is to blame and the Netanyahu changes to the government eventually, but now it’s all business. Some seem to forget the way the Germans cleared the Warsaw Ghetto, or how the Soviets did subsequently there and in Berlin. You tell everyone which block is going, and they either leave or go down with it. People naturally leave. And as space gets smaller, more leave. Its brutal, but costly only in terms of shells, not IDF lives. I fear that is where we are headed.
Peace is a lovely idea- a great aspiration- but unattainable. The human animal cannot seem to reach the decency that most religions espouse. As a brainwashed and naive young man I have seen and to some degree been involved in man’s inhumanity to man. In the hindsight of maturity and experience, I am no longer numb to the horrors of humanity. Decapitation of babies and the rape of children are so far beyond the imagination that I wonder if there is a future for humanity or if we deserve one.
Pat, thanks for this- I was curious what your thoughts were. you and likely the others know more about the middle east and foreign policy than I ever will. My greatest concern about this is that if I were setting strategy for Hamas, I would know that there is zero chance that I could beat Israel head on, and Israel is likely too savvy and competent to be drawn house to house.
I’d want to goad Israel into an emotional overreaction, and then hope that the correct dominos fall to result in the US being forced to reduce its support for Israel. Israel has been able to stand for 75 years give or take, but that has been with strong support from the west particularly the US. Weakening that US support would likely make all the difference in Israel’s longevity.
Some shaky dominos…The US has been unpredictable in its support for Israel, and some members of Congress are anti-Israel. Media and universities with wealthy activist students seem to be the most anti-Israel they’ve been. Already there are many media outlets stirring moral outrage against conditions for Palestine prior to this war, as well as Israeli response. Media+activists= changing discourse and messaging around war, pressuring politicians, many of whom cant stand up to cancel culture pressure.
I just hope that Israel can be “smart” about this. For instance, Is there a way to provide medical supplies/ support for instance to the people via a DMZ while still hammering at Hamas? All Palestinians are not Hamas I’d think. Maybe a balance of some carrot and compassion along with the mighty stick of punishment?
Otherwise hyper aggressive short term actions might result in medium to long term strategic losses.
Curious what you think
Dan, I agree with your critique. I would say my characterization is about Israel’s strategic goals, but they need to be smart as you say in application. If they overplay the violence (or let others capture the narrative) they could fail to achieve their goals. The key is to be as humanitarian to the innocent Palestinian captives in Gaza, while insisting all Hamas personnel suffer the consequences. But I hope I didn’t suggest that would be easy, because it won’t.
Hamas is, of course, a horrific terrorist organization, whose basic view is the destruction of Israel, the death of Jews, and the creation of an Islamic state (which most Palestinians likely would not want, given the example of Iran and even Saudi Arabia) in the territory of what would be an Israel with no Jews. The Netanyahu govt purposely let Hamas more or less alone (let Qatar give them money, let 20K Gazans work in Israel, let the EU and UN provide money and aid, etc.); except for the occasional strikes back and forth; this was partly done to divide the Palestinians and avoid dealing with anything that looked like a two-state solution. However, Netanyahu’s vision of a semi-tamed or semi-caged Hamas has fallen apart by the bloodthirsty and inhuman actions of the past week.
Many Israelis, while rallying to Israel’s defense after this monstrous attack, are blaming Netanyahu’s government—partly for not offering Israelis near the Gaza border any kind of real defense or security and letting the attacks play out for literally 6-8 hours. This is clear from the Israeli press in the past week.
I agree that Hamas should be destroyed—they are thugs even to the population in Gaza. However, the argument that “All military age men in Gaza…must lay down their weapons and surrender to be repatriated to whatever nation will accept them” will not work. First, Hamas fighters will likely rather die as martyrs than surrender. And their view likely will be that if the rest of the Gazan population has to die int the process, so be it. Second, Arab states do not want them. No Arab state. Even Egypt, literally next door refuses to take in Gazans. Remember that Palestinians (at that time run by the PLO not Hamas) were in Lebanon for decades and were never integrated into Lebanese society, which had and still has tribal and religious problems of its own and is practically a failed state. Palestinians were/are useful as a stick with which to beat Israel, but in reality, most Arab states do not really want to solve the Palestinian problem, never mind the Hamas problem.
There is the further problem for the Israelis of going into a densely populated area like Gaza. There is the likelihood of massive civilian casualties. But the prosecution of the war itselfwill likely be difficult. For example, LTG Mark Hertling (ret) has noted, regarding the likely coming ground invasion in the Gaza, that “Those underground tunnels that were so ubiquitous during the 2014 war — and really caused some problems for the Israelis — there are going to be many more miles of them. Hamas is going to be fighting from underground, and they probably have a very good plan since there were indications that they were taking hostages for a purpose: they have a very good plan of putting them in locations that could be booby-trapped, that could be awaiting the Israeli forces. You know philosophers have said over the years that ‘War is hell.’ Having fought in urban operations, I’d say that fighting in an urban terrain is ‘War is hell in your worst nightmare.”
Perhaps the IDF has figured out a way to defeat Hamas—it certainly has the will to do so after the atrocities committed by Hamas–but it will likely be a hard, uneven slog.
–Joel Shapiro
Useful insight as always, Joel!
You are absolutely right about Arab nations willingness to accept Gazans. It’s the linchpin of the approach I suggest, and the US (Biden admin) needs to intervene with some of them to pressure acceptance. It can be the women & children, with the men staying in mass detention in Israel, for example. There are ways to make it work, but to do so, the US must call in some debts. If we really think this is Israel’s 9/11, then this is the appropriate time to do so.
I take some small disagreement with those who suggest an urban clearing operation. But Gaza does not require this. You blockade the place (effectively in place). You demand the surrender, with a way for those who want to leave to walk out for processing/exile/refuge and live. Yes, Hamas will try to keep people back, and some Hamas “family” will resist; nothing can be done about that. Then you publicly announce which block of the strip is being reduced on Monday, and reduce it using standoff artillery, missiles, etc. You leave it rubble for a few days while you prepare to secure it. Then you move on to the next block. As the space decreases, more people choose to surrender,as it becomes apparent you’re not fighting them out of the buildings room by room, you’re eliminating the city. In a classic urban clearing, you want to retain as much of the city as possible. In this type of operation, you don’t. Israel doesn’t necessarily need or want a Gaza strip problem in the future. Yes, Hamas can continue to fight from the tunnels for some time, but under a blockade, with rubble on top of them, the end will be near. This was how the Russians cleared Warsaw and Berlin in WWII, and it worked.
I am afraid the old Israeli concept applies here that you assume all the hostages are dead at the start, then try your best to recover any you can. I have little doubt that Hamas will kill all of them, regardless what Israel does next. It is after all Hamas’ mission statement.
I do agree it will be dangerous, and there is a chance the brutality of Israel’s assault becomes the story in place of Hamas’ provocation. But that is a risk Israel must accept. Similar concepts were raised about the US post 9/11. People forget that we effectively reduced the Taliban and chased Al Qaeda to Pakistan in short order. We failed at later nation-building (both there and Iraq), but those were later strategic choices, arguable ones at that. There is a slim chance here for the US and Israel to break Hamas, possibly leave the PA in charge in the territories, and solve the Gaza problem, possibly tied into the “secret” Saudi-Israeli-US deal. This would fundamentally reset the Middle East in a way we haven’t seen since 1967.
Good overview, Pat. The What Should Happen section, however, brings with it a host of problems. Forced exile only intensifies terrorism. We’ve seen that with Palestinian refugees in Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria. Other Arab stars only want educated Palestinians. Gaza has about 2.3 million people, 65 percent of which are under age 25.; probably 40 percent of them are under age 15. Forcible deportation of 2.3 million Palestinians won’t solve the problem; just create new ones.
This is a horrible situation. Many people have been hurt, many have been killed. Many, many, many more are going to be hurt or killed. I would rather we were not in this situation, but we are in it.
It would have been better for the Arabs living in Gaza — referred to as Palestinians — had the Arab world found a better situation for them 70 years ago when the problem was much more tractable. Now we have millions in a desperate situation, rather than a fraction of that number.
I don’t see that Israel has any choice — if it wants to continue as a sovereign state — other than to reduce the HAMAS fortifications under hospitals, schools, and apartment buildings in Gaza block by block. That means that the civilian population HAMAS has been cowardly hiding behind and among for decades will have to either leave or join HAMAS in their destruction. I don’t like that thought. I weep for the innocent, but I don’t see any way around it. Gaza has to be eradicated as a base for further attacks from a terrorist group which has now graphically shown — thanks to social media — that they have NO regard for human life or dignity. They have no moral compass at all. (Not to say that Israel has been a paragon of virtue, either, but I am not going to go into “Yeah, but Israel did….” here. We can have that discussion another time.).
Gaza is a s**t hole. The young, generationally displaced people living there have no hope and no future. The problem is concentrated there. COMPOUNDED by the lethal threat to Israel from the terrorists. Emptying Gaza will be horrible. Moving the civilian population elsewhere will be difficult in the extreme, but refusing to do so for 70 years has made the problem worse and worse not better. The dire future for the civilians will NOT get any better if they stay. It will get worse. Moving them will, at the very least, diffuse the problem and create at least a theoretical possibility they might be able to assimilate someplace else. They have ZERO chance of that now.
The magnitude of what I’m suggesting (and Israel is apparently preparing to do) is daunting, I admit. And your comment about the root causes of terrorism is spot on. I would only say that Gaza has been the world’s largest refugee camp for 40+ years, so we’re talking about moving it, not creating something new. And while things can go seriously wrong, the status quo is unacceptable. Whatever new problem Israel creates, it won’t be a hostile, Hamas-led Gaza.
I recall those who warned the US about Afghanistan post-9/11. Many will say, “yes, how did that turn out?” But they forget we ran the Taliban out and sent AQ into hiding. Subsequent decisions (like nation building) did lead to disaster. but the initial impulse to eliminate the extant threat were correct, imo.